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All Forum Posts by: Alan M.

Alan M. has started 20 posts and replied 79 times.

Post: Will COVID-19 Cause a Recession?

Alan M.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • San Francisco Bay Area
  • Posts 87
  • Votes 87

We're going to hit 20% unemployment and, with social distancing guidelines expected to remain in affect through the end of 2020 and into 2021, unemployment will stay above 10% at least through the end of the year and most likely until we have a vaccine and it has been widely distributed

Post: Selling building, tenant breaks lease, can I keep safety deposit?

Alan M.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • San Francisco Bay Area
  • Posts 87
  • Votes 87

I'm selling a 3 unit brownstone in Boston. I put in leases that required a 90 day notice period but generally treated my tenants well and gave them 5 months of notice so they could get their plans in order as the buyer wanted the building delivered vacant on June 1st. All the units had leases that expired then so it was going to work out fine but one of the tenants notified me on March 1st that they're moving out by April 1st. They're saying they're not obligated to pay for April or May because the 90 day notice period was meant to be for them not renewing, not for me selling the building.

It's in Massachusetts and, according to some Googling, I can keep the safety deposit for non-payment of rent but the complicating factor is that the tenant is 1) a minority 2) a lawyer 3) a town selectman. 

It's only $2500 in security deposit and they would owe $5,000 in rent for April and May. I wouldn't chase down the remaining $2500 but I don't want to have to fight in small claims court, because I live in California and have zero interest in traveling to Boston with Covid-19 out there.

Post: Cheesecake Factory can't pay April rent - other businesses next?

Alan M.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • San Francisco Bay Area
  • Posts 87
  • Votes 87

The Cheesecake Factory, which holds some MASSIVE anchor locations, has said they won't be able to pay April rent. How many other large businesses will be next? These guys employed upwards of 10,000 employees - presumably all will be out of work within a few months.

https://la.eater.com/2020/3/25/21194144/cheesecake-factory-rent-strike-chain-restaurant

Post: Grant Cardone = Douche bag

Alan M.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • San Francisco Bay Area
  • Posts 87
  • Votes 87

In case you didn't think Grant Cardone was all talk, completely over leveraged, and a snake oil salesman...

https://scientologymoneyproject.com/2020/03/24/grant-cardone-lays-off-80-of-his-180-employees-without-notice-10x-being-hammered-by-the-coronavirus/

Post: Grant Cardone / Cardone Capital

Alan M.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • San Francisco Bay Area
  • Posts 87
  • Votes 87

Post: What will be the impact of the Coronavirus crisis on real estate?

Alan M.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • San Francisco Bay Area
  • Posts 87
  • Votes 87
"in the US". Why is that the relevant caveat to include when we've only had it here for less than 2 months? (Jan 20 was the first US case identified). H1N1 started in April 2009. 4 months into H1N1 (August) in the US and less than 28 people had died from it. Most people You should get your facts straight before spouting off at people for spouting off at you (when you're wrong). Then a 2nd wave hit in September and that's where most of the deaths hit as well.  Yes, 10,000 people died from it - but 59 million people in the US were infected. .02A% mortality rate.

You saying "there's only been (insert wrong number) of deaths so far" is similar to the frog in the warming water pointing out that it's only slightly uncomfortable so far. 

If you want a good article on the actual numbers behind the coronavirus, go here. Read the whole thing. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

It's actually above 80 deaths in the US at this point. That's less than 2 months in with a rate of virility that has the number of cases doubling every 7 days. AND INCREASING.

Here's what the American Hospital Association is predicting. Notice the 480,000 deaths. So 1.5x as many people infected compared to swine flu but nearly 50x people die. This is FAR more deadly than H1N1 - 50x. 



You keep comparing it to the swine flu, which is fine, but please use the right comparison. And why do you somehow want to point out who was President at the time, because that's relevant how? Leave politics out. And it's not the "wuhan virus" - only Fox News and Cheeto in Charge call it that. 

Originally posted by @Brian Bradley:

@Alan M. then I guess the medical experts saying it also r, and who are also reminding everybody of it. Death rate. To date 61 deaths in the US. At the same point of the swine flue we had over 1,000. Per the CDC. And John Hopkins. I’ll listen to the medical experts. The economy is on an unfortunate rollercoaster with this and geopolitical games going on in Saudi Arabia and Russia with oil. It’s a bad cocktail. Nobody wants to see the economy and stock market like this. But it’s panic driven and defensive. People r chomping at the bit to get back into it. It’s not irresponsible to state what other medical professionals who are the experts are saying. Just relax! You will all most likely be fine. I expect my wife to get the  Wuhan Virus as she is treating patients with it, and her medical staff. They expect to get it also. None of them are panicking. Same with my neighbor who is also treating similar patients. He is not in a hysteria. Nobody thinks it’s funny. It’s a very polarizing time. But panicking and hysteria is not a way to function. Just take the free time to play with ur kids, family time and read a book. 

Post: What will be the impact of the Coronavirus crisis on real estate?

