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Updated almost 2 years ago, 01/14/2023
Housing crash deniers ???
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
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#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Key:
Did people actually say that prices would keep going up, or did they simply say there wouldn't be a 2008-style crash and that we might see prices level out to normalcy?
Personally think we just stripped all the emotional equity out of the market.
Please quote the post from any that have said that. We have all said there will be no massive correction, no mass crash. That's not the same as saying no adjustment. Your prediction is close to 30-40%, and thats higher than 08. So we are pointing out that flaw. Nobody is saying no adjustment/correction.
Know what, the last 2 years WERE NORMAL in some sense. It was very "normal" in how the Supply - Demand mechanism of commerce worked, yes, that WAS NORMAL. And all you Fear-Porn-Aholics just keep ignoring that very simple, econ 101 basic relationship of things.
The last 2 years bull-run of median home prices was an inevitable response of demand out-running supply. It's not complicated math what happens when Johnny has 4 apples, and 22 people come to Johnny wanting apples. And why does Johnny only have 4 apples, because half the apple orchard was burnt to the ground 12 years prior, and apple trees don't sprout over night.
All those calling for and predicting "collapse" are doing such on 2 OBSURD metric forecasts.
1st: that demand will simply vanish. We just went through 2+ years of continuous EPIC demand! Demand so intense that it completely shrugged off the fact of parabolic price increases, an absolute blood-bath of offer presentations, submitting 20+ offers to secure 1 pending. That demand showed just how relentless and motivated it was, which was an all time new level of motivated. And your doomsday forecast is that demand will now flip to completely opposite motive. That's not how psychology or sociology works.
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
The only "denial" going on is REALITY DENIERS. Ignoring all reality as it's happening, the entirety of information, using confirmation bias, cherry picking limited data segmented into micro-visions to prop up an infantile notion of Real Estate collapse imminently to rupture matching or eclipsing that of 2008 financial system collapse.
We are in a very big net unit shortage of housing. We have continued GROWTH in demand and NEED of housing, and now entering an economic cycle that will reduce housing unit production, thus exacerbating housing shortages all the more. Basic supply-demand function. When 50 people NEED a home, a 50 people don't like the price of the home, at least 5 WILL cough it up because THEY NEED A HOME and there is only these available. Limited options force actions, liked or disliked. Sellers/Landlords are in pricing command in a shortage environment, NOT buyers/renters.
Love this winter market, it's the best your going to have it for a long time on acquisition side. Supply is going to ratchet tighter and tighter and tighter, and your going to see this strangulation in full force come summer market. Developers will self-regulate to keep things at a beautiful parity for profitability. There is no inventory dump coming, that narrative of such is a mirage. Doom-Preachers been saying "it's coming, it's coming" for over a year now.
That's the Reality-Check....... (mic drop)
- James Hamling
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
New tech area like Metaverse, crypto token, NFT .. is also what I said as a Scam business. Too many new tech is putting money into this BS area.
I am so happy all these companies goes bankrupt, the latest going bankrupt is FTX exchange. If their employee is losing money / house because of crypto, that's good news and time to wake up. This crypto crash impacted a lot of companies in the Investment business. From Sequoia that's losing 150m to Blackrock. Another area within new tech that's collapsing is Fintech and advertisement.
But even crypto is a better example of change then Meta. Zuckerberg literally said FU to the market, investors and everybody and essentially was telling the world he was going to Will this to happen and everybody else was wrong. Which is why he is now taking responsibility. The whole market was stupid. He was investing cloud level funding and personnel into what was essentially a start-up tech to your point. people saw this coming with no economic crash.
