Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Positive GDP growth…. Hmm)

Really not surprised that Exxon is making record revenues, seems pretty obvious that they would be. Look at Meta stock. 

 This may explain why Texas economy is growing and home market there is still doing pretty okay

Texas home market, at least in Austin and DFW is seeing MAJOR declines, which I've documented thoroughly in this thread. Home market is far from OK in TX (Austin & DFW). DFW median sold prices down almost 100k since the peak in May, and Austin median sold prices down over 100k since May. 

 These two markets that you are describing is experiencing the first wave of deceleration of what the CA market experienced back in April. Once your market gratifies back to January-February 2022 level, the price would find a new equilibrium. I don't know why your market is late to the party, in our end we're starting the new wave of melting up again lol

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Again I’ve made statements, that I stand by, around the markets and the direction. My question is simple if in 2023 we end up where 20%+ median national home price adjustment doesn’t happen, will it be because of the NOvember elections or because some of us more accurately predicted the trends ? 

The gov. is capable of making which friends they would make them richer. 

for example if R is winning, home price in texas and Florida is going to melt up lol.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Greg R.:

That would be amazing, but it's a pipe dream. Only chance of that happening is if a R wins in 2024. If so we could see that in sometime in 2025. 

I don't think it's a pipe dream. There are predictions now of the Repubs taking a 30-40+ seat majority in the House and 7 seats in the Senate (based on new polls). This kind of majority will make Biden impotent (but I repeat myself :-) and we could get bill after bill slammed through to ramp up domestic oil production.

Bear in mind that not only will this provide gas for Europe and make us $$, it also means that Europe will not need Russia oil any longer and the bear will collapse (which means the war in Ukraine can no longer be funded). Lots of changes possible in the next year.

Although yes, Greg, I agree this is more likely in 2024-2025....but I think certainly possible in the next year or so.... 

I really hope that will be the case. I'm just keeping my expectations low to avoid disappointment. Even with a sizable majority there are plenty unreliable within the GOP who talk big but would likely back down when it came time to pass a bill. We saw plenty of that in 16-20.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Trusting the govt on your business decisions is a poor way to get results.

will you suddenly state that’s why’s the housing market didn’t go to hell in 2023? 

This statement and question clearly show why you don't get it. 

 I get it just fine. I just don’t agree with it. One of the tricks to business is consistency if things don’t change you can plan and work around it. IT’s when things change that you get problems and that is as true for changes that make things easier as the ones that make it harder. 

Not to mention things that make it easier tend to result in unintended consequences - look at 08 for that.

Again I’ve made statements, that I stand by, around the markets and the direction. My question is simple if in 2023 we end up where 20%+ median national home price adjustment doesn’t happen, will it be because of the NOvember elections or because some of us more accurately predicted the trends ? 

We can also ask you the same questions. If in 2023 we see rates & inflation continue to rise and affordability become an even bigger choking point for buyers driving the price down +/- 20%, will you claim it's because of the election results or some other factor that you failed to recognize?

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Trusting the govt on your business decisions is a poor way to get results.

will you suddenly state that’s why’s the housing market didn’t go to hell in 2023? 

This statement and question clearly show why you don't get it. 

 I get it just fine. I just don’t agree with it. One of the tricks to business is consistency if things don’t change you can plan and work around it. IT’s when things change that you get problems and that is as true for changes that make things easier as the ones that make it harder. 

Not to mention things that make it easier tend to result in unintended consequences - look at 08 for that.

Again I’ve made statements, that I stand by, around the markets and the direction. My question is simple if in 2023 we end up where 20%+ median national home price adjustment doesn’t happen, will it be because of the NOvember elections or because some of us more accurately predicted the trends ? 

We can also ask you the same questions. If in 2023 we see rates & inflation continue to rise and affordability become an even bigger choking point for buyers driving the price down +/- 20%, will you claim it's because of the election results or some other factor that you failed to recognize?

Seriously GReg? Reread the posts I’ve been incredibly clear on it. Bruce’s last post suggests that if it’s a red wave then next year will be good. Which is a bit of an about face. 

I’ve made my positions quite clear that’s politics is irrelevant, especially in anything less than 24 month periods. So no you quite honestly can’t ask me the same thing - not if you’ve been reading the thread/my posts at all. 

I’ve stood by my statements and will continue to. 


 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Trusting the govt on your business decisions is a poor way to get results.

will you suddenly state that’s why’s the housing market didn’t go to hell in 2023? 