Alan M.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • San Francisco Bay Area
  • Posts 87
  • Votes 87

I feel fine in my comment. I apologize if you took it to be snarky, but I was more referring to the speed of the virus' spread and effect it's already having on the economy, the stock market, and every day life. That could have been more clear.

I do have to say that you're being incredibly irresponsible by comparing the swine flu, with a mortality rate of .02% to Coronavirus, with a mortality rate at least 50x that and FAR more communicable.

The reason China has has such a drop is they moved to an incredibly strict quarantine. We have yet to do this, although it's starting with the shelter in place in the Bay Area and other places.

We look a lot more like Italy than we do South Korea or China. This is going to get really bad really fast, and we're totally unprepared for it.



Originally posted by @Brian Bradley:

@Alan M. pretty good. Media driven panic. The prediction is from doctors and the CDC. Not my own words. Hence the quotes and names of sources.  Just passing along useful information in a panic. But how is ur lack of character doing for u based off your reply? I’m perfectly fine, everyone in my family and community and town are. We are not panicking and just taking it with the severity of any virus. Washing our hands and common sense. Trying to get some supplies not because of the concern of the virus but the mass rush on the stores. We need toilet paper.  No point in hysteria or panic. I suggest you look urself in the mirror and ask what the point of a comment like urs was? The numbers still r the number. They have not changed and still a media driven hysteria that if people just exercise precaution and cleanliness we will get through just fine. It’s a respiratory virus that the elderly or those with underlying immune system issues are most vulnerable as they already are with other viruses.  Where was the mass hysteria with the seine flue in 2009-2010?, Barack Obama, first year as president, 60 million Americans infected in a 10-month period, 300,000 hospitalized. 18,000 deaths. This is just 10 years ago now. 1,000 Americans had died, when Obama finally declared a national emergency after a thousand deaths. The media coverage was different. So ask your self how do you feel with your comment. I just see what the cdc and doctors and other med professionals say. Don’t over panic. Don’t touch your face. Wash you hands. Get fresh air.  China has already reported they r in the downside and have almost zero new cases. It will pass. No need for panic, or hysteria, or rude smart %#* comments to strangers to make urself feel better about yourself. Relax and be with your family and friends and maybe do some meditation and inner work on yourself and character if that’s how you talk to people with a different view then you. 

Post: What will be the impact of the Coronavirus crisis on real estate?

Alan M.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • San Francisco Bay Area
  • Posts 87
  • Votes 87
I'd wait, if you have cash, you'll be able to get a better deal once people realize what this has done to the labor market.

Originally posted by @Brian Alvarado:

@Ron Singh I am under contract closing date would be April 19 ,am going to house hack a 3 fam.

Opinion on should I wait to prices drop? Thanks

Post: What will be the impact of the Coronavirus crisis on real estate?

Alan M.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • San Francisco Bay Area
  • Posts 87
  • Votes 87
1. You want us to trust Dr. Drew? Really? That's your source of factual medical advice??
2.  You said "COVID is no worse than the flu and actually less of the population is effected by this virus in comparison to the flu." - this is completely wrong. 
3. The only accurate thing you said was listen to the CDC - which has said this is incredibly dangerous and recommended shelter in place.

Just 4 days later, your post didn't age so well...

Originally posted by @Justin Frank:

Media has done a fantastic job marketing this illness and with everything that is going on with oil/gas it couldn’t have come at a better time. My wife is a PA and I work in the fire service. We have had many of briefings by doctors on this virus. COVID is no worse than the flu and actually less of the population is effected by this virus in comparison to the flu. Older folks are fairing the worst (which is typical) while children aren’t effected at all. I do not want COVID, I do not want the flu, I do not want TB, etc...... with that being said this is a media driven crisis. Is it serious, yes it is, but it is no worse than the typical flu. Could you imagine if the economy was influenced annually by the flu each year? What a weird world we would be living in. It is amazing to see all that is happening because of this. I do not know where this will go and/or end. I do feel it will get worse before it gets better and unfortunately this will effect (not the actual virus, only the fear of the virus) a lot of folks negatively. Media is the last entity we should listen to or trust, yet we all seem to believe whatever they say. Listen to the CDC and get online to search for Dr. Drew addressing the virus and the media. 

Post: What will be the impact of the Coronavirus crisis on real estate?

Alan M.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • San Francisco Bay Area
  • Posts 87
  • Votes 87
How's it looking now, just 4 days later, with shelter in place in multiple cities, schools closed almost nationally, and businesses everywhere feeling it. 

It won't hit real estate for a few months, but it'll hit.

Originally posted by @Samuel Koch:

@Kevin Lefeuvre

In my market, Hampton Roads in Virginia, we are just not experiencing effects of the virus with event closures and shortages in our grocery stores. As to the market, lower interest rates are encouraging new buyers to start shopping. Unfortunately, with an extreme shortage of properly priced inventory available, our buyers are able to take advantage of these incredibly low rates.

What does these mean for investors? What I'm seeing, especially in the multi-family, are higher prices. MFR listings are selling in hours, over asking, with few to no contingencies. This may be great for sellers, but limits some high cash flow opportunities.

Just my 2 cents