CA Real estate's 30 yr. average is 9%, what will next 30 be?

[Jason Risley]

The 30 year average for California Real Estate is 9%. I know you don't know, but if you had to guess...what percent would you use for CA for the next 10 years? next 20 years? next 30 years?

Some initial thoughts...

1) Excessive lending contributed to a bubble in the last couple years. However, if we take out the bubble years that were contributed to by lending and also pent up demand from the early 90's, and just look at 1976 to 1990, the average is 11% so even without the excessive lending, this 9% seems to hold close.

2) Sadly our society today and in the future has a much much higher divorce rate. This contributes to potentially 2 homes today (kids having bedrooms at each) vs. one home 15 years ago. More demand.

3) A number of Baby Boomers who have prospered in a great economy and have done well for themselves will want and have the resources to move away from cold winters and humid summers for California in retirement.

4) Population in the world, United States, and CA continues to increase with more people...same amount of land. In CA, most land especially in desirable cities is mostly built out and I have yet to see land growing off the coast. Does that make the land more desirable based on supply vs. demand?

5) International buyers continue to buy in CA, NY, Florida, etc. rather than middle America...generally speaking.