This statement and question clearly show why you don't get it. 

 I get it just fine. I just don’t agree with it. One of the tricks to business is consistency if things don’t change you can plan and work around it. IT’s when things change that you get problems and that is as true for changes that make things easier as the ones that make it harder. 

Not to mention things that make it easier tend to result in unintended consequences - look at 08 for that.

Again I’ve made statements, that I stand by, around the markets and the direction. My question is simple if in 2023 we end up where 20%+ median national home price adjustment doesn’t happen, will it be because of the NOvember elections or because some of us more accurately predicted the trends ? 

We can also ask you the same questions. If in 2023 we see rates & inflation continue to rise and affordability become an even bigger choking point for buyers driving the price down +/- 20%, will you claim it's because of the election results or some other factor that you failed to recognize?

Seriously GReg? Reread the posts I’ve been incredibly clear on it. Bruce’s last post suggests that if it’s a red wave then next year will be good. Which is a bit of an about face. 

I’ve made my positions quite clear that’s politics is irrelevant, especially in anything less than 24 month periods. So no you quite honestly can’t ask me the same thing - not if we want to address it honestly. 

I’ve stood by my statements and will continue to. 
 

Ok, fair enough. I actually agree with you on this point. I don't see anything changing until 2025 at the earliest, so I don't think that the mid-terms are going to have an impact on the housing market and economy. It would be great if it did, but I think it's incredibly unlikely. 

[Ian Walsh]

We are still waiting to see.  The crash or correction or whatever is still pending.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

In my view, politics is the most relevant to the business. In fact, it's the most influencing factor, especially in foreign policy.  

Any bit changes in politic are going to modify a bit of history and business trajectory here and there. 

If R wins, it will modify the relationship between Fed and Gov. They would restart QE soon than ever. That's my guess.

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Not trying to dodge your question, but the answer is neither. Or both. You seem stuck on the concept that there are realities that are always this or that.

I think every day is a new day, every year is a new year and every financial or political situation is a new one. No rules always work. Well except gravity....well not even that once you alter it......

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

In my view, politics is the most relevant to the business. In fact, it's the most influencing factor, especially in foreign policy.  

Any bit changes in politic are going to modify a bit of history and business trajectory here and there. 

If R wins, it will modify the relationship between Fed and Gov. They would restart QE soon than ever. That's my guess.

The way the political game plays out is anyone's guess. However, I think we need a R in the white house for there to be meaningful change in this regard. The president has way too much power over appointees and other bureaucracies to keep us gridlocked regardless of the house/ senate. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Not trying to dodge your question, but the answer is neither. Or both. You seem stuck on the concept that there are realities that are always this or that.

I think every day is a new day, every year is a new year and every financial or political situation is a new one. No rules always work. Well except gravity....well not even that once you alter it......

yes

 If R wins the massive changes would be in the energy sector just like what @James Hamling described, it's clear as ice.

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Not trying to dodge your question, but the answer is neither. Or both. You seem stuck on the concept that there are realities that are always this or that.

I think every day is a new day, every year is a new year and every financial or political situation is a new one. No rules always work. Well except gravity....well not even that once you alter it......

yes

 If R wins the massive changes would be in the energy sector just like what @James Hamling described, it's clear as ice.

And yet it will take years to impact and frankly I’m still not convinced the O&G industry will invest in infrastructure too heavily. Why? Because in a few year as the population swings and votes in blue again they could end up with a pipeline like scenario. 

Can politics impact business? of course I’m not saying it can’t I’m suggesting it’s rarely a fast impact and all about trajectory. So sure if red gets in we can expect tax cuts for the higher end but that has other consequences as well. It’s just not something I get caught up in.

Finally, I avoid politics like the plague (it’s too black and white for me), but I think people are lying to themselves if they don’t think we will continue to see swings back and forth of red and blue - The general population is frustrated and will continue to be so because the reality is red or blue - not much changes for the bottom half of America. And while many of us have jumped from middle class to upper class - that opportunity in future years is going to get less and less.

The bottom 50% of wealth doubled in the last two years, it’s a big cause for inflation. Look at their wealth continued to the top 50% and tell me though over time they won’t continue to vote out of frustration? https://theintercept.com/2022/...

