Rate Projections and explanation

[Stephen Rinaldi]

This is the most intriguing time in the mortgage industry I can remember. Very challenging, but some optimism on rates, allow me to share some positivity:  

Rate increases this fast and this high havent occurred in my life time.  I saw that mortgage applications are at their lowest in 28 yrs!  How does it get better, well first of all lets start with the Fed.  Their plan to curb inflation was to raise rates until something breaks, well banks are breaking. SVB is NOT an isolated incident, more issues are on the horizon and this will require a bail out and/or a bond pricing relief.  With the political climate we are in we should expect this "Bailout" to be more discreet... Expect rate relief.

Also, Inflation data is better than it appears, there is a lag time especially in housing. When this data is evaluated it, its usually year over year.. The higher inflation readinf starting showing in May 2022, once new data comes out showing current inflation data there will be improvement.

I think most people woild agree that consumers are tightening up, we just need more time to show that.

Id expect rates to be mid 4's- low 5's by 2024, and with that will come two things:

1) Values on the rise

2) Refi boom

For Home buyers this is a good time to buy, with one caveat, make sure that you know you limit in terms of monthly payment, thats a deep conversation with in your family. Once that establish make sure not venture higher, as much as I think I'm right and rates will drop best to prepare for the worst.  Let your monthly payment ceiling be your guide!