How to forecasting future appreciation

[Carlos Ptriawan]

There are lot more noise how to predict/guess future appreciation, some folks are using jobs number, some are using family number. But the simplest one to predict future appreciation is just as simple as counting the trend of home inventory/market absortion rate.

For example, nothing more beautiful than ZHI chart from Kihei in Maui and its declining home supply for sale.

This is particularly a reason, why during inflation, home price keeps going up, simply because less people is selling their home thus increase in the competition. You could see between 2018-2021 there'are much less supply coming to market triggering more price auction in the market. So declining suppy in first chart is causing price spike in the following chart from Zillow.