Interest Rates and the Middle East

[Doug Smith]

I know that for some of you this will be elementary, but many on BP are not in finance. If you would have asked me a week ago (after hearing Chairman Powell's most recent comments) I would have bet that rates would continue to rise through 2024. Of course, we did not expect what happened in the Middle East. This post is not about the horrors that are happening now in the Middle East, but are simply meant to start a discussion about the economic impact that it will have on real estate and rates here in the US. When war breaks out, the world tends to turn to the US for financial stability. We're seeing people buy US Treasuries driving down the price and, therefore, driving down rates...at least for now. If you are not someone that is in tune with how mortgage rates work, I highly recommend keeping an eye on the 10-Year US Treasury. That will show you the direction of mortgage rates. I look forward to hearing more input and comments on this subject. (the level section from Monday was when there was no trading for Monday's holiday)

[Trevor Richardson]

I anticipate I’ll hear investor clients pausing buying activity for the next couple weeks, to see the direction of markets. 

However the underlying issue of lack of supply and high demand for housing (the US is still several million units short) won’t be changed by conflicts abroad or even here. It’s essentially a US infrastructure issue that’s here to stay. I remind our investors to continue to analyze deals. Interest rates certainly have an impact on deals. If rates start to go down, buyer activity and deal flow and prices will pick up.