An Update on the Housing Recovery

[Justin B.]

As an example, the most recent report of "existing home sales" showed that 4,900,000 homes were sold on an annualized basis in November, 2013 (the last reported month). Since this is an annualized number, we must divide it by 12 months to see the estimated seasonally adjusted number of sales in November was actually just 408,333 homes. This number of existing home sales represents just 0.3% of the total number of homes available. This is what I mean by "activity at the margin." When put into this context the "existing home sales" report doesn't seem nearly as exciting.

What about new homes? New home sales were 421.000 on an annualized basis this past November (the last reported month) which equates to 35,023 new homes per month. This makes up an even smaller percentage of the total homes available at just 0.02%.

Understanding "sales" represent only a very small fraction of the housing market we must look at what is happening within the total housing market to get the real story. In this regard, we can use the Census Bureau data to see how many homes are just sitting vacant, owner occupied or being rented. From this data we can get a much better picture of the real strength of the economy, and how much of a potential "tailwind" there may be.

Read More...

Home Ownership

The simple reality is that there has really been very little actual recovery in housing. With five years of economic recovery now in the rear view mirror, it is clear that the average American is really not recovering as evidenced by the lowest level of home ownership since 1980.

Read More...

REO To Rent

While the Federal Reserve, along with the current Administration, have tried a litany of programs to jump start the housing market nothing has worked as well as the "REO to Rent" program. With Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, and the banks loaded with delinquent and vacant properties, the idea was to sell huge blocks of properties to institutional investors to be put out as rentals. This has worked very well.

The chart below shows the number of homes that are renter occupied versus the seasonally adjusted homeownership rate.

"first time homebuyers" out of the market. The problem is that when the herd of speculative buyers turn into mass sellers - there will not be a large enough pool of qualified buyers to absorb the inventory which will lead to a sharp reversion in prices.