All Forum Posts by: Alex Mayberry

+1 for adblocker

 I was talking about price. It was sort of an aside, I know you were talking about cap rates.

How are these unemployment statistics calculated? If it's gov data, it likely doesn't include people who are not actively looking for a job, but still unemployed. That brings the number much lower than what is commonly thought of as unemployed. I'm not sure if there have been changes in the way it has historically been calculated, but I don't trust unemployment numbers enough to make investment decisions solely based on them.

@Johann Jells Regarding your price and cap rate graph, would you agree that there are markets in the US that have less pronounced peaks and troughs? Would you still worry about a bust in these markets? Would waiting for the bust be worth the opportunity cost of not investing now?

Also, the peak from 2006 to 2015 in the graph shows a 22% gain in prices. However, this is a nominal gain. Assuming 2% inflation, the real (adjusted for 2% inflation) gain is basically zero. So basically average prices haven't gone anywhere since 2006.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying one can never be too confident one way or the other. US stocks have been overvalued for years without a crash, real bond yields are negative in most of the world. Sometimes things don't seem to play out as we expect.