That said greg should probably look at how much Meta has grown though and how this is basically just a bit more than a minor adjustment.
so I used to work at highest VC funding startup in 2000, everything is rosy at that time, but I noticed something wrong, the valuation of some companies that only generate a little bit of cent is going to massive valuation, it's the same like all these fintech/cyrpto/NFT/meta BS company today, once the VC realized they made mistake and there's no market for such business, the funding and valuation drys up .... from million dollar investment to zero. So my startup that time, suddenly closed the door although we have funding, it's just like that, closed the door. So stupid LOL, in our case we have product but the product not yet generating revenue, so we are late to the market. What happened in 2021's new tech, that's what I experienced in March 2001.
So Look at FTX Exchange today, so stupid, from 6 billion to zero. I guess those early investors in this crypto scam, has been scammed as well, I'm sometimes happy when these institution investors are losing money, there're just too much money being put into Ponzi scheme.
Funny enough, if they invest their money to Jones Lang Real Estate Fund, their money increased by 10 percent... crazy world
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Key:
Did people actually say that prices would keep going up, or did they simply say there wouldn't be a 2008-style crash and that we might see prices level out to normalcy?
Personally think we just stripped all the emotional equity out of the market.
Please quote the post from any that have said that. We have all said there will be no massive correction, no mass crash. That's not the same as saying no adjustment. Your prediction is close to 30-40%, and thats higher than 08. So we are pointing out that flaw. Nobody is saying no adjustment/correction.
Like I said quote the post. I've never seen somebody say no adjustment. On the more positive side folks have been saying 10%. Which nationally we are still in line with. I've also seen people post certain markets won't hit Jame's market as an example. And the midwest is unlikely to hurt or lose the growth they gained the last few years.
So since it's been said again and again. Should be easy to quote the post.
Also some of us have accounted for inflation. We knew we'd inflate are way out of lot of the issues. The numbers some of the crash folks are posting are sizably higher than 08 - when you account for inflation. Suggesting some folks haven't factored inflation at all........
You are welcome to spend the time going through 2k posts if you want to see for yourself. If we were all unified on this topic this thread wouldn't have this many posts.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
New tech area like Metaverse, crypto token, NFT .. is also what I said as a Scam business. Too many new tech is putting money into this BS area.
I am so happy all these companies goes bankrupt, the latest going bankrupt is FTX exchange. If their employee is losing money / house because of crypto, that's good news and time to wake up. This crypto crash impacted a lot of companies in the Investment business. From Sequoia that's losing 150m to Blackrock. Another area within new tech that's collapsing is Fintech and advertisement.
But even crypto is a better example of change then Meta. Zuckerberg literally said FU to the market, investors and everybody and essentially was telling the world he was going to Will this to happen and everybody else was wrong. Which is why he is now taking responsibility. The whole market was stupid. He was investing cloud level funding and personnel into what was essentially a start-up tech to your point. people saw this coming with no economic crash.
That said greg should probably look at how much Meta has grown though and how this is basically just a bit more than a minor adjustment.
so I used to work at highest VC funding startup in 2000, everything is rosy at that time, but I noticed something wrong, the valuation of some companies that only generate a little bit of cent is going to massive valuation, it's the same like all these fintech/cyrpto/NFT/meta BS company today, once the VC realized they made mistake and there's no market for such business, the funding and valuation drys up .... from million dollar investment to zero. So my startup that time, suddenly closed the door although we have funding, it's just like that, closed the door. So stupid LOL, in our case we have product but the product not yet generating revenue, so we are late to the market. What happened in 2021's new tech, that's what I experienced in March 2001.
So Look at FTX Exchange today, so stupid, from 6 billion to zero. I guess those early investors in this crypto scam, has been scammed as well, I'm sometimes happy when these institution investors are losing money, there're just too much money being put into Ponzi scheme.
Funny enough, if they invest their money to Jones Lang Real Estate Fund, their money increased by 10 percent... crazy world
It’s funny money in some respects. They are just trying to fund enough to see the ones that hit. And then quick dry-up on the rest.
That said you can always tell who are funded by VCs in Silicon vs NYC. Huge difference in expectations for the most part.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
New tech area like Metaverse, crypto token, NFT .. is also what I said as a Scam business. Too many new tech is putting mo
It’s funny money in some respects. They are just trying to fund enough to see the ones that hit. And then quick dry-up on the rest.
