As of the fourth quarter of 2023, New York's office market remains in a state of stagnation, with no immediate signs of improvement. The supply side of the market is characterized by a high availability rate of 16.1%, significantly above the 11% observed at the beginning of 2020. On the demand side, both the number of new deals signed and the leased square footage are below pre-pandemic levels. Market participants are pessimistic about a near-term recovery due to the lingering possibility of a recession.

The imbalance between supply and demand is partly driven by the widespread adoption of hybrid work arrangements, leading to reduced office utilization in New York. This trend has resulted in a record 28.1 million square feet of available sublet space. Tech companies, once active leasers, have laid off tens of thousands of workers, leading to decreased demand for office space.

Leasing activity has primarily been driven by a preference for premium office buildings with modern amenities, while 60% of available office space in New York is in older, unrenovated buildings. The lack of growth in office-using employment, particularly in the tech and banking sectors, has negatively affected leasing.

Tenants now have more negotiating leverage, leading to discounts on asking rents and higher concessions, such as up to 15 months of free rent and up to $150 per square foot in tenant improvement allowances. The weakened office market has also impacted the investment market, with transaction volumes significantly below long-term averages.

The uncertainty surrounding the future of office occupancy, utilization patterns, and rent levels has dampened investment interest in the office sector, except for premium trophy office buildings. New York's office market continues to face challenges with negative absorption and record-high availability rates.

Rents in the New York metro area are approximately $57 per square foot, and competition for tenants has led to the rise of concession packages, further impacting rental growth. The availability of sublease space at a record high of 28.1 million square feet has caused sublet space in higher-quality buildings to be priced at significant discounts.

The investment market for office properties in New York has seen a decline in transaction volume, with office valuations negatively impacted across the board. Some buyers are willing to invest in underperforming assets, but overall, valuations may continue to decline due to rising delinquency rates and the uncertain economic outlook.

New York City's economic recovery lags behind other major metropolitan areas, with slow growth in office-using employment. The retail, dining, and hospitality sectors have improved, but office utilization remains below pre-pandemic levels, affecting small businesses in office-centric neighborhoods.

In summary, the New York office market faces challenges due to the imbalance between supply and demand, the shift towards hybrid work arrangements, and a preference for modern office space. Investment activity has slowed, and the overall economic recovery in New York City is slower compared to other areas.
Kind regards,

Debbie Peters B.Pharm, MSc, MBA

Real Estate Salesperson (Licensed as Deborah Nyasha Peters)