perfect storm update concern-double dip

[Rich Weese]

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/110344/what-the-double-dip-recession-will-look-like

Interesting article with great links to other info. What will the nation looklike with a double dip? How many economists now believe we'll have a 2nd dip? Those that think Vegas and Phoenix might want to read # 1.

JScott- tic, read # 10. I still have a chance on my bank closure estimate, although as stated before, I hope I'm wrong. Rich

[Jimmy H.]

Although "double dip" is the term du jour these days, I have a hard time calling it a double dip because I don't believe the economic numbers have ever been all that rosy since 2007.

If people were using CC's and HELOC's to live and spend beyond their means then we are in for a LONG time of lowered spending = less profits and subsequently less jobs; It's a simple formula.

Jobs is the real issue, and job losses are ultimately derived from lost profits - which are going to remain stagnate. All of the other indicators, economic numbers, etc. are a function of this core issue.

The longer term issues are that of taxes and education. If we do not have proper education to fill "intelligent" job functions we will never survive. Manufacturing will continue to follow cheap labor, therefore we need a properly educated workforce to cope with the future.

Taxes need to be lowered to spur small business, which is the root of our economy. We should subsidize small business more, and tax corporations - keep in mind large multinationals have invested around the world and those revenues and tax dollars come back here!

I agree that a consumption tax sounds ideal, but in reality people would just make large purchases overseas that are "duty-free" and effectively tax free all together.

I think what we REALLY need is to start a blank slate in our budget. We have a budget that has been growing/changing/evolving/building on itself for many many decades. We need to take our current gross annual budget and reduce it by 10%-20% or so - start with a blank slate - and reorganize and priortize where to spend that newly allotted budget amount.

I think Rich is right and we are amidst a bit of a perfect storm, but I wouldn't call it perfect storm number 2. rather I would liken it to having travelled 2+ years through the storm, we've now reached the eye of the storm, and likely won't make it out the other side on stable ground for another 2+ years.

Truth be told, we can remain dominant on the world stage but will no longer be the lone "superpower" we once were. Savvy invetors should diversify away from holding only dollar denominated assets.

Also, keep in mind that we have seen equally as bad or worse times in our history and prevailed. It is the perfect storm but it's not doomsday. In the 50's we rebuilt war ravaged foreign countries with our own money, our spending was more than 120% of our GDP and we came booming out of the other side.

I will continue investing for the long term and snapping up good deals, dollar cost averaging in over the next two years in case RE prices drop further. I suggest you do the same unless you believe the Mayans (and others) correctly predicted the 2012 "apocalypse"!