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All Forum Posts by: Al Fernandez

Al Fernandez has started 0 posts and replied 19 times.


When you say local county/ state are you referring to the County Property Appraiser site?

Not sure about nationally but in Florida the County Property Appraiser

sites I have checked have all listed the Trim notices and property tax

information and assessment values.

Originally posted by @Colin M.:
Hi there

Im a NYC based investor, investing throughout the country but find it hard to get clear data on state/local taxes for other parts of the country!

Where would you guys recommend i search online? The local county/state websites tend to get very confusing/detailed/unnecessary with certain info.

Is there a central website that just shows me the taxes laid out in black and white, state by state, county by county?


When you say local county/ state are you referring to the County Property Appraiser site?

Not sure about nationally but in Florida the County Property Appraiser
sites I have checked , have all listed the Trim notices and property tax
information and assessment values.

Originally posted by @John Geeslin:

I recently purchased a nice 2 BR/ 2 Bath condo in North Naples FL. Any advice on the best way to find good seasonal tenants without giving away all the profits?

Since its a condo, you can also check with the HOA. They sometimes will handle rentals for a small fee or for free. A simple way to check is go to the HOA website and if they do rentals then its likely that you will find a posting on their site for other units.

Might be worth checking.

Post: Do you want a recession?

Al FernandezPosted
  • Posts 20
  • Votes 11
Originally posted by @Caleb L.:

Yes. Why?

1) The markets are way to bullish!

2) Interest rates are so low, it's already to dangerous!

3) The market needs to be reset.

Right now the interest rates are so low. And that drives corporate and consumer debt of the charts. There has been more debt taking out by corporations and consumers than ever before! And when a recession comes, and interest rates rise back up to 6%-10%, people will stop getting loans and have trouble paying them of. The banks will also collect as many mortgages as they can, to pay of their debt!

Here's how it should work:

5%-8% interest in good times, so the debt of corporations and people won't be so crazy in the good times. And a 2%-4% interest rate in bad times. That low interest will fuel more corporate debt, which is needed in recessions, in order for companies to stay alive. That would make sure American corporations would have a lot better chance of staying alive during recessions.

But, right now we have it back words! And win the next recession comes, it will hurt because the FED can't lower the interest any more to fuel back up the economy.

Result: Companies go bankrupt do to high interest rates because the FED can't lower them any lower. And we head into a really hard time! Not saying another depression will happen. I'm just giving facts. And the fact is this: The FED should raise the interest rate slowly up to about 7%-8% now. That gives them a lot of space to cut it in recessions. Which means that corporate debt will slow now, and in the recession, with interest rates low, corporations will be able to take out debt to stay alive.

But, unfortunately, that's a pipe dream! :(

Taking politics out of the picture the supposed game from the fed is to prevent an actual recession from starting by getting ahead of it. Once a recession starts its hard to slow it down which is dangerous since the rates are low already ( without much room avoiding negative rates). So their thought is to drop now , give the economy a little boost then start to raise again down the road. Kind of a one step at a time methodology (drop raise till you can raise raise ) . 

IMO I think the issue is more with the cost of big purchases (cars,homes,etc) exceeding what the market will bare. In my area we have low inventory, low interest rates, strong local economy, and houses are not selling like they were previously with large inventory. That indicates to me that prices are likely to high. The problem will be if people can afford to adjust their prices and must sell. If many cant adjust their prices and have to sell then we got a problem and a market correction will be on the way.

However, its a high stakes dangerous game and consumer debt will also determine if the feds one step at a time methodology will work. If lowering the rate doesn't work then the result will be the same anyways due to consumer debt. Not saying I completely agree or have 100% faith in their strategy , but I can see what they are trying todo.

In my area (swfl) and the specifics I'm looking at it appears that a market correction has been happening. The interest rate are low, the inventory is low , and houses are taking 8+ months to sell.

However, I don't think it will be like the previous crash, but  do think there is a correction coming especially with the foreign buyers leaving the market. 

I have also started getting calls from several different realtors and new constructions builders asking me if I'm interested at looking at properties who I only associated with 2 or more years ago when I looked at one of their listings. out of the blue they are reaching out to me after complete silence for the last 2 years. Interesting enough I'm seeing the local NABOR representatives on the news talking about how different the swfl market is from the rest of the nation and how great things are. The funny thing is that when the market is hot they don't spend their money or time telling people how great it all is. This was something I noticed right before the last crash. 


