I complete a housing market update each month for my brokerage and for my clients; figured I would share it here in case it's helpful for anyone else. My data sources are Midwest Real Estate Data LLC (connectMLS/InfoSparks), MortgageNewsDaily.com and the St. Louis Fed. You can watch the video or read the outline.

Supply
- New listings down 19% from November 2021, the fewest new November listings as far back as my data goes, through 2008.
- 11% fewer homes for sale than November 2021, the lowest November on record.

Demand
- Pending contracts and closed sales are both down over 30% compared to November 2021 and are at their lowest levels in at least 7 years.
- If it weren’t for the severely limited supply described above, this would be UGLY.

Months Supply
- Fell from 2.0 to 1.9 months, a seasonally normal change. 2nd lowest November supply behind 2021.
- Median days to contract stayed flat at 13 days from October to November. The 12-month rolling average remains at 9 days, steady at that number since September 2021.

Prices
- Monthly home prices were down 1.8% compared to last November, marking the first year-over-year decrease since 2012.
- Seasonally adjusted prices remained flat for the 4rd consecutive month, 3.6% above one year ago.
- Many research institutions have adjusted their outlooks for nationwide home prices to fall slightly in 2023 rather than stay flat. However, housing affordability remains stronger in the Midwest than other regions, and one report ranked the 10 housing markets that will hold up best with 3 of the top 6 areas being right here in the Chicago area.

Mortgage rates
- Today’s (12/8/22) 30yr fixed averages 6.29%, down nearly a full point from its peak on 10/31/22 but still than double where it started the year. Government loans are a half-point lower.
- The Fed is expected to taper their rate increases to a 0.5 increase this month rather than .75, based on inflation moderating a bit.
- Expect continued volatility every time there’s a jobs report, inflation report, Fed announcement, etc.

What to do?
- Sellers: It’s a strange world, where there are more buyers than sellers, but prices are flat as a pancake. Price aggressively and invest the energy into preparing and staging your home.
- Buyers: The temporary easing of mortgage rates offers a fantastic opportunity to lock now. Examine less traditional loan products such as 5/1 ARMs, rate buydowns, and even assumable mortgages which present one of the most attractive opportunities imaginable in the current market conditions.