July 2023 Housing Market Update (Chicago Southland Homes)

[Alex Fenske]

Here's my monthly update through June! This is for the Midwest Real Estate Data/connectMLS coverage area of northeastern Illinois. Read below 

Supply – record lows
- There were 30% fewer homes listed this June compared to last, by far the fewest of any June on record.
- Number of homes for sale remained flat at its all-time record low, down over 36% from last June. The number of homes available usually grows by 20-30% from January to June, but this year it has actually decreased over that time.

Demand – down significantly
- Pending contracts are down 9% from last June, but surprisingly held their pace steady compared to April and May which is out of the ordinary; usually pending contracts dip after May.
- June closings were down 22% compared to last year, 35% compared to 2021.

Supply/Demand Relationship – stable, seller’s market in MOST locations*
- Seasonally adjusted housing supply still stands at 1.8 months, unchanged at 1.7-1.9 months for over a year and a half since November 2021. (The major exceptions are select communities on Chicago’s South side, where in some areas supply is as high as 6 months or more.)
- Seasonally adjusted median days to contract stand at 10, keeping in the range of 8-10 days for two full years since July 2021.

Prices – flat
- Seasonally adjusted prices have remained flat for 11 months since August 2022, while prices versus the same month last year were up (1.6%) for the first time this year.

Mortgage rates – higher
- Today's (7/5/23) 30yr fixed averages 7.03%, surpassing the 7% threshold for just the fourth time in the past 12 months. FHA/VA loans are around 6.9%, closer to the 30yr fixed than they have been for some time. There is little discount for a 5/1 ARM (.09), and a .60 discount for a 15yr fixed.
- The Federal Reserve maintained the overnight borrowing rate at their June meeting as expected, the first “hold” since early 2022. However, they indicated after that meeting that they expect two more 0.25-increases this year, whereas previously the projection was virtually the opposite. Their next meeting is July 25-26.

What to do?
- Sellers: Short market times and ample demand are very real but prices are flat as a pancake. Price, prep and stage aggressively as you do need to compete on price.
- Buyers: Compete on all aspects (price, if you can, and terms), as multiple offer situations are back in style this spring with inventory woes only growing. Work with an agent who can help identify inventory prior to it hitting the market and/or work through alternative sale channels.

[Jonathan Klemm]

Real estate is like everything else in life.  If you use the data, buy in the right locations, and invest for the LONG term you will NEVER lose.  

It's extremely difficult to do the opposite of everyone else, but one of our core values is "be different" so I try to do that in every aspect of life...because how you do anything is how you do everything.

One of the smartest things I've heard lately was from @David Greene...most are SO worried about cash flow and he mentioned that "cash flow is a defensive metric, but typically most people are thinking of it as an offensive one".

I love Chicago investing because you can invest for cash flow and appreciation in the right neighborhoods.