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Updated almost 9 years ago,

User Stats

68
Posts
15
Votes
Chad G.
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Bradenton, FL
15
Votes |
68
Posts

Lehigh Valley Market Analysis - Feedback Requested

Chad G.
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Bradenton, FL
Posted

We live in NYC, which according to BP 2015 Market Analysis Report is the third worst place in the country, so my wife and I are looking at nearby markets to invest in instead. Since I have family in Allentown, PA and it is only about 2 hours away, we are looking into the Lehigh Valley as a potential location to begin our portfolio. I just finished a fairly high level analysis of the region and I am interested in getting feedback on whether it should be considered promising or not (either entirely or the specific neighborhoods) as well as any additional guidance/suggestions that can be offered.

My research is as follows:

Population

The region is located within 300 miles of several large metro-politan areas of the eastern United States, including Pittsburgh, Boston, Baltimore and Washington, D.C. and is particularly accessible to Philadelphia and New York City. Population growth has generally been increasing steadily (~8.1%) since 1980 although at a more rapid pace from 2000-2010 (~11.8%). It is the third largest MSA in PA (~650K residents, ~875K projected by 2040), 68th in the entire USA.

4.4% Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate in January (Decrease of 1 percent over the year), which is better than the total USA.

Jobs and income

Job growth was 0.9% over the year.

Job growth in the past 5 years has been particularly high in Healthcare & Social Assistance (5,758 jobs or 12% growth) Transportation & Warehousing (4,567 jobs or 32% growth), and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (3,877 jobs or 54% growth) according to the Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corporation (LVEDC).

Job growth projections by 2040 are expected to be highest in the following sectors:

Healthcare - 75% (Lehigh Valley hospital is considered one of the best in the country and is the largest employer in the region with ~13000 employees, St. Lukes has about 10000)

Professional & Technical Services - 85%

Construction - 85%

Transportation & Warehousing - 46% (FedEx is expected to begin construction of a 1 million sq foot megahub in the next 30-60 days, adding about 400 jobs, Amazon also has a major distribution center here)

The median household income for both Lehigh ($54,923) and Northampton ($60,097) counties exceed the median income estimate for Pennsylvania ($52,548) and the USA ($52K).

Potential Neighborhoods

I am interested in areas surrounding Allentown and Bethlehem. For instance:

Whitehall (18052)

Median Income: $69,029

Poverty: 5.3%

Crime rating: A+

Schools: B-

Bethlehem Township

Median Income: 80,901

Poverty: 3.6%

RealtyTrac data conflicts with Lehigh Valley Planning Commission (due to Bethlehem vs Bethlehem Township not being separated in the former), so the following is likely inaccurate:

Crime rating: B+

Schools: B

Thanks,

Chad

Sources:

http://www.lvb.com/

http://www.lehighvalley.org/

http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/pa/lehigh...

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