Is "Secrets of the Canadian Real Estate Cycle" Relevant ?

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Is "Secrets of the Canadian Real Estate Cycle" Relevant ?

Gurjot Grewal
New to Real Estate · Vancouver, British Columbia · Member since 2022 · 157 posts · 86 votes

Hello BiggerPockets, 

I am brand new to this platform and currently in the learning phases of real estate. The past few months I have read some of Brandon Turner and David Greene books and absorbed countless hours of audio content through podcasts. I feel confident at this point to start approaching my future team and my goal is to close on my first property by the end of this year. My problem is I am unable to decide on a market to invest in. Being from BC I have decided to pursue long-distance investing. I have analyzed Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatoon, Regina, Halifax, Sudbury, Windsor and some smaller communities; Prince George, Crankbrook, Sydney, but I just cannot decide where to start truly putting all my time into. 

I would like to start with a duplex, either half and half or a house with a basement suite. Interested in long term buy and holds, appreciation would be nice but cash flow is a must. 

I feel that what is holding me back is my lack of understanding the cycles of real estate so I came across this book; " Secrets of the Canadian Real Estate Cycle: An Investor's Guide "by Don Campbell,  would this still be relevant to the Canadian markets in 2022? I am hoping this will give me more insight into the different markets we have in Canada, allowing me to finally choose where to pursue. Would also appreciate any advice more experienced investors may have to offer or even pointing me in the direction of more information. Thanks in advance. 

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Marshall Magnus
Rental Property Investor · Edmonton · Member since 2020 · 54 posts · 38 votes
4y

@Gurjot Grewal

That would be great!  I regularly here on the podcast that a person is the average of the five people they spend the most time with. At this point I am pretty sure that in my case all five of those people are authors. I love a good business or investing book but I am pretty sure all my friends are tired of talking about books. I will have to move this one up in the line so I can properly follow this thread.

When it comes to Edmonton I have a bias, I love this city. It is quite possible that I turn a blind eye to its flaws or economic problems. I really don’t know how the future will oil prices will affect the local real estate market, I have a lot to learn about markets, cycles and the larger economics of real estate. There is a good chance that once I do know more the most beneficial path will be more clear. Until then, my stance on making a decision when the choices are many and varied has alway been, if the answer is not clear then the choice is not important. Whether it is a boom or a bust, the best house on the street will be rented. This may be naive but I really do think that the quality of the house (and the margins on the deal) will hold up independent of the local or larger markets.

That was a very long and rambling way of saying I don’t think a person needs to worry about the future of Edmonton as much as they need to worry about the quality of their deal. And I look forward to talking about the book with you!

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  • Account Closed
    Rental Property Investor · Port Coquitlam, BC · Member since 2017 · 520 posts · 527 votes
    4y

    @Gurjot Grewal Welcome to BP!  I haven't read that particular book by Don Campbell, so can't comment on whether it applies.  What metrics are you using to analyze a market? How are you deciding which markets to analyze?  

    0Reply
  • Gurjot Grewal
    OP
    New to Real Estate · Vancouver, British Columbia · Member since 2022 · 157 posts · 86 votes
    4y

    @Account Closed Thanks for the quick reply. The main metrics I have been looking at are; population growth, immigration laws, housing appreciation history, unemployment rates, vacancy rates, diversity in economy, median house price/median rent.

    Sydney I chose based off somewhat recent changes leading to more jobs and population growth in that area. Whereas prior the population had been declining, my thought process is maybe other investors are not considering sydney as halifax seems to be where alot of investors are going.


    Calgary is where my partner used to live and understands the areas pretty well.

    The rest are based off what I have seen on here with older posts as well as what I'm hearing on podcasts to be honest. 





    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    Rental Property Investor · Port Coquitlam, BC · Member since 2017 · 520 posts · 527 votes
    4y
    That's a large collection of metrics... decide which one is the most important to you and then slice your data with the other metrics to see what jumps out at you.  Your list has lots of large centres (with the exception of Sydney). Have you considered smaller centres in other provinces?
    0Reply
  • Gurjot Grewal
    OP
    New to Real Estate · Vancouver, British Columbia · Member since 2022 · 157 posts · 86 votes
    4y

    Perhaps I have gone a little overboard on the analysis, I will take that into consideration. I am definitely open to smaller centres in other provinces. Are there any specifics that you would suggest I focus on in terms of; population size, hours from a large city centres etc ? 

