Is Dallas overbuilding for new investor?

[Eric Kristt]

So, I’m looking for a city to move to and build my real estate portfolio. My strategy is to house hack a multi family and then either continue buying multi’s and hold or move into commercial apartment buildings. I took a trip to Dallas recently as a potential landing spot and I noticed that they were literally building huge residential complexes everywhere! Normally this would indicate huge population growth but I worry that I already missed the boat. I know you cannot predict the market, but does anymore from Dallas feel that maybe I should start in a less competitive or developed city? Or my real question, is it a good thing or a bad thing for a new small fish investor to start his portfolio in a city that I currently building many many massive residential complexes that all look affordable and nice...?

[Bart H.]

Originally posted by @Eric Kristt:

So, I’m looking for a city to move to and build my real estate portfolio. My strategy is to house hack a multi family and then either continue buying multi’s and hold or move into commercial apartment buildings. I took a trip to Dallas recently as a potential landing spot and I noticed that they were literally building huge residential complexes everywhere! Normally this would indicate huge population growth but I worry that I already missed the boat. I know you cannot predict the market, but does anymore from Dallas feel that maybe I should start in a less competitive or developed city? Or my real question, is it a good thing or a bad thing for a new small fish investor to start his portfolio in a city that I currently building many many massive residential complexes that all look affordable and nice...?

I am a firm believer that you can be successful in almost every city.  At least every city that is stable and growing.

I live in Dallas, invest in Dallas but I think the easy money in Dallas has been made.  Its almost impossible to find decently priced duplex's as an example.  About the only thing that is cash flowing are off market deals with a value add component.  And those are tough to come by

Having said that I think Dallas is a solid long term market, and 20 years from now, you will be glad you bought here.

My real question to you, is where do you want to live?  I would pick the geographic location that you like and move there.  Then figure out the real estate strategy that works in that market.

I think knowing the local market and looking for inefficiencies in the market works anywhere, and imo that is a lot more important than the strength of the real estate market (assuming the area you choose isn't declining in population).