Lumber Prices Down almost 50% YTD

[J. Mitchell Bernier]

Lumber prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME) is down almost 50% YTD and down over 9% Year over year. This is another indication that housing/demand is slowing and could slow even further. Not to mention that it has more room to come down another 30%-40% to get back to historic norms. This should be a sign to many of us to be patient and not rush into this market.

Add in that The FED is trying to restore credibility through rising interest rates and causing people to no longer be able to buy homes, prices are sure to start to moderate or may even decrease. How much? Only time will tell, but my recommendation is don't fight the FED and if they are on a mission to break inflation they will do it all costs. So be prepared. 

[Taylor L.]

The same thing happened last year, lumber prices fell from a high in May to a low in August (specifically 8/18/21). https://www.nasdaq.com/market-...

Prices rose again through Q1 2022, but did not reach the May 2021 high. Lumber prices have fallen since March of 2022. Prices got high in 2022, but we didn't quite hit the 2021 high. 

Commodity prices are incredibly complicated. Lumber prices weren't an indicator of a crashing real estate market last year, why are they such a sign this year?