    0Reply
  • Chris Muller
    Rental Property Investor · kelowna, bc · Member since 2016 · 48 posts · 22 votes
    4y

    The book is definitely relevant.  Currently we are experiencing a dramatic boom part of the real estate cycle, however history has proven this is cyclical and eventually will see a downturn, we just don’t know when.

    It will show you all the factor that lead to each part of the cycle - boom, bust and recovery and will cover the metrics you should use to evaluate where in the market cycle your area is in (or area of interest).

    BC is generally hard to cash flow in the more desirable areas, but Calgary and Edmonton are looking pretty good these days.  If you are in BC it’s worth considering how far away a property is if you need to go to it.  Also everything gets to be a bit more challenging with distance and probably the most important thing (in my opinion) is good property management as that can really make or break your rental property.

    Hope that helps a bit.


    1Reply
  • Gurjot Grewal
    OP
    New to Real Estate · Vancouver, British Columbia · Member since 2022 · 157 posts · 86 votes
    4y

    @Chris Muller Thanks for the reply. It sounds like exactly what I'm looking for, my worry was it may be outdated. On the point of distance, that is definitely something Im considering. Calgary/Edmonton would be a hour flight, and on the cheaper side which is very nice. And agreed a property manager is a must for me.  

    0Reply
  • Yan Sully
    Member since 2022 · 24 posts · 6 votes
    4y

    I would start with Calgary if you partner were there before and know the areas. At least you will be able to have a friend or family to check property for you if have to. 

    I personal don’t know enough about distance rental. I stay in my area to manage directly. Once I have more experience I probably would consider long distance.

    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    Rental Property Investor · Port Coquitlam, BC · Member since 2017 · 520 posts · 527 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Gurjot Grewal:

    Perhaps I have gone a little overboard on the analysis, I will take that into consideration. I am definitely open to smaller centres in other provinces. Are there any specifics that you would suggest I focus on in terms of; population size, hours from a large city centres etc ? 


    I'm, personally not worried about being close to a large city centre. I do like screening by population growth and by price/rent ratio, and want a diverse economy (no pulp mill towns, for example). My broadest filter (for long term rental) is no market with rent control.... that takes out many provinces (including BC and ON) .
    0Reply
  • Yan Sully
    Member since 2022 · 24 posts · 6 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Gurjot Grewal:

    Perhaps I have gone a little overboard on the analysis, I will take that into consideration. I am definitely open to smaller centres in other provinces. Are there any specifics that you would suggest I focus on in terms of; population size, hours from a large city centres etc ? 


    I'm, personally not worried about being close to a large city centre. I do like screening by population growth and by price/rent ratio, and want a diverse economy (no pulp mill towns, for example). My broadest filter (for long term rental) is no market with rent control.... that takes out many provinces (including BC and ON) .
    And QC too. ;-)
    0Reply
  • Zorya Belanger
    Rental Property Investor · Edmonton, Alberta · Member since 2015 · 307 posts · 200 votes
    4y

    I agree, it's still relevant. It helps you understand the factors that affect the cycle and how to figure out what point in the cycle you are in a particular market so you can make more educated decisions.

    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    Member since 2021 · 237 posts · 153 votes
    4y

    @Gurjot Grewal

    Yes, it’s relevant. Read all his other books as well except the “little book” which is useless.

    Then read Russell Westcott

    Then read Callum Ross

    0Reply
  • Gurjot Grewal
    OP
    New to Real Estate · Vancouver, British Columbia · Member since 2022 · 157 posts · 86 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Gurjot Grewal:

    Perhaps I have gone a little overboard on the analysis, I will take that into consideration. I am definitely open to smaller centres in other provinces. Are there any specifics that you would suggest I focus on in terms of; population size, hours from a large city centres etc ? 


    I'm, personally not worried about being close to a large city centre. I do like screening by population growth and by price/rent ratio, and want a diverse economy (no pulp mill towns, for example). My broadest filter (for long term rental) is no market with rent control.... that takes out many provinces (including BC and ON) .

     Thanks, appreciate your insight @Account Closed. Will do some more research into smaller communities around the areas I was considering.

    0Reply
  • Gurjot Grewal
    OP
    New to Real Estate · Vancouver, British Columbia · Member since 2022 · 157 posts · 86 votes
    4y

    @Zorya Belanger @Account Closed Thanks for your reply, I have picked up this book. Ill also look into your other suggestions. 

