China Bets on US Housing Recovery

China Bets on US Housing Recovery

Real Estate Investor · Portland, OR · Member since 2009 · 660 posts · 244 votes

China said to be buying U.S. mortgages

The China Investment Corp. is set to invest up to $2 billion in mortgage-backed securities because it considers the housing market set for a recovery.

August 17, 2009: 9:17 AM ET

HONG KONG (Reuters) -- China's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, which suffered big paper losses on stakes in Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Blackstone (BX), is set to invest up to $2 billion in U.S. mortgages as it eyes a property market recovery, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said Monday.

China Investment Corp. (CIC) plans to invest soon in U.S. taxpayer subsidized investment funds of toxic mortgage-backed securities, which it sees as a safer bet than buying into the Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF).

Under the Public-Private Investment Plan (PPIP) launched earlier this year, the U.S. government plans to seed a number of public-private investment funds that would combine taxpayer money with private capital to buy as much as $40 billion in toxic securities from banks.

Compared with TALF, the new and smaller PPIP program focuses on safer toxic securities, which must have triple-A ratings from at least two agencies, and are debts guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), sources explained.

"In this case, CIC feels safer to invest and the safer it feels, the more confident it will naturally feel about its investments, as well as in the prospects for the U.S. economy," said one of the sources.

The move comes after the United States and China ended their first annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue late last month, agreeing to lead the global economy out of recession, with China seeking safer investments in the world's leading economy.

"The Chinese government is always trying to seek a more ideal way to invest in U.S. assets rather than purely buying U.S. government bonds all the time," said the source.

"Some might think $2 billion for a $200 billion sovereign fund is not big money, but it can be regarded as an innovative and positive option for Chinese investment."

CIC is in talks with nine designated PPIP managers, which include Alliance Bernstein LP, with sub-advisers Greenfield Partners LLC and Rialto Capital Management LLC; Angelo Gordon and Co. LP, with GE Capital Real Estate; BlackRock Inc.; Invesco Ltd.; Marathon Asset Management LP; Oaktree Capital Management LP; RLJ Western Asset Management LP; Trust Company of the West; and Wellington Management Co. LLP, said the sources.

Choices to be made: CIC is expected to decide this month which of the nine designated PPIP managers it will mandate for its investments in financial products such as mortgage-backed securities (MBS) under the PPIP scheme, said the sources.

The fund is likely to select several, though not all, of the firms, said the sources, who have direct knowledge of the matter but asked not to be identified as the talks are confidential. CIC cannot invest directly in the PPIP.

CIC declined to comment.

Early this year, some U.S. asset managers approached CIC to invest in their funds focused on the TALF, the sources said, but the Chinese declined given the uncertain outlook at the time for U.S. economic recovery.

They noted, however, that these TALF-focused funds performed well in the second quarter as global markets perked up following the long financial crisis triggered by the U.S. property market.

CIC, established by China's Communist government in late 2007, is keen to participate in the PPIP as it expects the U.S. property market to recover gradually late this year, said the sources.

The U.S. Treasury has been informed that the nine designated PPIP managers are in talks to receive CIC money, and supports bringing foreign investors like CIC into the PPIP program, said the sources.

In June, Reuters reported Asia-Pacific sovereign wealth funds, including CIC and Singapore's Temasek, which have been rocked by soured bets on western financial companies, are diversifying into the riskier arena of distressed asset investments.

CIC's $200 billion fund is part of China's roughly $2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, and the majority of its reserves are in U.S. government bonds.

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Real Estate Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2008 · 456 posts · 42 votes
17y

It only makes sense to expect a U.S housing recovery. The time in which it will take to recover is probably the only variable. The real estate market is like the stock market. It cycles. This was a big plunge but China evidently isn't the only one expecting a recovery. U.S. investors are also buying up a lot of assets at this time and its on the rise.

