The Rustbelt Roars Back

[Richard C.]

A fascinating article (by, it is worth noting, an LA-based writer.)

http://www.newgeography.com/content/004792-the-rus...

[Ryan Arth]

@Ray Browne Regarding your posit about the teardowns in Cleveland. The majority of the teardowns are in areas where demand is not high enough to produce a rebuild in the same place. And in a lot of these neighborhoods, that may be putting it kindly. The population density just isn't there and neither is the payback. 

But there have been teardowns in inner ring suburbs and beyond. I watched one in South Euclid, I know they have a handful more in the city, and that surprised me. A rebuild in some of those lots in the next five years, possible. But with rising rates, things may slow down. 

Reducing housing stock should push up prices, as long as the population isn't decreasing faster. And that is to your other point. I read the paper about Cleveland developments and such, but I also look at the census data on the City, County and MSA. Downtown vacancy rate is like 2% and they just keeping renovating more offices into apartments. 

The optimistic side of my brain says some people live downtown for five years, then move to inner ring suburbs to start families, because they grew up downtown and want to be near-ish. During this transition, new people move in downtown because the population has been steady and there has been growth. This should increase people in the inner county. The people from the last ten years will still be in the outer county so maybe everything is worth more and the population has rebounded. 

So on the ten year minimum investment, where do you plant your flag?