That said you can always tell who are funded by VCs in Silicon vs NYC. Huge difference in expectations for the most part.
All this crypto BS is funded by Sequoia, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock, Tiger Capital...basically all the elites of the elite of money.
There's a good thing that we have inflation/interest rate hikes. Irrational exuberance activity is gone.
Yes there's a crash in tech, but that's in a specific sector only.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
New tech area like Metaverse, crypto token, NFT .. is also what I said as a Scam business. Too many new tech is putting mo
It’s funny money in some respects. They are just trying to fund enough to see the ones that hit. And then quick dry-up on the rest.
That said you can always tell who are funded by VCs in Silicon vs NYC. Huge difference in expectations for the most part.
All this crypto BS is funded by Sequoia, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock, Tiger Capital...basically all the elites of the elite of money.
There's a good thing that we have inflation/interest rate hikes. Irrational exuberance activity is gone.
Yes there's a crash in tech, but that's in a specific sector only.
Some of these crypto guys are out of their mind. I had an uber driver over the weekend who wouldn't stop talking about crypto. He was saying that it's not worth his time to get out of bed for 10x gain 😂😂😂
According to him, if it's not at least 30-50x, it's not worth his time. Which made me wonder - why is this guy still driving for Uber if he knows how to make 30-50x returns on his money.
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
So what's going to happen to the tens of thousands of people (rapidly growing) who are being laid off, who purchased homes within the last year or so with a maxed out LTV? Or even ones who have a manageable mortgage but lose their job.
How about the 650k divorces every year, many of which include a home that has to be sold?
How about the millions of people that die every year? Many own a home that gets sold when they pass.
But I guess in the brilliant mind of James, these life events don't exist. Everyone is super stable, life doesn't happen, and no one ever has to sell - everyone who owns a home is able to hold on to it indefinitely.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
New tech area like Metaverse, crypto token, NFT .. is also what I said as a Scam business. Too many new tech is putting mo
It’s funny money in some respects. They are just trying to fund enough to see the ones that hit. And then quick dry-up on the rest.
That said you can always tell who are funded by VCs in Silicon vs NYC. Huge difference in expectations for the most part.
All this crypto BS is funded by Sequoia, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock, Tiger Capital...basically all the elites of the elite of money.
There's a good thing that we have inflation/interest rate hikes. Irrational exuberance activity is gone.
Yes there's a crash in tech, but that's in a specific sector only.
Some of these crypto guys are out of their mind. I had an uber driver over the weekend who wouldn't stop talking about crypto. He was saying that it's not worth his time to get out of bed for 10x gain 😂😂😂
According to him, if it's not at least 30-50x, it's not worth his time. Which made me wonder - why is this guy still driving for Uber if he knows how to make 30-50x returns on his money.
now you know why there's crash. All this people investing in crypto is losing their mind, if they lose their house too, that would be ideal lol
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
So what's going to happen to the tens of thousands of people (rapidly growing) who are being laid off, who purchased homes within the last year or so with a maxed out LTV? Or even ones who have a manageable mortgage but lose their job.
How about the 650k divorces every year, many of which include a home that has to be sold?
How about the millions of people that die every year? Many own a home that gets sold when they pass.
But I guess in the brilliant mind of James, these life events don't exist. Everyone is super stable, life doesn't happen, and no one ever has to sell - everyone who owns a home is able to hold on to it indefinitely.
dude all these doesn't matter if the number of house for sell is extremely low. in our market we only have 12-15 home to sell :-) LOL in hawaii a condo I'm waiting only appear every 3 months.
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
It's liquidity that rulez.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
New tech area like Metaverse, crypto token, NFT .. is also what I said as a Scam business. Too many new tech is putting mo
It’s funny money in some respects. They are just trying to fund enough to see the ones that hit. And then quick dry-up on the rest.