    0Reply
  • Marshall Magnus
    Rental Property Investor · Edmonton · Member since 2020 · 54 posts · 38 votes
    4y

    @Gurjot Grewal

    I have not read the book but I am always looking for the next good read. I will take a look at this one, thanks. As for areas I have not ventured out past my home town of Edmonton but I can say that there is plenty to be had here. The more I read about others on this site, there locals, and strategies the more I see Edmonton as a place of interest. 
    I am sure you will find something worthwhile anywhere if you focus in close enough. 
    good luck!

    1Reply
  • Gurjot Grewal
    OP
    New to Real Estate · Vancouver, British Columbia · Member since 2022 · 157 posts · 86 votes
    4y

    @Marshall Magnus maybe we can discuss if you decide to pick it up. I find discussing helps me reinforce what iv read and makes it stick. 

    And thanks for your insight. I am heavily considering edmonton. Although it seems edmonton has made efforts to diversify its economy. A concern of mine is, historically some housing in edmonton seems to be heavily influenced by the price of oil. Long term do you see this as a concern?

    1Reply
  • Marshall Magnus
    Rental Property Investor · Edmonton · Member since 2020 · 54 posts · 38 votes
    4y

    @Gurjot Grewal

    That would be great!  I regularly here on the podcast that a person is the average of the five people they spend the most time with. At this point I am pretty sure that in my case all five of those people are authors. I love a good business or investing book but I am pretty sure all my friends are tired of talking about books. I will have to move this one up in the line so I can properly follow this thread.

    When it comes to Edmonton I have a bias, I love this city. It is quite possible that I turn a blind eye to its flaws or economic problems. I really don’t know how the future will oil prices will affect the local real estate market, I have a lot to learn about markets, cycles and the larger economics of real estate. There is a good chance that once I do know more the most beneficial path will be more clear. Until then, my stance on making a decision when the choices are many and varied has alway been, if the answer is not clear then the choice is not important. Whether it is a boom or a bust, the best house on the street will be rented. This may be naive but I really do think that the quality of the house (and the margins on the deal) will hold up independent of the local or larger markets.

    That was a very long and rambling way of saying I don’t think a person needs to worry about the future of Edmonton as much as they need to worry about the quality of their deal. And I look forward to talking about the book with you!

    2Reply
  • Account Closed
    Member since 2021 · 237 posts · 153 votes
    4y

    @Marshall Magnus

    A good deal on Edmonton or Calgary will outperform a great deal in many other areas of the country over the next 5 years. That said, type of investment, asset class, how it’s managed and many more things could sink even the best deal in either of them.

    0Reply
  • Gurjot Grewal
    OP
    New to Real Estate · Vancouver, British Columbia · Member since 2022 · 157 posts · 86 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Marshall Magnus:

    @Gurjot Grewal

    That would be great!  I regularly here on the podcast that a person is the average of the five people they spend the most time with. At this point I am pretty sure that in my case all five of those people are authors. I love a good business or investing book but I am pretty sure all my friends are tired of talking about books. I will have to move this one up in the line so I can properly follow this thread.

    When it comes to Edmonton I have a bias, I love this city. It is quite possible that I turn a blind eye to its flaws or economic problems. I really don’t know how the future will oil prices will affect the local real estate market, I have a lot to learn about markets, cycles and the larger economics of real estate. There is a good chance that once I do know more the most beneficial path will be more clear. Until then, my stance on making a decision when the choices are many and varied has alway been, if the answer is not clear then the choice is not important. Whether it is a boom or a bust, the best house on the street will be rented. This may be naive but I really do think that the quality of the house (and the margins on the deal) will hold up independent of the local or larger markets.

    That was a very long and rambling way of saying I don’t think a person needs to worry about the future of Edmonton as much as they need to worry about the quality of their deal. And I look forward to talking about the book with you!


     Thanks for the very well thought out reply. Edmonton or Calgary are where I am leaning at the moment. And yes lets keep in touch! This book was tough to track down none of the local stores have it in stock, neither did the local library .Had to order off amazon, used 2-4 week wait...

    0Reply
  • Stevo Sun
    Calgary, AB · Member since 2021 · 327 posts · 176 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Gurjot Grewal:
    Quote from @Marshall Magnus:

    @Gurjot Grewal

    That would be great!  I regularly here on the podcast that a person is the average of the five people they spend the most time with. At this point I am pretty sure that in my case all five of those people are authors. I love a good business or investing book but I am pretty sure all my friends are tired of talking about books. I will have to move this one up in the line so I can properly follow this thread.