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  • Real Estate Investor · Bergen County, NJ · Member since 2008 · 390 posts · 72 votes
    17y

    with employment close to double digits and no signs of going down, I don't see how housing could be recovering. No matter how cheap houses are, if people are out of jobs, they can't afford the upkeep of a home.
    Probably shouldn't be buying brand new cars either even if they do get $4,500 off

  • Real Estate Investor · Santa Cruz, CA · Member since 2009 · 267 posts · 73 votes
    17y

    The Chinese are not financially stupid in any fashion or form, justified by the fact that their economy has grown at a staggering double digits for many consecutive years. If they're buying our mortgage backed securities, they must be seeing signs of some sort of positive economic stability that most are missing...

  • Real Estate Investor · Portland, OR · Member since 2009 · 660 posts · 244 votes
    17y

    I've been reading with more frequency that US hard assets like Real Estate are also being purchased by the Chinese.....

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/02/12/international/i083518S78.DTL&type=realestate

    http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/chinese-developers-interested-in-us-land-53448.aspx

  • Real Estate Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2008 · 456 posts · 42 votes
    17y

    It only makes sense to expect a U.S housing recovery. The time in which it will take to recover is probably the only variable. The real estate market is like the stock market. It cycles. This was a big plunge but China evidently isn't the only one expecting a recovery. U.S. investors are also buying up a lot of assets at this time and its on the rise.

  • Contractor · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2009 · 85 posts · 65 votes
    17y

    What's that old saying "Buy low and sell high" ?

    I bet the Chinese are using their noodles on this one.
    Let's see they are moving those soon to be worthless dollars into hard assets. Even if these loans go into foreclosure, buying them for less than full face value would be a good investment.
    A good side bar will be the stabilization of our mortgage markets with the infusion of some cash.
    Who knows if they pump enough of those worthless dollars back our way, they may start a recovery.

    Our new economics advisers in Washington, seem to thing pumping trillions of dollars into the economy will fix it, so the Chinese are just helping us all out right?

  • Real Estate Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2009 · 178 posts · 62 votes
    17y

    On the microlevel, I am finding Chinese people in the Chicago real estate market as conventional and foreclosure buyers, and most of the time they come with cash. Most of the wealthiest people in China come from some already expensive places, such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, etc, that price per square foot is over double sometimes triple. So I have taken a few Chinese clients around and they are shocked how cheap real estate is. In Chicago, I helped a client in May buy a $500,000 3-flat in cash (shortsale), and was pleased how cheap it was. One client is looking for a small condo for their daughter for college and we found a $250,000 1 bedroom in a great neighborhood. He said in Hong Kong a similar property in a comparable neighborhood would go for $700,000 US Dollars - 3 bedroom condos would go for at least 1 million - 3 million. Houses, like the 3 flat I just mentioned are unknown in Hong Kong and only owned by the uberwealthy, or deep in the countryside. To buy a building in Shanghai in a decent would cost on the lowest level, up to 3 million.

    I have been actively marketing to investors in China who are interested in buying US property and I have found that most people I have met from China are optimistic about the United States. Chinese are serious players on the world stage - business wise they know what they're doing... and I think we will see them more as the US becomes more attractive as an investment. There social and familial networks are key to doing business with the Chinese, and families usually make investments together. The client that I had mentioned that Chinese people find the people of the US to be a good investment. It is because of the people of the US and their diligence and creativity that gives them confidence in future prosperity, but I do know that there is lots of opportunity for individuals like us to make money from Chinese investors.

  • Real Estate Investor · Sacramento, CA · Member since 2008 · 566 posts · 356 votes
    17y

    Betting on the recovery? Guess that would depend on the discount they're getting.

  • Real Estate Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2009 · 178 posts · 62 votes
    17y

    Just sold another house to a Chinese couple. It was husband, wife, wife's dad and husband's brother, all working together to buy a 20 unit apartment building in cash. It was a great commission and I think I have now enough to buy another rental property. Cha-ching!!!!!

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 732 votes
    17y

    You're method of advertising to international buyers is definitely interesting. I have not heard much mention of marketing to international buyers on this forum or in general.

    But I think that there could definitely be an advantage to doing this.

