Dr Scott Gottlieb, prior head of the FDA, on COVID-19

[Mike Dymski]

Below are my notes from a webinar today given by Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former head of the FDA, to companies in the NYSE.

• US will soon have massive testing capacity
• Confirmed cases will grow exponentially now that testing is finally getting rolled out
• Don't be surprised to see 1000 confirmed cases in a day
• By the end of April to early May, it will start to plateau (depending on containment behaviors that we are currently living)
• Schools will be closed for this school year
• The summer heat in the northern hemisphere will help to contain the spread, although it will continue to exist
• Every reason to believe that the southern hemisphere will experience rapid spread as the weather cools (expect continued travel restrictions)
• The risk posture will improve in the Fall with the following:
  • Point of care diagnostic (local swab testing everywhere - will allow early detection)
  • Therapeutic antiviral drugs will be available (not a vaccine)
  • Monthly injections of an antibody will be available (not sure what this is), particularly for medical workers and members of nursing homes
  • The testing capabilities that are getting put in place will provide a massive surveillance system to provide early detection until a vaccine is in place
  • All of this will make the virus more manageable until we have a vaccine
• The virus is very contagious (more than the flu)
• 10x more deadly than the flu
• Even without death, the hospitalization rate (15%) and critical care rate (5%) are extremely high (we don't have medical capacity without containment)
• Mortality rate:
  • 1% overall
  • 4% ages 60-70
  • 10% ages 70-80
  • 14% ages >80
  • 1 in 250 to 1 in 550 for some his age (47) - said "that's enormous"
• He recommended that his parents stay home for a couple of months
• He also felt that masks should be produced and mandated

These bullets are subject to my note taking and I am certainly not qualified in this area. Just sharing what I am hearing from the most reputable source I have. Feel free to reply.

Mike