 
 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Positive GDP growth…. Hmm

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/2...

 with positive gdp growth there's never an occurence of home price going down

 Just for Funsie's; imagine a red-wave unlike anything anyone imagined Nov 8th. And with that commanding position, Congress rapidly jumps into bill after bill turning back on domestic oil and gas production BUT not just to meet domestic demand, no no no, were talking produce Produce PRODUCE, jumping in to send a tsunami of gas to Europe, one hungry hungry hippo for gas at this moment. 

Whadya think the GDP will look like then? 

Because kicking US production back on, and at full steam, also means a whole lot of ancillary industry's kicking into high gear. 

I think it would be veto-ping-pong myself and not good potential of happening but if, holy cow if. 

That would be amazing, but it's a pipe dream. Only chance of that happening is if a R wins in 2024. If so we could see that in sometime in 2025. 

 If R holds congress, they can pass the bill, goes to POTUS who presumably veto's, then it goes back to congress who, if they get enough votes, can over-ride POTUS veto and "pow" it's passed.     So in that, your not correct on this, it could happen a heck of a lot sooner. The 8th will dictate. If congress goes deep enough R, yeah I am betting they'd jump on that one fast. 

Remember we have Europe wondering how to get through winter. U.S. could crank up gas production and start shipping in mass in a matter of weeks. And we are locked in proxy-war that has oil as a main support basis of our enemy, which again U.S. could crank production and be exporting in again, a matter of weeks, it just takes the permits and licenses to allow. Reinstate Keystone, "pow" there is 500k bls per day in a snap of a finger. U.S. could crank up oil production by est 1.45m bls per day in less then 30 days, if they simply were authorized. And with additional authorization there is an additional potential of another 3.45m bls per day in production to rapidly follow.      Halving the market price of oil per brl would open an artery on Rus and have direct impacts on the battlefield, because it's really hard to manufacture tanks and drones on IOU's, especially if one is loosing and becoming a hermit kingdom. 

U.S. has an opportunity to gain a seat as a major net exporter of energy supplying Europe, that's no small thing. It would massively impact U.S. economy. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Not trying to dodge your question, but the answer is neither. Or both. You seem stuck on the concept that there are realities that are always this or that.

I think every day is a new day, every year is a new year and every financial or political situation is a new one. No rules always work. Well except gravity....well not even that once you alter it......

yes

 If R wins the massive changes would be in the energy sector just like what @James Hamling described, it's clear as ice.

And yet it will take years to impact and frankly I’m still not convinced the O&G industry will invest in infrastructure too heavily. Why? Because in a few year as the population swings and votes in blue again they could end up with a pipeline like scenario. 

Can politics impact business? of course I’m not saying it can’t I’m suggesting it’s rarely a fast impact and all about trajectory. So sure if red gets in we can expect tax cuts for the higher end but that has other consequences as well. It’s just not something I get caught up in.

Finally, I avoid politics like the plague (it’s too black and white for me), but I think people are lying to themselves if they don’t think we will continue to see swings back and forth of red and blue - The general population is frustrated and will continue to be so because the reality is red or blue - not much changes for the bottom half of America. And while many of us have jumped from middle class to upper class - that opportunity in future years is going to get less and less.

The bottom 50% of wealth doubled in the last two years, it’s a big cause for inflation. Look at their wealth continued to the top 50% and tell me though over time they won’t continue to vote out of frustration? https://theintercept.com/2022/...

 
 

 Do you really think O&G that stupid to not think of such, or the R's given what's happened last couple of years.     What they can do is give, by congressional powers, 99yr lease/licenses that are irrevocable. They can structure it in such a way that it would take years of monumental efforts and massive penalties for canceling such. And, that's what they'd do because that's exactly what O&G will say it requires, some assurances and guarantee's that the rug won't get pulled form under them for ramping up production. 

I would bet that such already exists right now today in draft form. 

Don't forget, this is more then just an economic thing, we are in proxy-war with "the" advisory power, the U.S. HAS to win, it's passed the point of return, it's a requirement now. Loosing in Ukraine would mean a segregation of the U.S. and collapse of U.S. dominance on level that is just not acceptable by any western powers.     I am not sure your fully accounting for what's at stake in this, it's Europe, very literally. A Europe under Rus economic control, be it directly or via influence, means a segregated U.S.. Because the cost of alliance with U.S. can be made such that none can afford to ally with U.S. in let's say, a hot war defending Taiwan.     Taiwan falls, S.Korea is not far behind, and then Japan, the Philippines become cut off, and on and on the dominos fall until U.S. looses freedom of navigation and trade through the majority of Pacific. That's a ton of economic basis gone. 