However, take that with a grain of salt since those are my own economic tell signs with no actual scientific backing. Just based on some anecdotal observations from the last crash. 

As Bryan mentioned above contact the HOA and send them the pictures that the hedges have been trimmed.

Unfortunately I have found that sometimes an HOA is like going back to highschool and cliques. If you are not attending and socializing with the HOA they take it personally and you have a target on your back.

Good luck. By any chance is this down in SWFL area? 

Originally posted by @William Glass:

@Al Fernandez Really great information and advice. Thanks for sharing in great detail Al! 

Where are you investing if you decided not to do new construction in SWFL?

We ended up purchasing an already existing home in the Naples area. However, right now we feel the prices in the swfl area are a bit inflated and are due for a correction.

We keep an eye on it and every once in a while a deal pops up, but lately its been pretty difficult to find something .

IMO The market appears to indicate the prices are a bit high, since interest rates are low and despite a low inventory they aren't selling all that quickly (8+months after listing).

Originally posted by @Pasquale Zingarella:

Hi! I am looking for a builder in the Fort Myers area. Looking to build on a plot of land already owned in Northeast Fort Myers.

This will be a simple entry home 3/2 1400-1600 sq ft to flip or rent out. 

Please let me know of any recommendations! Thanks!

@Jordan Williamson @Brit Foshee @Gabriel F. @Kevin Dong @Brad Ruttenberg @Mike Terry @Peter Davis

 You are pretty brave to build down here in southwest Florida. We did it once about 15 years ago and had friends that also experienced nothing but bad things. The best comment I have heard was it was not as miserable as we thought it was going to be. This was in a wide range of price homes including 2M+

We decided not to build after doing some research and noticing the industry hadn't gotten any better, even though we felt we could get more bang for our buck. Just wasnt worth the headache.

However if you decide to build then I would suggest.

1. look at their license status and any complaints filed against them. Also search under the name of the business AND under the name of the owners. 

We found some that their current business was clean , but after searching under the owners name found that they had previously owned other constructions companies and after negative reviews with them they would start new companies.

https://www.myfloridalicense.c...

2. Ask for 5 references

3. Ask for permission to Look at their current jobsites.

4. Talk to the subcontractors about the builder

5. Talk to friends and such that have build

6. Talk to a real estate attorney that specialized in construction before deciding what builder to use and signing any paperwork.

7. Ask for a copy of their contract to review at home and with your attorney. We weeded out a few builders immediately that were hesitant to give a copy of their contracts.

8. Ask for everything including the sales pitch to be in writing either-wise its not going to happen.

9. review the contract with fine tooth comb. We found the contract to be VERY one sided in favor of the builder. For example one of the contracts stated that the home owner would be responsible for change order.

Sure no problem, if I change my mind or make changes after the fact I should pay and be penalized. However, the contract also  was written where change orders due to the builder fault would also negatively impact the homeowner. So if you and the builder decided on appliances, tile, etc and they could no longer get those appliances or tile, etc the home owner would have to pay for the change order and be penalized for it. When I questioned them on that there response was " dont worry about it, will make it right" . Yeah right these were the same people that had another previous construction company that went belly up due to complaints and lawsuits.

So take nothing at their words.

10. look online for reviews and BBB and years in service.

Good luck especially right now when the construction down here is booming and most reputable  builders can pick an choose what jobs they take. Down here their is big buck and they good ones are rightfully going for the jobs that start at 1M+ . The others have an attitude where they think you are lucky to throw your money at them and beg for their services. 

Originally posted by @Irene Struif:

Hello, does anyone have a step-by-step checklist for the self-closing process in Florida?  THANKS!

I have closed on a few properties a long time ago and it really wasn't that difficult from what I recall and I had zero experience at the time and zero issues as well.

However, now I would suggest calling a local real estate attorney and ask about their services to write the contract and perform the closing for you.

It could save you some big money with the realtor commission and besides you are getting valid legal advice and minimizing your legal risks . In my area To draft the contract is around 250-500 bucks and they also perform the closing like anywhere else.