Who wants to sell and Who wants to refinance? They probably Can't.

This is a fun chart, comes from Mortgage Monitor's October 2022 report.

This is people who financed a loan in the last 2 years

there are 7mm people who have 2.5% loans, and even of those only 3mm have good enough credit OVER 720 and 80% Equity

The higher you go up the Y axis you see there are very few people who can refi (or simply buy another house at a better rate). This essentially means that anyone in the Green is not going to be selling their house.

If you think there will be a lot if inventory coming, it will have to come from people who lose their jobs, or for some other reason cannot make the payments on their SUPER LOW interest home loans.