Countries don't need to be physically invaded to be economically taken over. A few strategic points, cutting U.S. lanes, and it's economic dismemberment of the U.S. system.     

Politics dictate business potential and opportunity. One can not discount the impact of politics on business. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Not trying to dodge your question, but the answer is neither. Or both. You seem stuck on the concept that there are realities that are always this or that.

I think every day is a new day, every year is a new year and every financial or political situation is a new one. No rules always work. Well except gravity....well not even that once you alter it......

 The only constant is CHANGE. 

Things will be, exactly as they are set to be, until something changes, and then it will be as that change impacts, until the change is changed. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

The bottom 50% of wealth doubled in the last two years, it’s a big cause for inflation. Look at their wealth continued to the top 50% and tell me though over time they won’t continue to vote out of frustration? https://theintercept.com/2022/... 

What do you think the impact will be? I would imagine that a majority of this wealth increase was due to all the gov handouts, printing trillions of dollars, etc. I personally think that a lot of this will dry up, I see it as transient wealth. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Trusting the govt on your business decisions is a poor way to get results.

will you suddenly state that’s why’s the housing market didn’t go to hell in 2023? 

This statement and question clearly show why you don't get it. 

 I get it just fine. I just don’t agree with it. One of the tricks to business is consistency if things don’t change you can plan and work around it. IT’s when things change that you get problems and that is as true for changes that make things easier as the ones that make it harder. 

Not to mention things that make it easier tend to result in unintended consequences - look at 08 for that.

Again I’ve made statements, that I stand by, around the markets and the direction. My question is simple if in 2023 we end up where 20%+ median national home price adjustment doesn’t happen, will it be because of the NOvember elections or because some of us more accurately predicted the trends ? 

We can also ask you the same questions. If in 2023 we see rates & inflation continue to rise and affordability become an even bigger choking point for buyers driving the price down +/- 20%, will you claim it's because of the election results or some other factor that you failed to recognize?

Seriously GReg? Reread the posts I’ve been incredibly clear on it. Bruce’s last post suggests that if it’s a red wave then next year will be good. Which is a bit of an about face. 

I’ve made my positions quite clear that’s politics is irrelevant, especially in anything less than 24 month periods. So no you quite honestly can’t ask me the same thing - not if you’ve been reading the thread/my posts at all. 

I’ve stood by my statements and will continue to. 


 

 OMG Greg! Honestly, how many flippin times must it be said, that inflation ALSO INFLATES WAGES!     Please, do an ounce of research, find ANY time in economic history that there was any enduring inflation, in ANY country, and ONLY cost of good inflated and wages by some wizardry stated unchanged. 

This is so basic it's nauseating at this point.  

LOOK AROUND, it's literally happening NOW! SS just did a big wage inflation. Unions are now pricing in wage inflation. All over the place one can see wage inflation taking hold, happening NOW, already. 

So this whole doomsday-cult obsession that wages will go unchanged, for months and years, that people will happily pay more and more and more for everything and NOT seek more income from employment, it's hogwash! 

So, when WAGE INFLATION is happening Greg, will you FINALLY relent and say you were clueless?     Because that day is TODAY! SS is kicking out biggest cola increase in history, done. It's here, it's happening. So income is moving right along with inflation BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT INFLATION DOES! 

Come on guy, just cut it out with the skewing of things. Let's just work with what-is, the reality at hand.     Your whole "collapse" is proving out to NOT be happening. But now it's going into this phase of "oh, but it's coming, it's coming"...... 

You were wrong, full stop. Your wrong on this, wrong about wages not going up, and for that will be wrong about a '23' collapse from inflation. 

Affordability will hit RETAIL way before housing. Know why, because you can't live in a pair of Nikes can you?! Yeah, people cut discretionary spending to meet food and housing needs FIRST. Let's take a look at how restaurant numbers are doing today..... oh look at that, there doing bangin business! yeah, that's right, people are going to live in cardboard boxes before cutting out Applebee's....... 

Just give it a rest, please. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Trusting the govt on your business decisions is a poor way to get results.

will you suddenly state that’s why’s the housing market didn’t go to hell in 2023? 

This statement and question clearly show why you don't get it. 

