All Forum Posts by: Anthony Michael

We should always have solid occupancy.  None of the hotels are planning for a significant (other than seasonal) rate drop or loss of occupancy.  

My personal feeling is that the lower end will take more of a hit than higher end due to less disposable income on the lower end.  My higher end clients are still doing as well or better than 3 years ago and are still travelling for leisure.  They are also very optimistic about their next few years.

My bubble clients have mainly gone dark and have been predicting crashes in their personal economies.

Airbnbs have definitely taken a hit across the board in the past few months. Pair that with Florida usually being in a low season in the summer depending on the market. Hosts have had to lower prices (stay consistent with your competitors prices or a bit lower) to get more bookings. The winter months should pick back up in FL but there has definitely been a decline in bookings.

I think a lot of people are going to scream chicken little as the market returning to normal (and probably going worse than normal for a short while) will feel like a complete collapse, especially with 2008 in the back of people's minds.

I'm in Los Angeles and for the most part homes are still selling fairly fast and with good prices. 

As far as the real estate market is concerned, it comes down to inventory. Interest rates are in the 5% range now. This forces buyers to do one of the following:

They move neighborhoods. In So Cal we have a diverse segment of markets so if people get priced out of one neighborhood they can go to the next. That can't be said for other markets where there isn't anywhere for someone to go.

A few other factors to consider:

• People are priced out of their own homes. Since this run of appreciation and low interest rates, it would be difficult for a potential Seller to move. If a Seller were to move, they would be paying substantially more unless they moved out of Los Angeles and into a less expensive market (such as markets in Florida). This keeps inventory low.
• The majority of Americans have equity in their homes, meaning they would be better off selling as a traditional sale than go through the foreclosure process.
• Even if prices go down but interest rates go up, a buyer could be paying the same or more on a monthly basis.
• If home prices drop, it is a paper loss for a homeowner. As long as they don’t sell or touch the loans, then they stay the course. Using that logic for people who bought in 2008 the day before the crash, they would be almost halfway done with their mortgage and values have exceeded what they paid. They are arguably in better shape than you and me.

At the end of the day, we are all paying for a property, whether it's yours or a landlords. 

@Anthony Michael

It's interesting, and I'm out of cash right now so I'm just watching.

I'm in central WI, so a fairly rural, stable market. Boring, cash flow but appreciation until 2021 was slow, about 2-3% per year. I bought my first rental in 2019. The appraisal had finally reached pre-GFC levels. Since then, it's doubled.

Time on market here is still less than 20 days, no different for past year. Costs of houses go up every month. I'm looking for duplexes and the sold numbers for that type of assest has gone up 25% since summer 2021. The inventory is slowly increasing, but it's mostly fixeruppers hitting the market now.

The market will crash on January 12th, 2025, at 3:35pm EST.

There have been daily posts on the forums around a market crash for the past couple of months and weekly posts on one for the past eight years.  The consensus - no one knows - and those who feel they know are unable to convince the others who also feel they know.  There is one clear fact - the average earner's mortgage capacity versus the mean home price has inverted swiftly in 2022.  Lots of moving pieces though, unprecedented government actions, no inventory, extreme rarity of crashes, etc.