Covid-19 Shutdown Tipping Point

[Scott Passman]

I think we've reached a tipping point where it's beginning to look like the economic shutdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing far more harm than the lives it (may) save.  While shutting down some businesses and social distancing has no doubt reduced transmission, slowed the progression, and reduced the number of lives lost, the second and third order effects of all the shutdowns and isolation is taking many more lives from things such as suicide, drug overdose, alcohol abuse, delayed testing/treatment for other life-threatening conditions etc. Nobody could ever calculate the exact numbers in any category because it's far too complex to get the data, but the basic premise we need to remember is that government officials are only reporting direct "lives saved" from their response and not factoring in other deaths that are occurring as a result of the response and those numbers likely offset a fair number of "lives saved" from the shutdown. 

There was another thread about this started a few weeks ago where I posted as initially being in favor of the shutdown at that time because too much was unknown and we needed to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.  Healthcare systems are starting to get more stocked on supplies and are in a better place to handle more of a surge.  26 million Americans unemployed already, supply chains and businesses failing left and right, currency debasement at unprecedented levels etc. is going to have so many more ramifications in years to come that I think we really need to start opening things back up again.  It doesn't have to be all or nothing, but we need to start opening up businesses and trying to restart the economy, not because of lost wealth, but because people need money to survive and the government printing money out of thin air and handing out with "strings attached" is not they way to do it. 

 I don't pretend to be an expert and know there is so much we don't know, but after 6 weeks of data collection and seeing how things are unfolding it appears to me that there is more upside to reopening than continuing the shutdown.   I know this is a very heated and emotional topic, but I'd love to hear what everyone else's thoughts are at this point while acknowledging that nobody has the answer and that we're all bringing a different perspective to the conversation. 

[Charlie MacPherson]

@Scott Passman There are lessons to be learned from the COVID-19 situation, many of which we should already have known.  Here are my Top 10.

1. The media will over-hype absolutely ANYTHING if it gets them more views, because that's their life blood.  More eyeballs means they can sell advertising for more money and when you boil it all down, that's the one and only name of their game.  The old saying from the newspapers (remember those?) was "If it bleeds, it leads."

2. The second media effect is that of political agenda.  If an outlet can spin the news such that it helps their favorite candidate or party and/or hurts the opposition that's exactly how they'll spin it.  All the better if it still gets more eyeballs.

3. When the feds turn on the fire hose of money, there will be colossal waste, fraud and abuse.  Fortunately public and political pressure on some like Harvard University is convincing some who didn't need the funds to return them, but I promise you it will be many years before we understand the extent of waste on the part of those both big and small.

4. When we are in truly uncharted waters, experts simply don't know what to do - which means that there are really no experts at all.  Doctors are not super-human.  Even the epidemiologists can only give us their best guess.  That means we as individuals are responsible for listening, evaluating and making our own decisions - so long as they don't cause harm to others.

5. Young people are (trying not to say "stupid" here...) ignorant.  When viral transmission was fairly well understood and we knew that large social gatherings were dangerous, kids we're partying on - and getting infected like crazy.  I think it was Mark Twain who said "when I was 17 I could not believe how stupid my father was.  By the time I was 26, I could not believe how much he had learned."

6. When it comes to reopening, the USA is not homogeneous.  The infection rates in NYC cannot be compared to those here in central Maine, rural Oklahoma, LA or almost anywhere else.  People in NYC are packed in so tightly together that it's like a giant petrie dish.  That means that reopening has to be custom tailored to each specific area - not a one size fits all plan.

7. Hollywood stars, politicians and sports figures are self-important windbags.  During this crisis, we have not needed a movie star, politician or quarterback to see us through.  What we have needed are grocery store workers, gas station attendants, doctors, nurses, first responders, food pantry volunteers, caring neighbors and everyday citizens who pulled together to sew makeshift masks out of random cloth.

8. China cannot be trusted.  That speaks for itself.  Communism is not compatible with a free people.

9. We need to bring manufacturing back to the USA.  A couple of weeks ago, a Chinese Communist news outlet (aren't they all?) voiced the idea that they could just shut off the flow of medicines like antibiotics to the USA and we'd be in deep trouble.  In the short term, we need to incentivize manufacturers to make mission-critical goods here on our shores.  

Following that, we need to go from free trade to fair trade.  Whatever freedoms other countries allow for US goods in their market should be exactly what we allow for their goods coming into ours.  And the same goes for tariffs.  And that should apply only to countries that have environmental and human rights laws similar to ours.  No more unfair advantages because a foreign manufacturer is free to pollute or use child/slave labor.  Level playing fields only.

That should eliminate the perverse incentives that have caused such a massive outflow of US manufacturing jobs to the third world.  (Ross Perot was exactly right)  Cheap TVs in exchange for a decimated manufacturing sector is not a wise exchange - especially when a hostile adversary is in control of our medical supplies and electronic components used by our military.

10. We need term limits.  2 terms.  Then go back home and live under the laws you passed.  That would eliminate a good deal of the ridiculous infighting and grandstanding we see in DC.  If it was good enough for George Washington, it's good enough for every other politician.

Rant over.  Back to selling real estate.