Springfield Virginia (Washington D.C. Suburb) Buy and Hold Thesis

[Peter Firehock]

Hey everyone, my name is Peter Firehock, and I work in Alexandria Virginia as an Acquisitions Associate for a real estate investment fund called BPG Holdings, helping the fund source multi-family investment opportunities in Northern Virginia and D.C.m as well as an investment-focused realtor in the D.C. Metro area. 

This means I am constantly researching different sub-markets in the D.C. area to try and find the best locations for future growth as our fund looks to buy and hold our investments as do many of my clients. I believe Springfield Virginia is a great market to look at for future growth in the D.C. area. Particularly around the Springfield Town Center, where 2 million square feet of commercial space and thousands of residential units are in the works by property owner Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust (PREIT), to be delivered by 2026.

Below I will go into the reasons why Springfield Virginia real estate market has strong potential for future growth in the coming years

Springfield Town Center is Approved to add 2 million Square Feet of Commercial Space and Thousands of Residential Units, Coming in 2026

Although many malls suffered greatly during COVID-19, certain malls have begun to make a comeback, such as the Springfield Town Center, which not only is at pre-pandemic levels of visitors and retail vacancy of 4%, but the average time of visit has increased for the mall. The owner of the mall, Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust (PREIT) has attributed this to the mall's strategic positioning and continued development of experience-related retailers. This is evident already in the 32,000 square-foot Lego Discovery Center built last August, the coming Build-a-Bear to the mall, and community events PREIT has organized such as Taste of Springfield, and Cherry Blossom Festivals.

*New Lego Discovery Center, First in the D.C. area*

Certain retailers are also finding having a brick-and-mortar to be useful, especially in major destination points like Springfield Mall. Many people buying items online, especially clothes, very much appreciate the ability to have a store nearby to seamlessly do returns at. This is seen in Abercrombie and Fitch opening more stores for a consecutive third year in 2024, despite the recent negative sentiment around retail storefronts.

PREIT, seeing these trends, has decided to expand the footprint of the Springfield Town Center, by turning unused parking lot space at the mall into a mixed-use community hub. This includes 436 residential units (recently reduced from original plans of 460), a 5-story hotel, and 2 million square feet of commercial space, which has already been approved by the county. The development is planned to be completed by 2026,

Inova Franconia-Springfield (2028)

The Inova Franconia-Springfield is a massive hospital center situated between Kingstowne Alexandria and Springfield. Although this is technically in Alexandria, the hospital is just 1 mile from Springfield Town Center. In 2024, construction will begin for 985,000 square feet of medical space at the 21-acre medical campus, with completion scheduled for 2028. This class-A medical office and treatment space is slated to bring 1,200 new high-paying jobs to the district. The development has emphasized aesthetic appeal, creating 2 acres of park space with benches, using top-of-the-line finishes for the building, maximizing the preservation of trees on the North end, and improving the roadway of Franconia-Springfield Parkway and Beulah Street.

Source:
Inova Franconia-Springfield Hospital
Inova gets green light for new Springfield hospital from Fairfax County
Springfield Town Center Redevelopment
Other Recent Developments Worth Noting

The TSA moved their headquarters to Springfield Virginia from Arlington Virginia in 2020 which brought 3,500 new high-paying jobs to the immediate area. Also, the Springfield Town Center is just 10 miles from National Landing, where Amazon's HQ2 will bring 37,000 jobs by 2034

What are your thoughts on Springfield Virginia, or are there any other sub-markets in the Washington D.C. area that you are the most excited about for future growth? Send me a private message or comment below, I'd love to hear what you think!

[Jack Seiden]

Quote from @Peter Firehock:

Hey everyone, my name is Peter Firehock, and I work in Alexandria Virginia as an Acquisitions Associate for a real estate investment fund called BPG Holdings, helping the fund source multi-family investment opportunities in Northern Virginia and D.C.m as well as an investment-focused realtor in the D.C. Metro area. 

This means I am constantly researching different sub-markets in the D.C. area to try and find the best locations for future growth as our fund looks to buy and hold our investments as do many of my clients. I believe Springfield Virginia is a great market to look at for future growth in the D.C. area. Particularly around the Springfield Town Center, where 2 million square feet of commercial space and thousands of residential units are in the works by property owner Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust (PREIT), to be delivered by 2026.

Below I will go into the reasons why Springfield Virginia real estate market has strong potential for future growth in the coming years

Springfield Town Center is Approved to add 2 million Square Feet of Commercial Space and Thousands of Residential Units, Coming in 2026

Although many malls suffered greatly during COVID-19, certain malls have begun to make a comeback, such as the Springfield Town Center, which not only is at pre-pandemic levels of visitors and retail vacancy of 4%, but the average time of visit has increased for the mall. The owner of the mall, Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust (PREIT) has attributed this to the mall's strategic positioning and continued development of experience-related retailers. This is evident already in the 32,000 square-foot Lego Discovery Center built last August, the coming Build-a-Bear to the mall, and community events PREIT has organized such as Taste of Springfield, and Cherry Blossom Festivals.