That said you can always tell who are funded by VCs in Silicon vs NYC. Huge difference in expectations for the most part.
All this crypto BS is funded by Sequoia, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock, Tiger Capital...basically all the elites of the elite of money.
There's a good thing that we have inflation/interest rate hikes. Irrational exuberance activity is gone.
Yes there's a crash in tech, but that's in a specific sector only.
Some of these crypto guys are out of their mind. I had an uber driver over the weekend who wouldn't stop talking about crypto. He was saying that it's not worth his time to get out of bed for 10x gain 😂😂😂
According to him, if it's not at least 30-50x, it's not worth his time. Which made me wonder - why is this guy still driving for Uber if he knows how to make 30-50x returns on his money.
now you know why there's crash. All this people investing in crypto is losing their mind, if they lose their house too, that would be ideal lol
Maybe James is a crypto investor (could explain why he lost his mind). He does claim to be a tech guy afterall 😁😁
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
So what's going to happen to the tens of thousands of people (rapidly growing) who are being laid off, who purchased homes within the last year or so with a maxed out LTV? Or even ones who have a manageable mortgage but lose their job.
How about the 650k divorces every year, many of which include a home that has to be sold?
How about the millions of people that die every year? Many own a home that gets sold when they pass.
But I guess in the brilliant mind of James, these life events don't exist. Everyone is super stable, life doesn't happen, and no one ever has to sell - everyone who owns a home is able to hold on to it indefinitely.
dude all these doesn't matter if the number of house for sell is extremely low. in our market we only have 12-15 home to sell :-) LOL in hawaii a condo I'm waiting only appear every 3 months.
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
It's liquidity that rulez.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
So what's going to happen to the tens of thousands of people (rapidly growing) who are being laid off, who purchased homes within the last year or so with a maxed out LTV? Or even ones who have a manageable mortgage but lose their job.
How about the 650k divorces every year, many of which include a home that has to be sold?
How about the millions of people that die every year? Many own a home that gets sold when they pass.
But I guess in the brilliant mind of James, these life events don't exist. Everyone is super stable, life doesn't happen, and no one ever has to sell - everyone who owns a home is able to hold on to it indefinitely.
dude all these doesn't matter if the number of house for sell is extremely low. in our market we only have 12-15 home to sell :-) LOL in hawaii a condo I'm waiting only appear every 3 months.
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
It's liquidity that rulez.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
@Chris Clothier @John Carbone @Carlos Ptriawan @Bruce Woodruff @Jay Hinrichs
Yesterday Meta (Facebook) laid off +/- 11k employees. In a letter to the company, Zuck stated:
the problem with Meta is company specific, they entered new unproven sector in last two years THAT HAVE NOT GENERATED MONEY/CASH FLOWS while increasing their headcount massively in the last two years.
THere're two type of tech, new tech and old tech, I come from old tech that produces tangible good and high amount of cash flow, our company produced unexpected record backlog this year, this is the highest made in USA tech components, so how come there's such a discrepancy right ? because each company managing their asset and tech investment very differently.
Facebook is making huge mistake when they enter VR/Metaverse area. That sector in my opinion is BS LOL. Who wants to buy house in metaverse LOL
Old tech is laying off and/or freezing also. Oracle was one of the first. Virtually every single tech companies is doing this, just on various scale. I've read stories of tech bros using their RSUs and other equity to put down as collateral of their loans. Now, i don't know how widespread this really is, but something to ponder.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
not true. job "growth" that is happening is mainly driven by services, not the jobs that add productivity (no offense).
Quote from @Victor S.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
not true. job "growth" that is happening is mainly driven by services, not the jobs that add productivity (no offense)
Very good point. Six-figure jobs with fully paid benefits are not equal to waiter and bus boy positions. Say what you will about the tech companies, but they provide terrific jobs. Great pay & benefits - big loss to the employee workforce. Especially since a lot of the tech companies have put in a hiring freeze.