 I get it just fine. I just don’t agree with it. One of the tricks to business is consistency if things don’t change you can plan and work around it. IT’s when things change that you get problems and that is as true for changes that make things easier as the ones that make it harder. 

Not to mention things that make it easier tend to result in unintended consequences - look at 08 for that.

Again I’ve made statements, that I stand by, around the markets and the direction. My question is simple if in 2023 we end up where 20%+ median national home price adjustment doesn’t happen, will it be because of the NOvember elections or because some of us more accurately predicted the trends ? 

We can also ask you the same questions. If in 2023 we see rates & inflation continue to rise and affordability become an even bigger choking point for buyers driving the price down +/- 20%, will you claim it's because of the election results or some other factor that you failed to recognize?

Seriously GReg? Reread the posts I’ve been incredibly clear on it. Bruce’s last post suggests that if it’s a red wave then next year will be good. Which is a bit of an about face. 

I’ve made my positions quite clear that’s politics is irrelevant, especially in anything less than 24 month periods. So no you quite honestly can’t ask me the same thing - not if you’ve been reading the thread/my posts at all. 

I’ve stood by my statements and will continue to. 


 

 OMG Greg! Honestly, how many flippin times must it be said, that inflation ALSO INFLATES WAGES!     Please, do an ounce of research, find ANY time in economic history that there was any enduring inflation, in ANY country, and ONLY cost of good inflated and wages by some wizardry stated unchanged. 

This is so basic it's nauseating at this point.  

LOOK AROUND, it's literally happening NOW! SS just did a big wage inflation. Unions are now pricing in wage inflation. All over the place one can see wage inflation taking hold, happening NOW, already. 

So this whole doomsday-cult obsession that wages will go unchanged, for months and years, that people will happily pay more and more and more for everything and NOT seek more income from employment, it's hogwash! 

So, when WAGE INFLATION is happening Greg, will you FINALLY relent and say you were clueless?     Because that day is TODAY! SS is kicking out biggest cola increase in history, done. It's here, it's happening. So income is moving right along with inflation BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT INFLATION DOES! 

Come on guy, just cut it out with the skewing of things. Let's just work with what-is, the reality at hand.     Your whole "collapse" is proving out to NOT be happening. But now it's going into this phase of "oh, but it's coming, it's coming"...... 

You were wrong, full stop. Your wrong on this, wrong about wages not going up, and for that will be wrong about a '23' collapse from inflation. 

Affordability will hit RETAIL way before housing. Know why, because you can't live in a pair of Nikes can you?! Yeah, people cut discretionary spending to meet food and housing needs FIRST. Let's take a look at how restaurant numbers are doing today..... oh look at that, there doing bangin business! yeah, that's right, people are going to live in cardboard boxes before cutting out Applebee's....... 

Just give it a rest, please. 

James, I'm honestly trying to figure out if you're just a troll or are what your deal is. You don't seem to be interested in logical and factual conversations. 

I've been consistent on the fact that wages are increasing, but NOT at the pace of inflation. Real wages are going down. Read this article by SHRM https://www.shrm.org/resources...

It's almost comical the way that you pretend to know what your talking about and claim that wage increases are offsetting inflation. Folks in the real world are getting hammered, but not according to James 😂

"High inflation means the buying power of workers' take-home pay has been shrinking. Real (inflation-adjusted) average hourly earnings fell 2.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, from August 2021 to August 2022, the BLS separately reported. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.4-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period."

"Several recent 2023 forecasts have projected an average increase of just over 4 percent for next year's salary budgets among private-sector U.S. employers, in line with the actual increases to pay budgets made in 2022 but less than half the current inflation rate."

I'm assuming that your role as a realtor is commission based. If that's the case you don't work a W2 job like most Americans and aren't going through what they are. You've been riding the big wave of the housing bubble. Inflated home prices have = inflated commissions for folks in your industry. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

"Several recent 2023 forecasts have projected an average increase of just over 4 percent for next year's salary budgets among private-sector U.S. employers, in line with the actual increases to pay budgets made in 2022 but less than half the current inflation rate."

I think both of you and James are right, however, the impact in US people is minimal because US doesn't experience buying power hit as it's still a major reserve currency.  Export coming to the US would be cheap as dollar is stronger than ever and GDP is positive.

At the end of the day, the shrinking real wage doesn't really matter because people are still having alternate choices and they can adjust their lifestyle. But not with European because they got hit by high energy price, tightening policy and a socialist economic policy for decades while producing less.

