All Forum Posts by: Aaron Revere

So i am a big data guy. i want hard data on anything i do. So just one thing i want to share here an article/ study i found about multifamily properties in new york city during the crash. 

https://furmancenter.org/files/sotc/Multifamily_Re...

i was an agent in new york city ( got to reinstate that license...) and if there was one place that should have been just fine in the rental market during a crash, that was the place.

yes cap rates increased during the crash, yes they were low at the start,  but still would you have guessed that 20-99 unit buildings were the biggest failures of their area? probably not. and look at the 5-19 unit properties! a relatively low up tick in foreclosure especially compared to the 20-99 unit buildings. 

if some one has some data on why this occurred that i have yet to see by all means share. 

This all meant to be food for thought. not a definitive proof f one thing or another

What i take from this is similar to my thoughts on flipping. You either take on small flip , easy to manage and can be finished very quick, or you go all out with a new build home done really well. Going the middle road doesn't work so well it seems. it didn't work for Goldilocks int the end either ;)  

hey @mike dymski,  can you provide some articles with data about the less than 1% default rate for Fannie mae? 

Carl,

Good on you for going after an off market deal. 

the part i'm not getting is it seems that you and seller agreed on a price and then the agent /pm of the building inserted a 6% commission. So seller pays the commission though so your purchase price is unchanged. it would be different if the agent called back and said , "the seller accepts your price but we need to add 6% on top for my commission," that would of course make it more expensive for you and i would understand your frustration. but it doesn't sound like that is what happened. 

you needed to have a signed contract. all this happened when offer was just floating in the air. 

it sounds like the agent disclosed his family relationship to the seller too

I dont think your agent and pm are being unethical about the matter but the only way i could see you having a case here is if you made the agent and seller sign a non disclosure agreement regarding your offer because then the agent could not tell their relatives how much to offer to out bid you. There are a lot of nuances to this play that i will the lawyers on here dicsuss but that might be your only way to avoid this issue in the future. 

best of luck 

hey @Mandi Martinez

i have been there done that. 

I started a small group investing in flips and hired a project manager to manage the contractors. But the project manager (despite having a glowing resume) was no good! so i had to fire him and learn construction on the spot to save y investors. 

3 years later and now i am a GC. i feel like i had to become one to both make sure the job is getting done correctly and keep the cost under control. The real good contractors really know how to charge  can have that in a flip. One contractor quoted me $500,000 for my job, and i got it done by myself for 110,000. 

you may like me that the best way to get projects is to manage them yourself. I know there are some investors who say no way and they focus on finding deals and everything else is a distraction. I have not made it to that level yet.

You may want to partner with a real good contractor when you find one, kinda like i did when i started. 

man, have i had stressful moments, when all your investor cash is sitting in a decrepit house with no GC or project manager and i dont know the difference between OSB board and green board, and who's Hardie Backer?

man, i'm glad i'm passed that now, and you will be too, these are the moments that will make a pro in the future, 

All the best, go forth and deal!

Jeff,

this was great. 

I myself have been pondering the right DM campaign and i too have arrived at the folks with tax defaults yet before auction and foreclosures that are at the very end of their time frame before auction. 

i am very curious to hear your response rate. That is where the rubber meets the road. from my own reading of the forums there seems to be a difference in response rate and style to send out based on where you are mailing.

i'll let you know how my campaign goes as well and we can compare notes.  

Investment Info:

Single-family residence fix & flip investment in Monrovia.

Purchase price: $630,000

This is our second fix and flip in Monrovia, CA. The house was in terrible shape when we took it over. We brought back this house to its original glory, restoring many precious historical details along the way.

i am using this service right now. I am currently signed up to three states. More than 3 states requires a bigger sign up. 

you can pay monthly and cancel anytime, billed monthly. 

I would say that anything less than silver level is not worth it, a few of the tiles on the home page seem redundant unless i am missing something. i don't see the value in the pro, the gold is the best deal i think. 

also once you are doing one state you might as well get another two i think for the $10.

The concept is applying technical analysis techniques to the real estate markets across the USA.  I am also a stock and option trader so i already believe and have profited from technical analysis so i know it works and have studied for a long time. Before any one starts on their efficient market theory crusade first read chapter one of this book and then come back to me and tell you can't time the markets and get more out of life than buy and hold.

https://www.amazon.com/Trend-Following-Managed-Fut...

  Now the question at hand is does technical Analysis work on real estate markets?! at first my reaction is to say yes, if anything even better than stock markets etc. because they are usually long cycles of up and down up and down. But there is a difficulty, that is compiling the data correctly so you can make an honest graph then apply trend following methods to it as well......

i will have to get back to you on that. i understand the types of set ups that ken wade is applying to the various local markets and they not new, which is a good thing, they have their own track record. 

the real difficulty will be to find markets that are growing at opposite times. so that way when you get out of one market you can move over to the other. So far i see that some markets will start sooner than others and then end so you can move to that second market but soon enough it seems that the second market as well will come to an end, then what you do? if you were trying to do a 1031 exchange at that moment and just had your 45 days you would be pretty unhappy about selling. 

This is a work in progress and i will check in here and there with an update on my success or failure. Looking at a market right now that housing alerts pointed me to. stay tuned. 

i'm hoping to re-kindle this thread. 

My thinking is the same as Greg's. it seems to me that the law (text link below) is trying to stop the phone from ringing and driving people crazy. The law has many rules regarding "calling" and one could argue that sly broadcast is more akin to messaging some one. And i don't think that TCPA is stopping spam emails and making those illegal. So to Sly Broadcast, to me in my non-legal expert opinion, seems like it's more like messaging. 

as i'm writing this i just found an article that says that text message blasts are illegal according to TCPA law unless you had express permission from the recipient (not going to happen) and think that destroys the logic i was trying to build here....

http://www.tcpalaw.com/free/47usc.txt

@Michael T.

Hi There, Bigger Pockets Community,

Has anyone here used REI PRO? its a real estate investing platform for flippers/ wholesalers etc. My biggest question is always how succesful was the service at helping me the investor focus on the right leads and track down the owner.

Any info helps a lot!

Hi Joshua,

I'm no direct mail expert yet, its a work in progress, but i just wanted to mention to you that when you are looking for pre-forclosures a lot of the time the owner is in the midst of selling and just stops making the payments to the lender for the last few moths as they approach the close of escrow date. try and find a way to scrub your list against this so you don't waste money. You can always check quickly on zillow if it was publicly listed but it's time consuming.  

hope that tip helps