Housing Price Movement in 2023

[Kristen L Garner]

Where do you invest?  And where do you see that region's housing prices going in 2023? 

Below is some research I have done - 

The following are firms that are predicting that US home prices will fall in 2023:

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Moody's Analytics, Bank of America,
KPMG, Zondahome, JBREC, Yieldstreet, Zelman & Associates, Pantheon Macro,
AEI, TD Bank US, Pantheon Macro, Cap Economics, CoStar Group, Amherst Holdings, ING Economics, Calculated risk, Housing Wire (Mohtashami), Redfin, Altos Research, Kwri's chief economist (Gonzalez), Fannie Mae, Zillow, SP Global.

The following are firms that are predicting that US home prices will be flat (less than 1% gain, but not greater than a 1% decline) in 2023:
Freddie Mac, MBA Mortgage

The following are firms that are predicting that US home prices will rise in 2023:
RDC Economics, CoreLogicInc, Home LLC (Nikhaar Shah), Nardot Realtor.

"Keep in mind, these are NOT all apples-to-apples forecasts/outlooks.
The indexes they're projecting for vary, as do the timeframes." -Lance Lambert, Fortune Magazine JAN 5, 2023

"While home prices in 254 major markets are below their 2022 peaks, another 146 major markets remain at their 2022 peaks. The ongoing mortgage rate shock has yet to cause home values, as measured by Zillow, to fall in markets like Indianapolis, Miami, and Philadelphia." -Lance Lambert, Fortune Magazine JAN 3, 2023

Home price declines from their respective 2022 peak:
Top 5 declines: San Francisco (-11.2%), Seattle (-10.1%), San Diego (-7.2%), LA (-6.1%), Phoenix (-5.4%)
Bottom 5 declines: Chicago (-0.95), Cleveland (-1.1%), Atlanta (-1.3%), Minneapolis (-1.7%), Charlotte (-1.7%)
-Lance Lambert, Fortune Magazine DEC 31, 2023

"Sellers are feeling the pressure of the real estate markets and are actively slashing prices. We took a look at 20 major metros to dig into how often prices are cut, by what margin, by unit type, and by age of home." -Parcl Labs NOV 4, 2022

What This Means: The vast majority of firms that have given a statement about where housing prices will be in 2023 believe that prices overall will drop. Different real estate markets vary widely with price action. For example, pandemic real estate boom cities such as Phoenix and Austin are correcting and dropping more significantly from their peaks compared to cities like Charlotte and Miami, where prices have had a much smaller drop and has seemed to plateaued. (not investment advice) 

[John Warren]

@Kristen L Garner thanks for posting some real stats here. I really like the tiny decline in pricing here in Chicago and I have continued to invest locally here. I also am very active as an agent, and I have been saying for a while that pricing cannot fall much since there is no inventory. I think we could actually be in for a very short buyer's market if interest rates were to drop into the low 5's....