Originally posted by @Derrick E.:
See if you can get out of the renos. Why does it need $20k in renovations? People are currently renting it for $450. Why do you have to do anything to continue renting it out at the same rate?
Understood. The current owner has delayed a heck of a lot of repairs. I was deliberately over-estimating at 20k, because I know things always cost more than expected. My rough numbers were:
$3-4 k can't be avoided stuff like a new water heater, fixing plumbing and electrical, water damaged ceilings, and exterior stairs to upstairs apartment, etc.
$3-4k because the upstairs HVAC is from 1980 and can't be trusted not to die any minute
slightly less than $5k- replacing all the windows. This one is avoidable-at least in the short term- as long as at least one or two work for fire exits. They aren't cracked, but the seals are broken and they fall out of the frames.
$5-6k, cosmetic stuff like removing all the damaged carpet and replacing with laminate and fixing sheet rock/painting and other pretty-ness. This would let me raise rent. $600 might be a stretch, but $550 seems doable.
I left the seller with an offer for $55k. If I do the unavoidable and the cosmetic afor $10k and left the rent the same, the COC would be something like .24. With the cosmetic stuff I would be gambling that higher rent to help cover the eventual HVAC and windows, or a BRRR to take cash out.
I don't expect the seller to take the offer. He has a price stuck in his head and his realtor isn't succeeding in persuading him. Maybe I'll see if it is still on the market in 6 months to make a new offer. But there are plenty of other options to consider, so probably not.