Review of 2010 Predictions at half way point

Given we are almost at the half way point of the year I thought it was a good time to review my predictions for 2010 and give myself a grade.

Predictions were:

1)      We will see the peak in residential foreclosure in 2010

 Update: At this point with most of the Alt-A Mortgages left to reset I now suspect the peak in forecloser will be Q2 2011.

2)      The Case-Shiller Index will turn negative and continue negative until July or August which will prove to be the bottom people have been looking for

 Update: Got this one correct and it will continue negative for the rest of the year is my guess

3)      Duplexes – Quads will prove to be great buys in 2010 assuming you can get financing as banks will want to dump these as rents continue to get soft and loan quality continues to get worse

 Update: At least in my market this is very true and growing every month

4)      Great Long Term Holds can be purchase in 2010

 Update: To date I have only secured 3 long term hold, while 2009 I found 11.  I suspect this is because of all the extra attention from the Free 8K from uncle sam.  I am hopeful that deals will pick up after the summer.  In the end 2009 has proven to be better than 2010 ...

5)      Rents stay soft for all of 2010 (But 2011 will see this turn around)

 Update: Very true in my market across the board (Houses and Apartments are off about $50-$75 a month)

6)      Small Commercial apartments 5-40 units start to foreclose in greater numbers providing excellent buys late in the year

 Update: Just staring to see the first wave of these, it could get really special!!!

7)      Government extends the first time buyer program at least 1 more time as real estate stays soft through Q1

 Update: Clearly wrong on this one.  But if we print another 3 months of poor numbers I suspect the government will enact something before the Mid Term Elections.  I hope they don't as we just need to clear the market and get through this and artificial government support creates additional risks.

8)      The Fed stays on hold all year and does not raise rates in 2010

 Update: I think I nailed this one and I suspect they won't raise rates in 2011 either ...

9)      Stock market (Dow) will retest 7,500 before June 2010

 Update: Missed this one but the market feels very unhealthy now and we could get their by end of August

10)   Home building industry consolidates to remove capacity from the system as new housing starts stays weak throughout 2010 as we burn through the foreclosures

Update: I suspect somethings are cooking as we need to take supply out of the market so lets see if anything gets announced in the second half.

In the end I clearly missed some perdictions and nailed others, I give myself a B- (on a curve). 

I am still very active in my market but as I pointed out earlier 2010 has proven to be a lot more work than 2009.  But if it was easy everyone would do it!!!

Good Investing

Z