November East TN Market in a Minute

[Cory King]

Market in a Minute

• East Tennessee home sales decreased 7.8% from the previous month, and decreased 1.0% from a year ago.
• The median sale price was $371,250 — up 9.19% from the previous year.
• Total housing inventory increased from the previous year – up 38.3% from a year ago.
• Half of the homes sold were under contract in 20 days or less, up from 11 days a year ago.
• 40.55% of homes sold for the asking price or above, with 18.77% selling for more than the asking price. 8.04% sold for at least $10,000 over asking and 2.88% sold for at least $25,000 over asking price.
• The sale-to-list price ratio decreased from last month to 97.5% – down from 97.9% a year ago.
• New construction represented 12.36% of total home sales

Data Deep Dive: How's the market?

We've seen our area MLS which covers about 20 counties come down to an average sold to list price ratio of 95.1% and Knox county specifically has come to 96.4 % which is lower by about 2% from this time last year and down from our peak this year of 98.5%. but it's about in line from winter 2022 into spring 2023 which was a time when rates were rapidly rising. In the last year for Knox county specifically the median sale price is up 9.92% and the whole MLS is up 7.14% year over year.

After beginning to recover in July and August, home sales throughout the East Tennessee region slowed up again in September which is somewhat expected as schools get back into swing.

Mortgage rates remained below 7% for the entirety of September, for the fourth month in a row. However, rates did rise back up from the recent low of 6.08%.

The inventory was 38.3% higher than this time last year and is increasing month over month. We're now dancing around the 6000 total single family homes available which swings up as the weekends approach and new homes hit the market and retract below 6000 homes after the weekend and homes go under contract.

There was a 3.2% increase in active listings from August to September, slightly lower than the June to July increase. The median sale price increased month over month breaking the trend of decreasing median sale price the past two months.

The rental market continued to moderate in Q3 2024 thanks in part to the increase in units being built. 1,815 units were completed in the year ending with Q3 2024 with 1,447 expected to be completed in the next four quarters.

These new units brought online in the past year increased the overall inventory by 3.4%, however by Q3 2025 we anticipate demand to outpace supply by over 550 units.

With this increase in units over the past year we have seen the occupancy rate moderate at 95.8%, down from the high of 98.9% in 2022. However, due to the anticipated gap in necessary units we anticipate the occupancy rate will increase slightly in the future.

If you're a buyer right now what all this is telling me is right now is the time to be taking swings while things are cool and before they heat back up literally and figuratively. Take 5-10% off anything that looks interesting and fire away because sellers are taking them and competition is down during this time of year