Alberta Advantage Immigation Program

[Jeremy Heaman]

I have been researching into the Alberta Advantage Immigration Program, and some of the changes that were announce mid February. I would love hear other thoughts and opinions on how to leverage this, and other programs to grow rental portfolios. I am not looking for political opinions, and will not be engaging in political discussions. I have spoken about this briefly on the real estate investing morning show, and this is slightly more in depth look into the subject.

Recently, the Canadian federal Government announced a ambitious plan to bring in 1.3 million new immigrants over the next three years. This 1.3 million immigrants is broken down into 4 categories, Economic, Family, Refugee and Protected Persons, Humanitarian and Other. Between 2011- 2016 Canada has received 1.2 million new immigrants.

Economic is skilled or semi-skilled workforce that could be used to increase GDP growth. The target is 232,500 for the next year.

Family is people who have marital or blood ties to Canada, The target is for 103,500 for the next year.

Refugees and Protected Persons is on the forefront of the media as worldwide conflicts rage on. The target is 59,500 for the next year.

Humanitarian and Other is targeted for 5500 for the next year.

Quebec and Post-secondary students/graduates are not included in these targets.

The Alberta government has stated its intentions to take "more than it's fair share". And has created some more specific programs within the AAIP. There are 3 streams devoted to workers, and 4 devoted to entrepreneurs. I will be focusing on the more rural aspect as I believe there are less resources available for investors looking to invest in rural communities.

From 2011 to 2020 Alberta has received between 34,541 to 57,841 immigrants annually. This is compared to 12,499 births, and a net interprovincial immigration of 4489. This Indicates immigration as the leading reason for population increases. https://www.alberta.ca/populat...

To maintain current market share of immigrants, Alberta would be receiving just over 40,000 immigrants which is around historical norms. With a targeted increase of almost 50 percent per year, over the next three years, Alberta could expect to see almost 60,000 immigrants per year based on historical trends. 

The Rural renewal stream is designed to help revitalize communities outside of Edmonton and Calgary. Alberta currently has 7 of the 10 fastest shrinking communities in the country, which is believed to be due to increase urbanization. "The Rural Renewal Stream supports the attraction and retention of newcomers to rural Alberta through a community-driven approach that supports local economic development needs and contributes to the growth of the community. The Rural Renewal Stream empowers rural communities to recruit and retain foreign nationals to live, work and settle in their communities."
https://www.alberta.ca/aaip-ru...

"The Rural Entrepreneur Stream is an economic immigration program. Entrepreneurs who want to start a business or buy an existing business in a rural Alberta community can submit an Expression of Interest."
https://www.alberta.ca/aaip-ru...

Immigrants looking to move under these programs must stay for 18-24 months depending on the program to earn their citizenship/permanent residence status. In this timeframe I believe it likely that they would be renting instead of buying because they are new to the area, and even if with significant resources from their home countries, would likely want to maintain liquidity of capital.

Some communities such as Clairesholm and Grande Prairie have programs to target immigrants, such as the GPCN to help attract potential new residents, and help them get settled. This program also helps them get setup for school, and find housing. https://www.gpcn.ca/ 

Clairesholm is part of the rural and northern immigration pilot program. Clairesholm received 5,000 applicants in 2020 alone under the program. Only 20 of the applicants could be selected. This is in comparison to the 3,800 citizens currently residing in the community. I could not find a reason for the bottleneck of applicants under this program, although I suspect it could be due to a limitation of infrastructure and resources.

https://www.immigration.ca/rur...

I believe this, combined with the current debate of increased infrastructure by the province and Elon Musk for rural highspeed internet offer an opportunity in rural communities not historically seen. The increased use of technology such as zoom make it possible to work anywhere. 

How do you think investors could leverage this program to grow portfolio? Is there a a larger opportunity within this program I may have missed? I would love to hear your thoughts on the subject.

[Cody Weiss]

@Jeremy Heaman

Fascinating find! I'm not going to lie, I drank the Kool-aid and took a deep dive into the program and potential opportunity. Look for my bolded sections to see my summaries. 

The rural path has a very focused lens https://www.alberta.ca/assets/.... Below are some of the conditions from the Community Designation for those communities who wish to participant in the program for arriving immigrants.

Interested communities fill out a Community Designation Application form. Additional points will be awarded for communities with less than 10,000 residents.

• Community has an organization/entity whose primary function is economic development for the community that will serve as the community designation lead and coordinator for the Rural Renewal Stream.
•  Community has an Economic Development Plan.
•  Community has support letters from town/municipality council(s).

This key thing is how the rural path is channeling applicants and identify the conditions for successful communities. The need for an Economic Development Plan alludes to a certain level of municipal or regional governance which is capable of receiving and integrating arriving migrants into the region. I have included the Taber Economic Plan which gives you a vibe of what the government might be shooting for and further confirmation of this alignment for entrepreneurial investment through new comers can be found in the actual Taber document itself which I have included in the table below. 
Here is where the real estate side of things come into play. Taber is a Municipal District but it has paired with Vauxhall which is a small town that has seen decreasing population to the tune of -5% growth. If I had to guess, given the absence of economic data, I imagine these regions have some level of industry which is slowly eroding out due to population loss and could be candidate locations of the rural stream. As a property investor, you would really need to do your homework to ensure the identified regions would see arriving immigrants or else you could be sinking money into an house that will shortly find it's way into an ever shrinking town or hamlet. Grand Cache is a great example of this as the town recently loss it's status in 2018 due to population decline. The other consideration would be to evaluate how much time and effort you want to expend as a land lord who would need to drive to potential remote locations to show the property, manage tenants needs, and perform general maintenance.  One other aspect to consider is this program is provincially supported and the next provincial election is in 2023. Pending on what happens, you could be investing in a program that doesn't' carry much longevity if the next party to take control has a different perspective on migrant attraction.If possible, I would try to find more recent Economic Development Plans that point directly at the rural program and then hunt  for a real policy document which outlines how the region would work with arriving migrants to support them. 

If you do pursue this option, I would be genuinely interested to see how it shakes out and hope you find success as the amount of research you have done Is no small feat.

Grand Cache 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

https://www.taber.ca/home/show...

Vauxhall 

http://town.vauxhall.ab.ca

https://www.point2homes.com/CA...