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
So what's going to happen to the tens of thousands of people (rapidly growing) who are being laid off, who purchased homes within the last year or so with a maxed out LTV? Or even ones who have a manageable mortgage but lose their job.
How about the 650k divorces every year, many of which include a home that has to be sold?
How about the millions of people that die every year? Many own a home that gets sold when they pass.
But I guess in the brilliant mind of James, these life events don't exist. Everyone is super stable, life doesn't happen, and no one ever has to sell - everyone who owns a home is able to hold on to it indefinitely.
dude all these doesn't matter if the number of house for sell is extremely low. in our market we only have 12-15 home to sell :-) LOL in hawaii a condo I'm waiting only appear every 3 months.
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
It's liquidity that rulez.
When 100s of people is the headline when you have 200k+ Employees it’s a non event. The reason why the job market is being downplayed is because there is no room to do cuts the way 08 has from a thinning the org perspective. Middle management will take a big hit this time around (not that there as much to cut there either now) but it’s going to take massive business misses i.e. MEta level mistakes for the big cuts. There’s not a lot of that out there in the marketplace these days.
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
So what's going to happen to the tens of thousands of people (rapidly growing) who are being laid off, who purchased homes within the last year or so with a maxed out LTV? Or even ones who have a manageable mortgage but lose their job.
How about the 650k divorces every year, many of which include a home that has to be sold?
How about the millions of people that die every year? Many own a home that gets sold when they pass.
But I guess in the brilliant mind of James, these life events don't exist. Everyone is super stable, life doesn't happen, and no one ever has to sell - everyone who owns a home is able to hold on to it indefinitely.
dude all these doesn't matter if the number of house for sell is extremely low. in our market we only have 12-15 home to sell :-) LOL in hawaii a condo I'm waiting only appear every 3 months.
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
It's liquidity that rulez.
When 100s of people is the headline when you have 200k+ Employees it’s a non event. The reason why the job market is being downplayed is because there is no room to do cuts the way 08 has from a thinning the org perspective. Middle management will take a big hit this time around (not that there as much to cut there either now) but it’s going to take massive business misses i.e. MEta level mistakes for the big cuts. There’s not a lot of that out there in the marketplace these days.
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
So what's going to happen to the tens of thousands of people (rapidly growing) who are being laid off, who purchased homes within the last year or so with a maxed out LTV? Or even ones who have a manageable mortgage but lose their job.
How about the 650k divorces every year, many of which include a home that has to be sold?
How about the millions of people that die every year? Many own a home that gets sold when they pass.
But I guess in the brilliant mind of James, these life events don't exist. Everyone is super stable, life doesn't happen, and no one ever has to sell - everyone who owns a home is able to hold on to it indefinitely.
dude all these doesn't matter if the number of house for sell is extremely low. in our market we only have 12-15 home to sell :-) LOL in hawaii a condo I'm waiting only appear every 3 months.
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
It's liquidity that rulez.
When 100s of people is the headline when you have 200k+ Employees it’s a non event. The reason why the job market is being downplayed is because there is no room to do cuts the way 08 has from a thinning the org perspective. Middle management will take a big hit this time around (not that there as much to cut there either now) but it’s going to take massive business misses i.e. MEta level mistakes for the big cuts. There’s not a lot of that out there in the marketplace these days.
I was referencing the count. Twitter and Meta are unique scenarios. The rest are meaningless. Even the companies doing more painful jobs cuts have been relatively small compared to historic. And I've got a very good idea of what are coming for job cuts for quite a big portion of those companies. So far nothing is a big surprise other than Meta being lighter.
but they are all tiny cuts, inconsequential.
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
So what's going to happen to the tens of thousands of people (rapidly growing) who are being laid off, who purchased homes within the last year or so with a maxed out LTV? Or even ones who have a manageable mortgage but lose their job.
How about the 650k divorces every year, many of which include a home that has to be sold?