The very fact that GDP is printing positive 2 percent while the interest rate is super high like today is showing economy is just too robust.

I'm surprised as well.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

The bottom 50% of wealth doubled in the last two years, it’s a big cause for inflation. Look at their wealth continued to the top 50% and tell me though over time they won’t continue to vote out of frustration? https://theintercept.com/2022/... 

What do you think the impact will be? I would imagine that a majority of this wealth increase was due to all the gov handouts, printing trillions of dollars, etc. I personally think that a lot of this will dry up, I see it as transient wealth. 

 You already see the impact. Dallas home price is melting up.

Any excess capital either from new circulation (M2) or in the form of a positive balance of trade, is always going to the real estate market as the main benefactor. 

There's no such thing as transient wealth. Every person in US has their saving increased 2-4 times in the last two years.

It's clear as ice.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Trusting the govt on your business decisions is a poor way to get results.

will you suddenly state that’s why’s the housing market didn’t go to hell in 2023? 

This statement and question clearly show why you don't get it. 

 I get it just fine. I just don’t agree with it. One of the tricks to business is consistency if things don’t change you can plan and work around it. IT’s when things change that you get problems and that is as true for changes that make things easier as the ones that make it harder. 

Not to mention things that make it easier tend to result in unintended consequences - look at 08 for that.

Again I’ve made statements, that I stand by, around the markets and the direction. My question is simple if in 2023 we end up where 20%+ median national home price adjustment doesn’t happen, will it be because of the NOvember elections or because some of us more accurately predicted the trends ? 

We can also ask you the same questions. If in 2023 we see rates & inflation continue to rise and affordability become an even bigger choking point for buyers driving the price down +/- 20%, will you claim it's because of the election results or some other factor that you failed to recognize?

Seriously GReg? Reread the posts I’ve been incredibly clear on it. Bruce’s last post suggests that if it’s a red wave then next year will be good. Which is a bit of an about face. 

I’ve made my positions quite clear that’s politics is irrelevant, especially in anything less than 24 month periods. So no you quite honestly can’t ask me the same thing - not if you’ve been reading the thread/my posts at all. 

I’ve stood by my statements and will continue to. 


 

 OMG Greg! Honestly, how many flippin times must it be said, that inflation ALSO INFLATES WAGES!     Please, do an ounce of research, find ANY time in economic history that there was any enduring inflation, in ANY country, and ONLY cost of good inflated and wages by some wizardry stated unchanged. 

This is so basic it's nauseating at this point.  

LOOK AROUND, it's literally happening NOW! SS just did a big wage inflation. Unions are now pricing in wage inflation. All over the place one can see wage inflation taking hold, happening NOW, already. 

So this whole doomsday-cult obsession that wages will go unchanged, for months and years, that people will happily pay more and more and more for everything and NOT seek more income from employment, it's hogwash! 

So, when WAGE INFLATION is happening Greg, will you FINALLY relent and say you were clueless?     Because that day is TODAY! SS is kicking out biggest cola increase in history, done. It's here, it's happening. So income is moving right along with inflation BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT INFLATION DOES! 

Come on guy, just cut it out with the skewing of things. Let's just work with what-is, the reality at hand.     Your whole "collapse" is proving out to NOT be happening. But now it's going into this phase of "oh, but it's coming, it's coming"...... 

You were wrong, full stop. Your wrong on this, wrong about wages not going up, and for that will be wrong about a '23' collapse from inflation. 

Affordability will hit RETAIL way before housing. Know why, because you can't live in a pair of Nikes can you?! Yeah, people cut discretionary spending to meet food and housing needs FIRST. Let's take a look at how restaurant numbers are doing today..... oh look at that, there doing bangin business! yeah, that's right, people are going to live in cardboard boxes before cutting out Applebee's....... 

Just give it a rest, please. 

James, I'm honestly trying to figure out if you're just a troll or are what your deal is. You don't seem to be interested in logical and factual conversations. 

I've been consistent on the fact that wages are increasing, but NOT at the pace of inflation. Real wages are going down. Read this article by SHRM https://www.shrm.org/resources...

"High inflation means the buying power of workers' take-home pay has been shrinking. Real (inflation-adjusted) average hourly earnings fell 2.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, from August 2021 to August 2022, the BLS separately reported. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.4-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period."