    Foreign buyers definitely do seem to have different investment styles than Americans.

  • Real Estate Lender · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2009 · 216 posts · 112 votes
    17y

    When you buy MBSs at 30 cents on the dollar, they barely have to perform. You have to remember that these securities have a pass through rate and account for foreclosures and prepays. So what if foreclosures are happening at a higher rate. I bet there are less prepays. And are there really so many foreclosures that the securities would not still be profitable at a steep discount? I don't think so.

  • Member since 2009 · 14 posts · 2 votes
    17y

    Right now our biggest investors are from China & Japan.
    Just TON'S of money..........

    Originally posted by Ted Harris:
    China said to be buying U.S. mortgages

    The China Investment Corp. is set to invest up to $2 billion in mortgage-backed securities because it considers the housing market set for a recovery.

    August 17, 2009: 9:17 AM ET

    HONG KONG (Reuters) -- China's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, which suffered big paper losses on stakes in Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Blackstone (BX), is set to invest up to $2 billion in U.S. mortgages as it eyes a property market recovery, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said Monday.

    China Investment Corp. (CIC) plans to invest soon in U.S. taxpayer subsidized investment funds of toxic mortgage-backed securities, which it sees as a safer bet than buying into the Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF).

    Under the Public-Private Investment Plan (PPIP) launched earlier this year, the U.S. government plans to seed a number of public-private investment funds that would combine taxpayer money with private capital to buy as much as $40 billion in toxic securities from banks.

    Compared with TALF, the new and smaller PPIP program focuses on safer toxic securities, which must have triple-A ratings from at least two agencies, and are debts guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), sources explained.

    "In this case, CIC feels safer to invest and the safer it feels, the more confident it will naturally feel about its investments, as well as in the prospects for the U.S. economy," said one of the sources.

    The move comes after the United States and China ended their first annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue late last month, agreeing to lead the global economy out of recession, with China seeking safer investments in the world's leading economy.

    "The Chinese government is always trying to seek a more ideal way to invest in U.S. assets rather than purely buying U.S. government bonds all the time," said the source.

    "Some might think $2 billion for a $200 billion sovereign fund is not big money, but it can be regarded as an innovative and positive option for Chinese investment."

    CIC is in talks with nine designated PPIP managers, which include Alliance Bernstein LP, with sub-advisers Greenfield Partners LLC and Rialto Capital Management LLC; Angelo Gordon and Co. LP, with GE Capital Real Estate; BlackRock Inc.; Invesco Ltd.; Marathon Asset Management LP; Oaktree Capital Management LP; RLJ Western Asset Management LP; Trust Company of the West; and Wellington Management Co. LLP, said the sources.

    Choices to be made: CIC is expected to decide this month which of the nine designated PPIP managers it will mandate for its investments in financial products such as mortgage-backed securities (MBS) under the PPIP scheme, said the sources.

    The fund is likely to select several, though not all, of the firms, said the sources, who have direct knowledge of the matter but asked not to be identified as the talks are confidential. CIC cannot invest directly in the PPIP.

    CIC declined to comment.

    Early this year, some U.S. asset managers approached CIC to invest in their funds focused on the TALF, the sources said, but the Chinese declined given the uncertain outlook at the time for U.S. economic recovery.

    They noted, however, that these TALF-focused funds performed well in the second quarter as global markets perked up following the long financial crisis triggered by the U.S. property market.

    CIC, established by China's Communist government in late 2007, is keen to participate in the PPIP as it expects the U.S. property market to recover gradually late this year, said the sources.

    The U.S. Treasury has been informed that the nine designated PPIP managers are in talks to receive CIC money, and supports bringing foreign investors like CIC into the PPIP program, said the sources.

    In June, Reuters reported Asia-Pacific sovereign wealth funds, including CIC and Singapore's Temasek, which have been rocked by soured bets on western financial companies, are diversifying into the riskier arena of distressed asset investments.

    CIC's $200 billion fund is part of China's roughly $2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, and the majority of its reserves are in U.S. government bonds.



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