How about the millions of people that die every year? Many own a home that gets sold when they pass.
But I guess in the brilliant mind of James, these life events don't exist. Everyone is super stable, life doesn't happen, and no one ever has to sell - everyone who owns a home is able to hold on to it indefinitely.
dude all these doesn't matter if the number of house for sell is extremely low. in our market we only have 12-15 home to sell :-) LOL in hawaii a condo I'm waiting only appear every 3 months.
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
It's liquidity that rulez.
When 100s of people is the headline when you have 200k+ Employees it’s a non event. The reason why the job market is being downplayed is because there is no room to do cuts the way 08 has from a thinning the org perspective. Middle management will take a big hit this time around (not that there as much to cut there either now) but it’s going to take massive business misses i.e. MEta level mistakes for the big cuts. There’s not a lot of that out there in the marketplace these days.
I was referencing the count. Twitter and Meta are unique scenarios. The rest are meaningless. Even the companies doing more painful jobs cuts have been relatively small compared to historic. And I've got a very good idea of what are coming for job cuts for quite a big portion of those companies. So far nothing is a big surprise other than Meta being lighter.
but they are all tiny cuts, inconsequential.
This could easily balloon WAY beyond where we're at now.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Victor S.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
@Chris Clothier @John Carbone @Carlos Ptriawan @Bruce Woodruff @Jay Hinrichs
Yesterday Meta (Facebook) laid off +/- 11k employees. In a letter to the company, Zuck stated:
the problem with Meta is company specific, they entered new unproven sector in last two years THAT HAVE NOT GENERATED MONEY/CASH FLOWS while increasing their headcount massively in the last two years.
THere're two type of tech, new tech and old tech, I come from old tech that produces tangible good and high amount of cash flow, our company produced unexpected record backlog this year, this is the highest made in USA tech components, so how come there's such a discrepancy right ? because each company managing their asset and tech investment very differently.
Facebook is making huge mistake when they enter VR/Metaverse area. That sector in my opinion is BS LOL. Who wants to buy house in metaverse LOL
Old tech is laying off and/or freezing also. Oracle was one of the first. Virtually every single tech companies is doing this, just on various scale. I've read stories of tech bros using their RSUs and other equity to put down as collateral of their loans. Now, i don't know how widespread this really is, but something to ponder.
Usually old tech is doing cost restructuring in time like this so they let go bottom five , it is nothing serious , even meta is only let go ten percent.
I was 2001 dot com buat survivor, it becom news when layoffs reaching 40 percent scale :) meta is laying off 10 percent only and all company are still net positive hiring YTD
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
2nd: the ridiculous notion that persons will start selling there homes, in mass, at huge discounts, just to get rid of them. This is such a bizarre statement that I have to ask anyone saying such just what med's are they on and why have they stopped taking them. The vast majority of home owners today are in a sub 4% mortgage. There is 0 motive to sell and TONS of motive to sit. Nobody and I do mean NOBODY preaching this ridiculous narrative has given one ounce of sensible reasoning for why these persons are going to just dump there homes, at big loss, to then live where? Carboard or tent city? There is not 1 metric supporting such argument and dozens upon dozens supporting these homeowners motive and ability to just sit.
So what's going to happen to the tens of thousands of people (rapidly growing) who are being laid off, who purchased homes within the last year or so with a maxed out LTV? Or even ones who have a manageable mortgage but lose their job.
How about the 650k divorces every year, many of which include a home that has to be sold?
How about the millions of people that die every year? Many own a home that gets sold when they pass.
But I guess in the brilliant mind of James, these life events don't exist. Everyone is super stable, life doesn't happen, and no one ever has to sell - everyone who owns a home is able to hold on to it indefinitely.
dude all these doesn't matter if the number of house for sell is extremely low. in our market we only have 12-15 home to sell :-) LOL in hawaii a condo I'm waiting only appear every 3 months.
