The FEDs next rate increase

[Logan M.]

With three remaining FED meetings this year, what are they looking for to decide to raise or lower rates?

The Federal Open Market Committee FOMC) meeting schedule 2023:

• September 19-20*
• October 31-/November 1.
• December 12-13*

Some of the figures I believe they are watching for are: 

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) data will be released next on  September 13, 2023, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. 

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/#:~:text=Next%20Release,Eastern%20Ti...

CPI deals directly with the inflation of goods, it is the the reason they are raising rates in the first place which was a result of the massive COVID stimulus.

The next big data point is employment/unemployment. 

Since the beginning of this rate increase cycle, the FED has been talking about the need to break the labor market, they have so far been able to raise rates, and lower inflation without killing the job market. The last report was a mixed bag that is starting to show stress across the economy.

In regards to real estate high rates not only make affordability difficult to swallow but also reach a point where new real estate being built slows down. If new construction slows you drive prices up because inventory drops, so there is only so high the FED can go before our inventory becomes worse.

I know some of you economists out there are screaming but the point of this post was to touch on a few of the basic principles that were are currently facing.

Many believe that the FED is either done raising rates or they do one more increase come November but I would bet that will be the peak.

[Karl B.]

I think it'll go like this... just a hunch:

• September 19-20*                .25%
• October 31-/November 1.    no increase  
• December 12-13*                 .25%

     After December it'll be a wait and see approach but with the economy showing signs of weakness I can see a hold with no further increase. 

   Hopefully our clown politicians will stop adding to the deficit (= money printing) so we can get a handle on inflation.