Originally posted by @Bill S.:
@Andrew Wydra I personally think the time line is much longer than 2-3 years and I have a couple of thoughts as to why.
1). It takes more than 2-3 years to deliver volumes of new homes. Large tracts take at least a year to get through the permitting process and then the infrastructure must be built. Typically the large tracts of land are schedule in 20 plus year spans. My contacts in the building community tell me that no one is going for large now. Everyone is taking small bites and mostly infill. There are no new Highlands Ranches nor Green Valley Ranches on the slate that I'm aware of. Water is in short supply and you must provide water if you are going to develop a large chunk of land.
2). Everyone wants to be near downtown. While that might shift, it won't shift in 2-3 years.
3) Everyone wants to be near downtown and there is a very limited supply of suitable property and none of it is cheap. On top of that it must be assembled, permitted and built in very small chunks (compared to the acres and acres in the burbs) which is time consuming.
Now I realize there are other factors at play. Perhaps the economic environment will change making home loans much less affordable. That would impact things.
I think that the bottom line is, growth pretty much trumps all. Not sure what would slow that train down but I doubt it will stop over night.
All very true Bill. My comments are framed toward the initial post where appreciation would be the strategy in Denver. To comment on your points:
1) Per the ARA Q4 2014 report, there are a total of 18,698 units under construction in Denver downtown and metro as of Dec 31st, 2014. But the total units proposed is 5,885. The data is showing pull back from larger developers since, as you point out, it takes 2-3 years for these units to hit the market.
2/3) Yes, I'm one of those people but at some point, the market is going to price me out.
Again, I think the market will continue to be hot with great appreciation over the next 2-3 years. As with any market- it will balance itself out. I would want to take my profit by 2018 and see what happens after that.