Where are we in the real estate cycle?

[Mark Smith]

The jobs market is cooling, prices are beginning to fall in some areas, rates are high but forecast to stall (not continue to decline), and the economy is not growing very much. 

Where does this put us in the real estate cycle? Are we at a trough? Just before one? Right after the peak? Assuming the forecast rate cuts in 2024-2025 happen and spark price increases, doesn’t that mean we’re around the trough right about now? 

Trying to act on the “buy during the downswing” but unsure if we’re in that period yet. How do you tell what part of the cycle were in right now? (Not exactly of course but approximately)