Real Estate Market in Asheville NC

[Jared Trindade]

3 Month Update for Asheville NC: Previous post in Market Data Thread -https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

*This is the second post in Asheville NC Market Data Thread*

Asheville is a medium sized city positioned south west in the state, supporting a population of around 96,000 and employing about 48k people.

Asheville's annual population growth rate is sitting around 1.16% which is phenomenal, 3.55% growth since the 2020 Consensus has been recorded. Persons over 65 account for ~19.5% of the population. Median age of 41, 17.3 min average commute to work, and a bit over 4,500 veterans locally. Asheville is NC's 11th largest city, and 363rd largest in the US. 

Asheville has been working on many projects here lately, and I will list some of them now; A Biltmore development plan, 360 HIlliard Development - affordable and mixed income community, city hall elevators, Dearview community center, looking to rebuild/replace the electric substation in downtown, Haywood st, Jake Rusher Park, Linwood Community Center, Magnolia Park, Mtn Side Park/Memorial Stadium/Oakhurst Park refurbishments and repairs, onsite solar power for facilities across the county, outdoor dining on public street initiatives, playground renovations, Richmond Hill Park, Splashville is getting some needed refurbishments, Tempie Avery Community Center, Vermont Ave Sidewalks. 

Also want to briefly mention the bridge over 1-26 by the Blue Ridge Parkway, is expected to be half completed by mid-2023. 

A lot of those are bond projects, some are in the middle of completion, a couple are proposed, and many are ready to get started. 

Asheville's largest employers are Mission Health System, Buncombe County Schools System and Ingles Markets. Each other these respectively employ over 3,000 people. Likewise the state and county employ a sizable amount of workforce as well.

Asheville's largest schools are Asheville-Buncombe Technical Community College, and University of North Carolina at Asheville. 2020 had the reported student population in Asheville at 10,158 students. ABTCC accounts for 6,601 of those, with a 29% full-time student rate as of 2020.

Let's talk crime, then numbers. Asheville sits at a 1 out 100 on the crime index (with 100 being the safest), if you look at neighborhood scout. Which I don't deem them having reliable information on Asheville. If you look at Asheville's police department, they'll give you everything except the crime rates. I took a peek at some community maps, and victim maps, and what I found was 38,533 victims reporting crimes since 2017. Breaking them down yearly, looks like we ended 2021 at 7728 crimes reported which was 3% down from 2020, and 8% down from 2019. 2019 looks like a peak year at 8,705, which was 19% higher than 2018. That's about the most reliable data I could find without a public records request. https://police-transparency-av... -Section to download their inputted data into this. Doing some simple math, with the numbers I could find, it looks like the crime rate would come out to 0.08, compared to national averages, looks like Asheville is not crime ridden as Neighborhood scout may suggest. 

The median home value is around $363,000, median sale price is somewhere near $455,000. Average DOM around 65 with average homes getting 2% under list and pending in 62 days, and hot homes are getting an average of at list and pending in 34 days. Some homes are getting multiple offers, not as much traction as other places, but I'd consider it "somewhat" Competitive for the deals that are going, but Asheville is on a lot people's radar, the buyer's come out for a right deal and snatch them very quickly, and STRs around Asheville are very popular.

About a 50.6% owner occupied ratio. SFH 62% MFH 35%. Poverty rate is around 13.4%, there is a real potential for affordable housing in this market.

Asheville has a cost of living ranked as 3/50th most expensive in NC, which means as far as NC is concerned it is boasting some of the heftiest cost of living associated with the state. Asheville is known as a very nice area of NC. 

Asheville most recent figure for GDP is at $24.3 Billion, in 2018 they were at $21.1 Billion. Pretty solid. 

I of course have to mention appreciation in Asheville, looks like the average annual appreciation rate is sitting around 5.59% since 2000. Extremely solid appreciation and growth, and I imagine a good portion of that can be attributed to recent years. 

To conclude Asheville is a lovely city in the mountains, and with plenty to do plenty to see and a city that is actively trying to accommodate the growing number of people living in and around the city, Asheville makes for a great potential investment area. The costs to get in are not as friendly as other areas in the state, as you are looking at one of the more expensive parts of NC to live in- that said however, a quick 20-30 minute drive away from Asheville gives investors a lot to work with in terms of STRs, Flips, and LTRs. Asheville tends to be a pretty strict on where STRs can be located. I've spoken with many investors who look to some of the satellite areas to invest in their STRs. 

I grew up and spent many times hiking and camping in and around Asheville, and have many fond memories of visiting there. 

Talk at you again in 3 months Asheville!

As always looking for questions, comments, concerns, and any feedback. It's impossible to know everything about a market, so any value add information is expressly desired, and I appreciate it! I'm looking to connect with more people on here, so please reach out!

Cheers!

For more reading and sources:

https://www.ashevillenc.gov/pr...

https://www.redfin.com/city/55...

https://www.realtor.com/reales...

https://www.census.gov/quickfa...

https://worldpopulationreview....

https://censusreporter.org/pro...

https://datausa.io/profile/geo...

https://datausa.io/profile/uni...

https://www.neighborhoodscout.... 

https://www.citizen-times.com/...

https://livingcost.org/cost/un...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...

https://www.forbes.com/places/...

https://police-transparency-av...

https://police-transparency-av...

https://www.communitycrimemap....

[Mitch Davidson]

Hey @Jared Trindade. Thanks for asking. I've had an MTR in Asheville city limits for about 5 years, and launched a cabin in Bryson City last year. Regarding Asheville proper, I don't think it's great for investment. Many of my friends and lending clients do great with STR in quieter, serene settings just outside Asheville. As I'm sure you're aware, in Asheville proper most homes cannot be rented STR, or are otherwise not too charming for such. And cash-flowing on an LTR in Asheville is nearly impossible, unless you bought a while ago, in part because wages for local employment are very low relative to the cost of living. And then there's small multi. We don't have much in that regard, and what we do have isn't too impressive regarding income. Of course, appreciation is pretty great here, but if the rent doesn't at least pay the bills...

One reason I'm bullish on Western NC is that many people, myself included, move here for irrational, lifestyle reasons. Meaning, other towns might attract people due to job opportunities, family, etc. Here, I constantly encounter people that are intent on moving here, regardless of the cost, due to the beauty of the mountains, the year-round outdoors opportunities, the feel and vibe, their sport (ex: mountain biking), etc. If you want some insurance regarding appreciation, I think that's the kind of market to buy in...one where certain people will continue to flock regardless of the cost.