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Updated over 1 year ago, 04/17/2023
Real Estate Market in Greensboro NC
4 Month Update for Greensboro NC: Previous post in Market Data Thread -https://www.biggerpockets.com/...
*This is the second post in Greensboro NC Market Data Thread*
Greensboro is a large city positioned between Winston-Salem and Raleigh NC, supporting a population of just under 300,000 and employing about 144k people.
Greensboro's annual population growth rate is sitting around 0.15% which is meager, 0.46% growth since the 2020 Consensus has been recorded. Persons over 65 account for ~13.4% of the population. Median age of 36.3, 20.2 min average commute to work, and around 13,000 veterans locally. Greensboro is the 3rd largest city in NC, and 69th (potentially 68th) largest in the US.
In my previous post I covered briefly some of the local investments via companies. That said, I want to mention something interesting from the Gboro Facts Sheets from 2021-2023 that have been released. 2021 put Gboro's Tax Evaluation at $29,448,300,000 with a budget of $619,744,308 vs 2022/2023 (Reflecting the same numbers) at Tax Evaluation $36,800,000,000 with a budget of $688,260,220. This is evidence that money has been pouring into the city, and many projects have recently finished. The city continues to grow, and will continue to see a slow steady trickly of development as it steadily grows.
Greensboro's largest employers are Guilford County Public Schools, which employs over 10,000 people, Coen Health, and the City of Greensboro.
Greensboro's premier school is University of North Carolina Greensboro (UNCG) which as of 2020 reports 19,746 students with a 76.4% full time student rate.
Let's talk crime, then numbers. Greensboro sits at a 4 out 100 on the crime index (with 100 being the safest) Taking a look a the 2022 GPD Year in Review reports, looks like crime has dropped in Gboro quite significantly from 2021-2022. Homicide down 23%, Aggravated Assault down 5%, Robberies down 16%, Guns Seized down 11%, Traffic Fatalities down 12%, Overdoses down 26%, and interestingly Overdose Deaths are up 14%. Good work Greensboro, that's truly a great job done in a year. Gboro was awarded $2,000,000 to help with Neighborhood Crime Prevention, and is considered one the most innovative PD's in the country. They partner with, develop, and utilize many new technologies related to solving crime, and it looks like it may be paying off.
The median home value is a moving target around $170,000, median sale price is around $225,000. Average DOM around 51 with average homes getting 1% under list and pending in 33 days, and hot homes are getting an average of 1% over list and pending in 19 days. A few homes are getting multiple offers, and I'd consider it "Slightly" Competitive for the deals that are going. Either you are putting out something that people are interested in, or it's over priced and not interesting, especially for investors.
About a 51% owner occupied ratio. SFH 63% MFH 36%. Poverty rate is around 18%. A solid amount of renters, supplied with students regularly, and decently high poverty rate, gives investors opportunity to work with in this City. Coupled with the fact Greensboro has throughout history hit random strides where its population rapidly increases, it's possible to see something similar again in the future. Giving the prospect of future Greensboro, a pretty interesting topic to speculate on.
Greensboro has a cost of living ranked as 46/50th most expensive in NC, which means as far as NC is concerned it's one of the cheapest cities to live in.
Greensboro's most recent figure for GDP is at $37.4 Billion, in 2018 they were at $37.1 Billion, the Pandemic greatly and negatively impacted Greensboro for a couple years.
I of course have to mention appreciation in Greensboro, looks like the average annual appreciation rate is sitting around 2.79% since 2000.
To conclude Greensboro is considered "Mini-Charlotte" for a reason. I think if you invest in NC, you might as well look into Greensboro to see if it can match any of your strategies. Price points are agreeable, and the city is growing albeit slowly, but it's not something to glance over. Considering the large amount of close proximity cities like Burlington and High Point- these are feeder cities into Greensboro and help to drive Greensboro's economy. If you are familiar with my posts, then you know I am fond of anything on I-40 and that means Greensboro is no exception. NC has some interesting ideas they want to roll out related to commerce, and infrastructure in particular. I may make a separate post related to the State wide push to make NC a massive powerhouse on the east coast related to commerce. Greensboro will be right on that I-40 line, and one of the key places for goods to pass through. Greensboro gets the green light from me.
Talk at you again in 3 months Greensboro!
As always looking for questions, comments, concerns, and any feedback. It's impossible to know everything about a market, so any value add information is expressly desired, and I appreciate it! I'm looking to connect with more people on here, so please reach out! Don't be stingy with upvotes or commenting anywhere on this thread, it's how I know this content is bringing value to readers.
Cheers!
For more reading and sources:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
https://www.census.gov/quickfa...
https://censusreporter.org/pro...
https://datausa.io/profile/geo...
https://worldpopulationreview....
https://datausa.io/profile/uni...
https://www.realtor.com/reales...
https://www.redfin.com/city/71...
https://www.greensboro-nc.gov/...
https://www.greensboro-nc.gov/...
https://www.greensboro-nc.gov/...
https://www.greensboro-nc.gov/...
https://www.neighborhoodscout....
https://www.greensboro-nc.gov/...
https://user-kcmpnye.cld.bz/20...
Thanks for the detailed breakdown! I love living and investing in the Triad!
