All Forum Posts by: Amit Kal

@Jess White Venmo and ApplePay have been working well so far for my tenants.

Originally posted by @Sam Barna:

Hey @Amit Kal, I realize you're based over in Queens but do you think that this might have effects as far out as Nassau County? Just a few weeks ago, homeowners were informed by the county that the tax assessment system is being redone and many residents are seeing assessed values go up as much as double. Could mean a lot more inventory in this area in the next few years as many homeowners won't be able to cover the increased bill.

I have friends who live in Nassau and in think the general consensus is that HQ2 will have a negligible to marginally positive effect on property out values there. Will Amazon workers want to live there bc of the great school districts, sure. Let’s remember that the LIRR does stop in LIC where HQ2 will be based.

The broader situation at hand is that as the New York City economy does well, prices in Nassau go up in lockstep. A rising tide lifts all boats. So you will always have home owners living on fixed incomes who might get priced out due to rising taxes. I know in NYC, there are programs to help alleviate that burden for seniors, not sure about Nassau. 

Most empty nesters move out of the nicer parts of Nassau anyway because at some point you just can’t rationalize paying $35k a year in taxes with no kids in school. 

@Jaron Walling look. NYC is an OLD city. Even in it's dilapidated state, NYC still has the best transit system in the country. Yes other cities in other countries have much better, cleaner, efficient, etc.  transit systems but what we got is serviceable and imo on the way to getting better.  Where else in the United States do most folks live without a car? Which can save at least $500 a month, if not much more, that can go to paying the inflated rents here :-)

Lifelong Queens resident here and I was also invited to and attended the official Amazon NYC announcement at the Governor’s office on Tuesday - mind you, this was not a huge venue open to the general public; small room on the 38th Floor of his office with 50-60 movers and shakers intimately involved in the deal coming together plus the always entertaining New York press corps. - Proof

Happy to share some perspective.

Local pols are upset. They are not happy the Governor did an end-run around the City Council giving them no opportunity to insert themselves and their (often times valid) agendas into this decision. For perspective, there might be 2-3 hearings for a restaurant to get approval for sidewalk outdoor seating yet this Amazon deal and the MOU which was signed had little to no public input or review by Community Board, Civic Groups and the City Council. Many hope Amazon in NYC will give kids internships though MOU only says it “may” do so. Bezos gets a helipad. Lots of other hopes out there. An MOU is not a signed contract so you will see lots of protesting with some resulting in adjustments and additional concessions being made before this is finalized.

I’m on the 7 train now heading to work in Manhattan typing this out. 15 minute delay during rush hour due to signal issues. Infrastructure, especially transportation is not up to snuff. Decades of neglect, mismanagement and diversion of allocated monies to pet projects have put us here.

This deal will in the long run be great for NYC, especially LIC and the adjacent neighborhoods in Queens. Not to state the obvious, but while it's great, this is NYC and the needle will move only ever so slightly after all the hoopla dies down. I particularly thought this was a good read:

In Superstar Cities, the Rich Get Richer, and They Get Amazon - New York and Washington are leaving the rest of the country behind. Companies like Amazon explain why.

Yes affordable housing is in very short supply. Those who are living in rent regulated apartments will be fine. Those who are paying market rate or below market rate (in non rent regulated units) for whatever reason, will see rent increases, often drastic ones.

In Queens, I predict very strong appreciation for neighborhoods along along the 7 train line which include Sunnyside, Woodside and Jackson Heights. These neighborhoods give you a 7-15 min commute into the office (if there are no train delays). Even if there is a delay, one could just as easily hop onto the bus, take an Uber Pool (<$10) or a bike share. I am 100% certain all three of these neighborhoods will get either Citibikes or some of the dockless bikes coming online. The bike lanes were just completed in my neighborhood a few weeks back (much to the chagrin of nearly everyone that lives here). Without doubt, De Blasio dangled the forthcoming bike lanes out there as a carrot. Yes Astoria and Greenpoint/Williamburg will also pop, but they have already seen quite a run up so I would say relatively speaking, the real impact will be felt along that 7 train corridor. 

If you care to read how upset folks are, just check the comments here.

If you are looking to invest now...

first choice

A house in Sunnyside Gardens (they are landmarked, historic and have access to a private park). Houses here are currently trading for btwn $600-$1000 a square foot depending on condition. Home homes are on the smaller side with single family homes at about 1200 square feet. I almost purchased a two family with 2700 square feet seven years back for ~$900k - now that same home is probably worth at least $2mm BEFORE the coming "Amazon effect"

second choice

would be a non-landmarked 2-3 family house not more than .5 mile away from the 7 train.

third choice

a smaller multi-family building. cap rates will be low in 4% range but if you can hold it for 5-10 years with adequate reserves and money to upgrade, you will do well

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Queens-New-Y...

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Queens-New-Y...

fourth choice

pre-war landmarked coop apartments in Jackson Heights. not an investment per se because you usually can't rent these out but if are an owner-occupant, these will do great.

fifth choice

a condo in LIC - these are already expensive and you'll probably have negative yield but IRR will be fine over a 5-10 year hold

As happy as I am for the Queens news, I was even more thrilled to hear about Nashville because it is the one and only place I have been out of state investing for the past four years!

Happy to answer any questions.

JUST IN: Amazon to announce Nashville will be home to East Coast hub of operations, adding 5,000 new corporate jobs - source $AMZN https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1062351314225639426 Just dumb luck but I have properties in both Nashville and Western Queens.

@Florence Lee fingers crossed Queens is it! As a lifetime resident, community activist and small time RE investor, this would be a huge boost to our borough. I do worry about the strain this will put on our already challenged infrastructure from transportation to schooling but I’m confident that we can work through it.

Out of town investor from NYC. Been investing for 3.5 years. Mostly duplexes with a few SFH's thrown in.

Brian, you are really trying to do the impossible here. This 800k place you are eyeing, do you know what the market value is? If it’s $1.1m, your strategy might work. If it’s worth “just” $825k, then there is not enough ‘meat on the bone’ to be able to get a hard money loan for the down payment, rehab, float you for long enough to be able to flip it, etc. 

What do you mean by “inverted? “

Keep talking to other lenders. Eventually someone will believe you, or sweep under the rug their suspicions.