Packing Away Summer Whites and Certainty: Mortgage Bankers Association Lowers Commerc

[Alexander Szikla]

While the MBA has lowered its growth projections, the overall outlook remains positive for 2024 and 2025. The CRE lending market is expected to recover gradually, with opportunities emerging as interest rates stabilize and maturing loans drive new borrowing activity. Some regional banks are certainly struggling while others are consolidating in bid to become national powerhouses.

Revised CRE Lending Projections 2024: 26% growth to $539 billion (down from previous 34% growth forecast) 2025: 23% growth to $665 billion (slightly lowered from 24%) Multifamily Sector Adjustments 2023: $246 billion (49% drop from 2022) 2024: 21% growth to $297 billion 2025: 31% growth to $390 billion Market Factors Recent moderation in interest rates Significant number of loans maturing soon Property owners hesitant, hoping for further rate decreases Uncertainty persists in the market, particularly regarding interest rates and property owner behavior. However, the forecasted growth suggests increasing confidence among investors returning to the market.