My pleasure! I grew up mostly just north of Winston, so I agree with you there!
Great post!
What is your view on investing in student housing around UNCG? I love the area but a bit concerned about the reports I have been seeing with the student population trend.
The enrollment trend seems to be going down. I would be curious to know if you have any thoughts on this and if this trend is indicative of something more long term or is it just temporary as the college recovers from post COVID.
Quote from @Usman S.:
Great post!
What is your view on investing in student housing around UNCG? I love the area but a bit concerned about the reports I have been seeing with the student population trend.
Looking a bit more into your source there, if you check out the 'new student' rather than the continuing education students or both it looks like that is the more concerning data in my opinion. New students is probably a better indicator than returning students. That said, it has been steadily trickling down since 2014, that trend has been holding strong, as every year since 2014 we are seeing that number decline whether Fall or Spring semesters. So I don't see where that trend is getting uprooted in the short term unless the college can discover the cause of the negative trend and rectify it.
I wouldn't blame COVID for what we see in Greensboro, as this trend is showing since 2014.
https://educationdata.org/coll...
I took a wider lens, and I think this may give some better bigger picture understanding of what's going on as well. If you check this post out, it's screaming decline across the board nationally for college and participation. One data set covers College Enrollment Trends amongst every state from 2010-2020; NC trended down by 4.80%. Some states much worse, and only a handful of states saw meaningful growth.
The question would be Greensboro's 2010 enrollment to 2020 to see if it over or under-performed the state average decrease of 4.80%
https://web.archive.org/web/20... I found 2009-2010 here, which would suggest a total student headcount of 18,433 for the Fall Semester. 17,978/18,433= .975 or reflecting a -2.5% in Headcount. I would say that is a good indicator and probably a solid point to know about UNCG and it's student population.
https://nces.ed.gov/programs/d...
Another supporting document that may be interesting to take a look at. This is up to 2021, and would support my claim that we are seeing a decline across the country on average, and not just specifically a few schools.
Greensboro has a reported ~140,000 housing units, 56% owner occupied means ~61,000 total units for renting. With ~18,000 students (Fall) the student's are still representing nearly a third of what the rental market may be supporting, that still seems pretty solid.
Again, I haven't done very much research in this specific category, but it is interesting, and what I just found through my quick looking here would suggest that Greensboro like many Unis in the country, are trying to figure out how to bring their students back in, that said they have done quite well by comparison to other states, and is beating out the state average decline rate.
Based off your research, and what I am bringing to the table here (hopefully all new things you haven't already familiarized yourself with!), I am curious to know what you think!
Thanks for the great question, looking forward to hearing from you soon,
Cheers!
Quote from @Jared Trindade:
Quote from @Usman S.:
Great post!
What is your view on investing in student housing around UNCG? I love the area but a bit concerned about the reports I have been seeing with the student population trend.
Looking a bit more into your source there, if you check out the 'new student' rather than the continuing education students or both it looks like that is the more concerning data in my opinion. New students is probably a better indicator than returning students. That said, it has been steadily trickling down since 2014, that trend has been holding strong, as every year since 2014 we are seeing that number decline whether Fall or Spring semesters. So I don't see where that trend is getting uprooted in the short term unless the college can discover the cause of the negative trend and rectify it.
I wouldn't blame COVID for what we see in Greensboro, as this trend is showing since 2014.
https://educationdata.org/coll...
I took a wider lens, and I think this may give some better bigger picture understanding of what's going on as well. If you check this post out, it's screaming decline across the board nationally for college and participation. One data set covers College Enrollment Trends amongst every state from 2010-2020; NC trended down by 4.80%. Some states much worse, and only a handful of states saw meaningful growth.
The question would be Greensboro's 2010 enrollment to 2020 to see if it over or under-performed the state average decrease of 4.80%
https://web.archive.org/web/20... I found 2009-2010 here, which would suggest a total student headcount of 18,433 for the Fall Semester. 17,978/18,433= .975 or reflecting a -2.5% in Headcount. I would say that is a good indicator and probably a solid point to know about UNCG and it's student population.
https://nces.ed.gov/programs/d...
Another supporting document that may be interesting to take a look at. This is up to 2021, and would support my claim that we are seeing a decline across the country on average, and not just specifically a few schools.
Greensboro has a reported ~140,000 housing units, 56% owner occupied means ~61,000 total units for renting. With ~18,000 students (Fall) the student's are still representing nearly a third of what the rental market may be supporting, that still seems pretty solid.
Again, I haven't done very much research in this specific category, but it is interesting, and what I just found through my quick looking here would suggest that Greensboro like many Unis in the country, are trying to figure out how to bring their students back in, that said they have done quite well by comparison to other states, and is beating out the state average decline rate.
Based off your research, and what I am bringing to the table here (hopefully all new things you haven't already familiarized yourself with!), I am curious to know what you think!
Thanks for the great question, looking forward to hearing from you soon,
Cheers!
Thanks for your reply. I love the area but unfortunately due to the current trend of enrollment, UNCG is not going to be my focus college.
Quote from @Jared Trindade:
Quote from @Usman S.:
You looking for Student housing, MFH or SFH or both?
Additionally what other markets in NC/Schools in NC have you been considering?
Student housing/MFH. UNCW is the only college i had considered within NC schools.