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Originally posted by @Rachel S.:
I agree that we are not seeing the amount of homeowners with low levels of equity in their homes that we saw in 2008. It follows that the homeowners who have high equity, but a sudden inability to pay the mortgage each month would just sell. This all sounds logical to me and is what I would do in their position. However, not everyone thinks the way I do. It ignores the fact that many homeowners view their home from more of an emotional perspective (shame of not being able to afford their home, hanging on to the perceived security of "owning their residence" etc, etc) than a financial one. It's this perspective that causes owners to get so far into the pre-foreclosure process that they couldn't hope to turn things around even if they had a shift in mindset. Denial is a powerful thing. I am seeing this happening already when I look at the default amounts on the pre-foreclosures in my local market. Most have been in pre-foreclosure for many months. The fact that more owners will follow this path is purely speculative on my part and I may be way off base. For my own perspective there is nothing in the current market that makes me feel an urgency to invest. Quite the opposite, in fact. Fast forward to next year, I may look back and see that I was completely wrong. With that said I am pretty confident that, even if I am, the market conditions will not be such that I will feel I missed an opportunity.
And this is why we are in business... The numbers still don't bear out massive foreclosures, even in LA. Apartments are a different deal... SFR, not yet... There are some parts of town you can by a SFR for cheaper than a condo. The deals are here.