"Several recent 2023 forecasts have projected an average increase of just over 4 percent for next year's salary budgets among private-sector U.S. employers, in line with the actual increases to pay budgets made in 2022 but less than half the current inflation rate."

I'm assuming that your role as a realtor is commission based. If that's the case you don't work a W2 job like most Americans and aren't going through what they are. You've been riding the big wave of the housing bubble. Inflated home prices have = inflated commissions for folks in your industry. 

 Greg, it's been well found here that you possess selective hearing.    I have covered this topic in great detail many times over, I am not going to explain it yet again. 

As for cherry picking some article to support the assumption you've held and decided to broadcast as facts. Look, I can find articles on end that clearly state that Earth is flat. I can find articles that layout in great detail how the worlds economy is ran by Reptilian Overlords. There is articles in mainstream outlets detailing how men can give birth to children..... One can find articles to support literally any opinion no matter how crackers that opinion is. So I have 0 interest in what article you throw out there because you just ignore facts and keep regurgitating baseless assumptions and armchair quarterbacking. 

You assume what I do, assume my income, assume the economy, assume what wages will be in a year, assume the Fed's intent, assume assume assume...... And then out from that comes the fertilizer of "Collapse, COLLAPSE"...... 

Inflation works in waves. You, Mr Greg, forecasted that by this time today we would be in the midst of a 30% drop of home prices on a National level, the median price collapsing by 30%, well, here we are, and not only has it not happened but nothing even remotely close has happened. Do you own that? Nope, just move on to saying how it's now soon to come.     How many times will you be wrong before waking up to fact that your whole basis for assumption is flawed? This is a serious question, just what will it take to wake you up, I want to know. 

In 2020 there was a flood of such posts like this, then in '21', and every time it's the same-exact-thing; baseless assumptions grasping at cherry-picked data to support pre-determined outcomes forecasting a "soon to come" collapse event COMPLETLY disconnected of all other factors, just keeping the narrowest of tunnel vision so to sell fear-porn. 

The next inflation wave of WAGE INFLATION has begun Greg, it is not coming soon, it's here, now, and just starting. I forecasted in 2020 with pin point accuracy, and again in '21', feel free to look them up as they are right here on BP.

I am defending the novices, those who don't have the professional background to peg what's going on and what's coming, who may buy your load of fertilizer and do financial harm to themselves rushing to action. I generally charge a lot of $ for such advisory actions. I do it here out of principle. 

There is 0 advantage to sell at this time, 0, unless redeploying that capital into a different asset. There is many positives to purchasing NOW, in this market right now today. Just because you can't buy Greg doesn't mean anything of another situation. That Pediatrist in Seattle sitting on $185k not sure what to do, YES he should get it deployed ASAP! Inflation is burning away his capital, he's missing out on the tax advantages, he's getting 0 action from such. 

Your assume everyone is in same financial situation as you, that everyone has same investing interest as you, that the world is a reflection of yourself, it is not. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

The bottom 50% of wealth doubled in the last two years, it’s a big cause for inflation. Look at their wealth continued to the top 50% and tell me though over time they won’t continue to vote out of frustration? https://theintercept.com/2022/... 

What do you think the impact will be? I would imagine that a majority of this wealth increase was due to all the gov handouts, printing trillions of dollars, etc. I personally think that a lot of this will dry up, I see it as transient wealth. 

 You already see the impact. Dallas home price is melting up.

Any excess capital either from new circulation (M2) or in the form of a positive balance of trade, is always going to the real estate market as the main benefactor. 

There's no such thing as transient wealth. Every person in US has their saving increased 2-4 times in the last two years.

It's clear as ice.

LOL, omg "Transient wealth"...... LMAO.     Anyone wanna define exactly what the hell that's supposed to mean. So, it's wealth, that what, it just likes visits your bank account? Lol. 

This is getting so out of hand with the collapse of intelligence in the U.S., we are 100% living in Idiocracy....... 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

The bottom 50% of wealth doubled in the last two years, it’s a big cause for inflation. Look at their wealth continued to the top 50% and tell me though over time they won’t continue to vote out of frustration? https://theintercept.com/2022/... 

What do you think the impact will be? I would imagine that a majority of this wealth increase was due to all the gov handouts, printing trillions of dollars, etc. I personally think that a lot of this will dry up, I see it as transient wealth. 

 You already see the impact. Dallas home price is melting up.