    When it comes to Edmonton I have a bias, I love this city. It is quite possible that I turn a blind eye to its flaws or economic problems. I really don’t know how the future will oil prices will affect the local real estate market, I have a lot to learn about markets, cycles and the larger economics of real estate. There is a good chance that once I do know more the most beneficial path will be more clear. Until then, my stance on making a decision when the choices are many and varied has alway been, if the answer is not clear then the choice is not important. Whether it is a boom or a bust, the best house on the street will be rented. This may be naive but I really do think that the quality of the house (and the margins on the deal) will hold up independent of the local or larger markets.

    That was a very long and rambling way of saying I don’t think a person needs to worry about the future of Edmonton as much as they need to worry about the quality of their deal. And I look forward to talking about the book with you!


     Thanks for the very well thought out reply. Edmonton or Calgary are where I am leaning at the moment. And yes lets keep in touch! This book was tough to track down none of the local stores have it in stock, neither did the local library .Had to order off amazon, used 2-4 week wait...


     Calgary deals are really hard to find right now. Edmonton might be easier.

    0Reply
  • Gurjot Grewal
    OP
    New to Real Estate · Vancouver, British Columbia · Member since 2022 · 157 posts · 86 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Stevo Sun:
    Quote from @Gurjot Grewal:
    Quote from @Marshall Magnus:

    @Gurjot Grewal

    That would be great!  I regularly here on the podcast that a person is the average of the five people they spend the most time with. At this point I am pretty sure that in my case all five of those people are authors. I love a good business or investing book but I am pretty sure all my friends are tired of talking about books. I will have to move this one up in the line so I can properly follow this thread.

    When it comes to Edmonton I have a bias, I love this city. It is quite possible that I turn a blind eye to its flaws or economic problems. I really don’t know how the future will oil prices will affect the local real estate market, I have a lot to learn about markets, cycles and the larger economics of real estate. There is a good chance that once I do know more the most beneficial path will be more clear. Until then, my stance on making a decision when the choices are many and varied has alway been, if the answer is not clear then the choice is not important. Whether it is a boom or a bust, the best house on the street will be rented. This may be naive but I really do think that the quality of the house (and the margins on the deal) will hold up independent of the local or larger markets.

    That was a very long and rambling way of saying I don’t think a person needs to worry about the future of Edmonton as much as they need to worry about the quality of their deal. And I look forward to talking about the book with you!


     Thanks for the very well thought out reply. Edmonton or Calgary are where I am leaning at the moment. And yes lets keep in touch! This book was tough to track down none of the local stores have it in stock, neither did the local library .Had to order off amazon, used 2-4 week wait...


     Calgary deals are really hard to find right now. Edmonton might be easier.

    @Stevo Sun are you looking at specific areas of calgary? I was considering somewhere in the NE. But admittedly have some research to do on neighbourhoods.

    0Reply
  • Stevo Sun
    Calgary, AB · Member since 2021 · 327 posts · 176 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Gurjot Grewal:
    Quote from @Stevo Sun:
    Quote from @Gurjot Grewal:
    Quote from @Marshall Magnus:

    @Gurjot Grewal

    That would be great!  I regularly here on the podcast that a person is the average of the five people they spend the most time with. At this point I am pretty sure that in my case all five of those people are authors. I love a good business or investing book but I am pretty sure all my friends are tired of talking about books. I will have to move this one up in the line so I can properly follow this thread.

    When it comes to Edmonton I have a bias, I love this city. It is quite possible that I turn a blind eye to its flaws or economic problems. I really don’t know how the future will oil prices will affect the local real estate market, I have a lot to learn about markets, cycles and the larger economics of real estate. There is a good chance that once I do know more the most beneficial path will be more clear. Until then, my stance on making a decision when the choices are many and varied has alway been, if the answer is not clear then the choice is not important. Whether it is a boom or a bust, the best house on the street will be rented. This may be naive but I really do think that the quality of the house (and the margins on the deal) will hold up independent of the local or larger markets.

    That was a very long and rambling way of saying I don’t think a person needs to worry about the future of Edmonton as much as they need to worry about the quality of their deal. And I look forward to talking about the book with you!


     Thanks for the very well thought out reply. Edmonton or Calgary are where I am leaning at the moment. And yes lets keep in touch! This book was tough to track down none of the local stores have it in stock, neither did the local library .Had to order off amazon, used 2-4 week wait...


     Calgary deals are really hard to find right now. Edmonton might be easier.

    @Stevo Sun are you looking at specific areas of calgary? I was considering somewhere in the NE. But admittedly have some research to do on neighbourhoods.


     NE is generally the B and C areas in Calgary. NW and SW are the higher end areas usually, but cash flow doesn't really work.

    0Reply
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