Where is your local market headed? Has it turned the corner?

Question

I'm just curious what peoples thoughts are about local markets around the country. Share your markets status or predictions. In the Madison, WI area, I think we've past the bottom and we'll see some improvement in pricing and sales this year. :) More on my thoughts here: http://wp.me/p1dbYY-7V

Rich Weese · Answer

I'm in three markets currently. Southwest Florida, South Texas and southern Utah. I am seeing the market strengthened in all three. That is good for me but I'm not sure it would be good for rehabbers. I left Florida about six months ago because I felt there were too many investors chasing the properties and driving the prices up. I like Florida because I have a self storage facility there where the occupancy improves when houses are selling. South Texas is the same situation where I used to buy a lot of courthouse step properties, rehab and sell. I know that source would not be as good as it once was either but I have a subdivision there where the activity does increase with things strengthening. In southern Utah I'm trying a completely different method of attack which is building brand-new homes to a niche group of owner users. I will have an update on that soon.
I'm not sure turning the corner will beefit all the BP investors. It probably depends on your niche.
 Rich

Mark Updegraff · Answer

I'm in Rochester NY & Central PA.  I stick to a particular zip code in ROC where we saw our city assessments go up on average of 27%.  Yikes!  In the overall Rochester Market, prices have been flat.  Foreclosures have slowed in numbers.  Bank Owned REOs seem to be off the market.  Things priced to sell, sell. Those that are not, sit on the market.  No bidding wars, no multiple offers, very few short sales.  Investors seem to be cherry picking the best as soon as they hit.  Owner occupied are buying less house, and the number of buyers is pretty low.

In Central PA the REO market is moving rapidly.  Things are coming through foreclosure at a pretty steady state, those that don't get bought at auction are sold for deep discounts as REO.  There home prices are heading up, and lots of new development is going on.  This is all due to the Marcellus Shale Gas industry.  Here there are not many investors.  So lucky me I guess :D

Cheers,
Mark

Rich Weese · Answer

I'm not currently investing in the Phoenix area although I will be spending the month of March there and part of that time will be used looking at properties. I do have a very good friend that is been at camp keen to buy a HUD property to use as his own personal residence. He has been working on this for probably six months now with no success. He has been told that he has the best offer on a home I believe in Queen Creek Cave Creek but has still been waiting for two months for the final answer. This would tend to substantiate what many Arizona BEP members are stating. Rich

Albert Hasson · Answer

Agree with Johnson H, we have turned the corner here in Phoenix.  Haven't seen anything decent to go after in the last few months.

Brent Zande · Answer

In Charlotte the realtors all think things are improving and that is probably true, but I feel it is more just the seasonal cycle that is here again.  Things always sell better at this time of year.  A very minor uptick has happened, but we have a ton of foreclosures that have not begun to come onto the market.

McKellar Newsom · Answer

In Chattanooga, prices are still down compared to a few years ago but rents are up.  I up my rent after every turn except for my lowest end property.   Nashville seems to be going the same as Chattanooga.  Memphis prices seem to be up a bit but rents are stable or down.  Overall, it's still a great time to buy.

Chris Martin · Answer

I can tell you the obvious... that markets are local and even local MLS statistical data doesn't necessarily give a clear indication of sales impact on the street level dynamics for rehabbers and investors. As a courthouse buyer, in my area I notice multiple upset bids on more property (currently: 11SP5266, 11SP5458, 11SP5008, 09SP5590, 11SP4690, 11SP1270, 11SP3960, 11SP4578, 11SP3929) than I've seen in a long time. Probably more than I've ever seen (I don't track this specific metric.)

There are still buys, but I perceive competition has continued to pick up since my last buy 12/1/11. I buy UI POSs (last time, literally), so it will be interesting to see how 11SP3144 plays out on 2012-02-16 (AV: 117,191, loan: 100,000 on 3/07, opening bid: 42,114.00)... and  10SP6918 (impaired) and 10SP5243 (10,800 open on 99,400 note 91,657 assessed).

When the deep rehabs are getting interest, we're well beyond the inflection point for my local market. Saw this in 2003/04 after our last local RE recession.

Well past the "bottom", but just as last time, I'm looking for opportunities 'out of the market' (e.g. UIs and "real" unchased foreclosures)... and if it gets too "good", I'll just consider retiring for a while (like 2006-08.)

Johnson H. · Answer

Nick  Johnson - LOL at your profile pic! I have been put offers on 3/2/2 in North Phoenix metro along the 101 in great school districts to either flip or keep as rentals.

Rich Weese · Answer

The post by Keith and Johnson kind of substantiate my feelings that the prices going up rapidly are affecting those in the rehab market. This is one of the reasons that I left Southwest Florida. I just felt there were too many investors chasing the available inventory and causing the prices to be driven up to where there wasn't enough profit in my mind to continue pursuing them. I'm not sure that I'm as comparable perching rehab properties now at the higher prices as I was several years ago. I'm sure some areas haven't changed that much and there are always profits to be made in any area that you deal in, you just have to find the correct method to take advantage of it in my opinion. Rich

Nick J. · Answer

Johnson Hong, what are you bidding on?

Where is your local market headed? Has it turned the corner?

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