Hyperinflation or Recession

[Dillon Cook]

I have my thoughts on which the fed will choose, but who knows!?  I have a feeling if push came to shove, they would fight a recession instead of inflation and reduce interest rates again.  Inflation is extremely high already.  Interest rates are high, but haven't affected pricing as much as you'd think in the Tampa area.  Is past inflation keeping the prices high amidst high rates?

Kiyosaki recently said our economy is going into an "aerodynamic stall".  Curious to hear opinions bounce around because IF rates were to drop again in ~ a year, that would affect the way investors viewed deals right now.  

[Doug Smith]

I totally agree with @Josh Green. We started this company prior to the last crash when we saw it coming. I'm not seeing the same indicators that we did the last time...particularly in the Tampa market. I think you'll see issues in markets like NY, Chicago, and parts of CA where people are leaving in droves, but there is a huge net migration to Tampa. Couple that with the a low amount of housing starts relative to net migration to the area and I can't see a drop in prices in this area for the foreseeable future. It's simply low supply with higher demand. Our applications have dramatically picked up in the past 30 days. Mortgage rates are driven by the bond markets...particularly the 10-Year Treasury and not the Fed Funds rate (that will impact HELOCs directly, but won't directly impact the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage). I think inflation is a different issue and has primarily been caused by government overspending, government borrowing, and the amount of currency in circulation (M2...see St Louis Fed numbers). With so much currency now in circulation, prices have to go up...that's Econ 101. In 1990, there was about $3.2 Trillion in circulation (seasonally adjusted). In 2010, it was at $8.5T. By Jan of 2020, we were about $15.4T but that dramatically jumped to $21.7T just 2 years later in Feb of 2022. When you inject that much money into circulation, you get inflation. That's basic econ. That being said, real estate has almost always outpaced inflation and a market like Tampa, at this time, might be one of the best places in the country to own real estate. Sorry for the long winded diatribe.