@Jay Hinrichs
You are right, many guys in BP play a “gambling” game of appreciation.
This is the biggest argument of the “pro leverage at the sky” guys. In some discussions they come with 1 property x 10 properties, and put 5% appreciation per year like this is sooooo normal to have.
I am not discussing if thats possible. You will see some markets. But there are markets you will see it opposite. Economics usually dictates.
To me, appreciation is a cherry in the cake. If cash flow justifies, the appreciation will give the jackpot.
In my case, return ex ante of 4.5% does not justify the risk, plus inventory was under the water for some time... and the constant fight against costs, insurance, tax, plus the scenario of increase capex ( that potentially would depreciate even more the return) made me take a decision.
I am focusing on a development in Florida, and started to study new cities.
I open a small business in Brazil, focused on foreclosures. I will do the same in US.
If i can have a team in place, i am thinking if i should try a shot in being a lender.