Look dude there's no impact of layoff yet to employment, data in BLS showing we have new record of people going to work lol
It's liquidity that rulez.
When 100s of people is the headline when you have 200k+ Employees it’s a non event. The reason why the job market is being downplayed is because there is no room to do cuts the way 08 has from a thinning the org perspective. Middle management will take a big hit this time around (not that there as much to cut there either now) but it’s going to take massive business misses i.e. MEta level mistakes for the big cuts. There’s not a lot of that out there in the marketplace these days.
I was referencing the count. Twitter and Meta are unique scenarios. The rest are meaningless. Even the companies doing more painful jobs cuts have been relatively small compared to historic. And I've got a very good idea of what are coming for job cuts for quite a big portion of those companies. So far nothing is a big surprise other than Meta being lighter.
but they are all tiny cuts, inconsequential.
This could easily balloon WAY beyond where we're at now.
So now you are talking about two different things. Are we talking about the personal side of it or the macroeconomics? Me saying it's nothing has everything to do with the macro impact on the economy.
Understand something 150k lay offs is still small potatoes. For many of the companies you are talking about I'm well aware of the restructuring and impact it's going to have.
I've also posted in this very thread the lay off counts will be much smaller than what we've seen historically and short of the two odd ball ones (meta and twitter which have little to do with the current economy) the lay offs have been far smaller than we've seen in the past. Even MS has laid off less than 1%. I made those comments months back.
It sucks for people but you have to look at the macro scenario. Ford, everyone was talking about their big lay offs and how the recession is coming now (August I think it was). At the same time they did the lay offs they added thousands of software engineers. Full picture matters and it's not even close to scary yet on labor side. Which is what is frustrating the fed right now.
@Greg R. people are giving you very good clues as to what will happen and why, and all you do is dismiss.
Unemployment is extremely low. It has/will increase, slightly. In 2009 it was 10% or so. Now it's around 3.5% and maybe it will get to 4%. Pay attention to the data, not headlines and narrative. Michael isn't talking about a layoff not being a tough situation for the person laid off - he's clearly talking about the topic of discussion here as it relates to housing prices crashing.
You've constantly referenced specific cities on here that you cherry pick, that show down turns (like Dallas and Austin i guess?). Cherry picking is a great way to bias data in an attempt to prove a point that isn't true. But it intentionally ignores the other markets that have not gone down (or slightly).
You cherry pick the data that you like as well, only accepting redfins display of average home price (which seems to not seasonally adjust their data - which is why May 2022 is the peak, June 2021 is the peak, etc). You reject any zillow data because it hurts your point. I think you even rejected the fed data, which is kind of wild. Just redfin or bust because they don't seasonally adjust, so it sort of looks like a lofty drop.
There has been and remains an extremely low likelihood that prices will crash like you expected (and still expect?). Seems pretty clear the bulk of the people on here that are putting out actual arguments/logic/data behind why it hasn't crashed and why it won't, outnumbers those that think it will crash. This is consistent with analyst reports, etc, like Goldman, who do not think it will crash.
The real estate market is not crashing and is very unlikely to crash. As the bulk of ppl on here have said, it's very possible it will correct slightly (0-5% correction on the low side and 10-15% correction on the high side, with the average guess probably in the 5-10% correction zone?).
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haha all of you I realized never work in tech company and not part of dotcom bust in 2001.
I was the victim during that period 3x. This time, true there's wide layoffs in new tech area. But for old tech even if thre's layoff the number are still insignificant. We only care if the layoff impacted 30% of engineering team.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
This could easily balloon WAY beyond where we're at now.
Sorry to say that you may not understand how the tech works. What is the reality
When I got laidoff on Sunday in 2001, next monday I got 6 job offers. OK dude :-)
It's extremely easy to find engineering jobs these days, including bartender and waitress also easy to find job.
It may not be easy if you dont have right skillsets..
DUDE if you want to understand economy dont follow the headlines but follow trendlines and inside intelligence.