Buy in November Sell in Feb/March strategy

[Carlos Ptriawan]

If real estate is a stock, it seems based on seasonality buying in winter and selling in spring is the best strategy, There's always a noticeable trend within these two seasons. I can see myself, someone purchased an SF in Livermore for $699k ; the same neighbor is selling for $800k-ish now. The house already made $100k. This month between November 2022 and March 2023, is the weirdest season ever in real estate. From one people open house to 100 people visiting the real estate, so let's say demand increased by 100; but supply depleted by 1/5 from June 2022. The intricacies between supply and demand are just amazing.

[Marcus Auerbach]

Seasonality is actually a reliable pattern you can count on, which makes it a strategy and not speculation.

I have bought most of my rental properties in Q3 and especially Q4. It started back in the wake of 2008 when foreclosures were plentiful and banks wanted to get REO's off their books in December. But also the residential market has a seasonality. It is even stronger in more northern locations where on top of the holiday season you have cold, dark winters.

In Milwaukee we have an annual swing between summer high and winter low median sold prices of 12 to 14%. Every year, as certain as there will be winter. Now this has partially to do with more nicer homes being sold in spring than fall, which impacts the median price as well, but fall is definitely a better time to buy. I have actually made a video about this phenomenon showing the data, you can watch it here.