Invest now or wait? CMHC thinks prices could fall 9 to 18%

[Alek Suarez]

Hello BP Community,

I'm currently looking at getting my second rental property in the GTA (Ontario). After keeping an eye on the market it seems that there are still many houses going over asking especially in the Hamilton area where I am focusing.

CMHC's Evan Siddall suggests home prices across Canada could fall between 9-18% over the next 12 months. That' a pretty dire prediction, particularly when it comes from a government agency responsible for our mortgage market

What are you thoughts on this prediction, and what are your current strategies in this market? Are you holding off on purchasing any new rental properties?

Thanks for your input, I look forward to being more involved in the BP community.

Alek,

[Account Closed]

@Alek Suarez

“Home prices across Canada” is all you need to hear to know this is garbage. No such thing as a Canadian real estate market. Or Ontario. Or Toronto. You’re buying a specific house, with specific flaws, on a specific block, in a specific neighbourhood. And if you predict with reasonable accuracy what that will do then you’ve got no business buying now, or later.

Example: cmhc has been under reporting on the ground vacancy rates in my market for about 6 years. They’ve got the overall trend close, but in some cases numbers were showing HALF what was actually happening. Their data is useful, their people are intelligent, but statements like “canadian real estate could fall ____%” are beyond ridiculous.