How much for a SFR to capture the greatest appreciation

[Brooke Jackson]

Im looking at buying a SFR in a mountain community in Utah. The homes in the area go for over a million. The house that I'm looking at is for sell for $427k and needs about $450k in rehab to get it to the million dollar expectation. With this kind of a rehab it's reasonable to have an ARV of $1.2-$1.3. I would also VRBO the home for $13k a month.

Im concerned about a housing recession and if the property will depreciate over the next few years. Im also concerned about VRBO rentals with covid or other potential pandemics (Bill Gates Believes there will be another global pandemic within the next several years) and how that would affect my rents.

Im interested in this home because I feel that there is great opportunity for appreciation with it already located in a million dollar mountain community.

Looking for suggestions and feedback.