*New Lego Discovery Center, First in the D.C. area*

Certain retailers are also finding having a brick-and-mortar to be useful, especially in major destination points like Springfield Mall. Many people buying items online, especially clothes, very much appreciate the ability to have a store nearby to seamlessly do returns at. This is seen in Abercrombie and Fitch opening more stores for a consecutive third year in 2024, despite the recent negative sentiment around retail storefronts.

PREIT, seeing these trends, has decided to expand the footprint of the Springfield Town Center, by turning unused parking lot space at the mall into a mixed-use community hub. This includes 436 residential units (recently reduced from original plans of 460), a 5-story hotel, and 2 million square feet of commercial space, which has already been approved by the county. The development is planned to be completed by 2026,

Inova Franconia-Springfield (2028)

The Inova Franconia-Springfield is a massive hospital center situated between Kingstowne Alexandria and Springfield. Although this is technically in Alexandria, the hospital is just 1 mile from Springfield Town Center. In 2024, construction will begin for 985,000 square feet of medical space at the 21-acre medical campus, with completion scheduled for 2028. This class-A medical office and treatment space is slated to bring 1,200 new high-paying jobs to the district. The development has emphasized aesthetic appeal, creating 2 acres of park space with benches, using top-of-the-line finishes for the building, maximizing the preservation of trees on the North end, and improving the roadway of Franconia-Springfield Parkway and Beulah Street.

Source:
Inova Franconia-Springfield Hospital
Inova gets green light for new Springfield hospital from Fairfax County
Springfield Town Center Redevelopment
Other Recent Developments Worth Noting

The TSA moved their headquarters to Springfield Virginia from Arlington Virginia in 2020 which brought 3,500 new high-paying jobs to the immediate area. Also, the Springfield Town Center is just 10 miles from National Landing, where Amazon's HQ2 will bring 37,000 jobs by 2034

What are your thoughts on Springfield Virginia, or are there any other sub-markets in the Washington D.C. area that you are the most excited about for future growth? Send me a private message or comment below, I'd love to hear what you think!

My thoughts are this is ChatGPT. 

[Peter Firehock]

@Jack Seiden Interesting, I actually did write it, all of the sources are cited. 

[Lexie De Stefano]

Hi Peter, I totally agree, and know a lot of folks believe in its potential. Its location at the end of the metro line makes it extremely accessible, and I wouldn't be surprised if down the line there are future expansion plans that direction. I've also seen lots of travel nurse interest in the Springfield area, and some of the nurses I've hosted on the MTR side end up selecting next locations out that direction. Sounds like it's time to open up shop! 

[Peter Firehock]

@Lexie De Stefano Thank you for that input! Interesting you have seen that already firsthand with travel nurses, and I'm sure it will continue as the hospital expands. Metro expansion definitely seems to be a hot topic with the Purple Line coming soon in Maryland and the recent expansion of the Silver Line, I wouldn't be surprised if expanding out the Blue Line is coming down the pipeline soon especially once the commercial development gets closer to completion.

[Chris Seveney]

@Peter Firehock

I moved to dc area in 2009 to do the Springfield town center development. That has been talked about forever.

While I mention that I would agree Springfield, west Alexandria and Annandale are ripe for a huge boom as on the Virginia side it’s the one area that does not have great metro access so the cost of housing is considerably less than abutting downtown Alexandria / Alexandria-FFX county and falls church. (Especially within the beltway)

[Peter Firehock]

@Chris Seveney That's an interesting insight, and can definitely see where you're coming from since the plans were approved back in 2008. It looks like PREIT paid a premium back in 2015 for the property given the development potential which they speak about frequently. 

They were working on getting the property financially stabilized and the development planned before taking a big hit during COVID given their large portfolio of retail. They just fully recovered from their COVID struggles by exiting Chapter 11 in April, and changed CEO's bringing on the former Brookfield Properties retail real estate unit's CEO. Will be interesting to see how there progress toward starting the development unfolds in the coming year.

Source: https://www.bizjournals.com/washington/breaking_ground/2016/...

Source 2: https://www.costar.com/article/1419620342/mall-owner-preit-e...

[John McKee]

Keep an eye on George Mason University in Fairfax.  A cricket stadium was recently shot down, but talks of a town center replacing the parking lot on the West Side of Campus are brewing.  Mulifamily is already being built across from the Field house called the "Main".  It's off campus housing being developed by a private company called Rise.  Perhaps buying this property from Rise can be a a buy and hold situation for your firm.  

[Peter Firehock]

@John McKee Thanks for sharing that, I hadn't heard about a potential town center development for the Fairfax campus at Mason. I will definitely look into that further!

[Bruce Lynn]

What if the next regime downsizes government or we continue to decentralize it?  Seems like DC does not have to be the center of the talent universe and we can put more offices for less money around the country, like the FBI lab in Huntsville, NASA in various places.  Would that change anything in your analysis?

[Chris Seveney]

@Bruce Lynn

They could but in reality it’s not the actual federal govt employees that are the biggest factor it’s all the lobbyists and government contractors that flock the area.

Every large company has a contingent of people here to grease the pockets of all the politicians