Any excess capital either from new circulation (M2) or in the form of a positive balance of trade, is always going to the real estate market as the main benefactor. 

There's no such thing as transient wealth. Every person in US has their saving increased 2-4 times in the last two years.

It's clear as ice.

LOL, omg "Transient wealth"...... LMAO.     Anyone wanna define exactly what the hell that's supposed to mean. So, it's wealth, that what, it just likes visits your bank account? Lol. 

This is getting so out of hand with the collapse of intelligence in the U.S., we are 100% living in Idiocracy....... 

This is getting funny too...  So lets rewind.

1. Gov printed money by reducing FFR to 0.25% back in April 2020
2. Bank said holy cow I could get the money for free
3. Bank then reduced the loan of 30YFRM to 2.5% as the 2% is their free profit money zone
4. Customer is getting 30YFRM for rate that's LOWER than inflation rate for 30 years fixed payment, is n't crazy ??? this is once in lifetime opportunity
5. So every single customer that understand how economy works, is buying home.
6. Why they are buying home ? because the gov. is throwing them money, for hard asset that's going to appreciate higher than inflation rate, for something that's going to appreciate forever, for payment that's fixed for 30 years. And that rate is guaranteed by gov. 
7. It is similar like Mr Powell saying this to Mr. Greg 
"Hey Mr Greg, I would like to make you prosper, would you please buy real estate, I give you the money for free"  LOL 

There's no such thing as transient wealth when the money is converted to real estate. It's locked there for you and for your family for next generation to enjoy.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

The bottom 50% of wealth doubled in the last two years, it’s a big cause for inflation. Look at their wealth continued to the top 50% and tell me though over time they won’t continue to vote out of frustration? https://theintercept.com/2022/... 

What do you think the impact will be? I would imagine that a majority of this wealth increase was due to all the gov handouts, printing trillions of dollars, etc. I personally think that a lot of this will dry up, I see it as transient wealth. 

 You already see the impact. Dallas home price is melting up.

Any excess capital either from new circulation (M2) or in the form of a positive balance of trade, is always going to the real estate market as the main benefactor. 

There's no such thing as transient wealth. Every person in US has their saving increased 2-4 times in the last two years.

It's clear as ice.

LOL, omg "Transient wealth"...... LMAO.     Anyone wanna define exactly what the hell that's supposed to mean. So, it's wealth, that what, it just likes visits your bank account? Lol. 

This is getting so out of hand with the collapse of intelligence in the U.S., we are 100% living in Idiocracy....... 

I want to educate little bit as well on the economic relationship between inflation,M2, and Home pricing. So here's the chart.

Blue line is Dollar M2 in circulation and Red is Case Shiller. Do you see in 2008 the Case Shiller Real estate increased but then crashed ? why ? because in 2008 the home price increased but was not supported by M2. 

In 2020 the situation is different, the M2 is rising faster than the case-shiller, then Case Shiller follows. This is normal market as home price is equal to sum of money in circulation(M2). It's true that M2 may go down as Fed is reducing the balance sheet and home price may adjust as well, but that would be mild as M2 in long term, has to grow no matter what.

What I'm saying is, both real estate and equity market is just a mathematical functions that follows the sum of dollar in circulation.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

The bottom 50% of wealth doubled in the last two years, it’s a big cause for inflation. Look at their wealth continued to the top 50% and tell me though over time they won’t continue to vote out of frustration? https://theintercept.com/2022/... 

What do you think the impact will be? I would imagine that a majority of this wealth increase was due to all the gov handouts, printing trillions of dollars, etc. I personally think that a lot of this will dry up, I see it as transient wealth. 

 You already see the impact. Dallas home price is melting up.

Any excess capital either from new circulation (M2) or in the form of a positive balance of trade, is always going to the real estate market as the main benefactor. 

There's no such thing as transient wealth. Every person in US has their saving increased 2-4 times in the last two years.

It's clear as ice.

LOL, omg "Transient wealth"...... LMAO.     Anyone wanna define exactly what the hell that's supposed to mean. So, it's wealth, that what, it just likes visits your bank account? Lol. 

This is getting so out of hand with the collapse of intelligence in the U.S., we are 100% living in Idiocracy....... 

This is getting funny too...  So lets rewind.

1. Gov printed money by reducing FFR to 0.25% back in April 2020
2. Bank said holy cow I could get the money for free
3. Bank then reduced the loan of 30YFRM to 2.5% as the 2% is their free profit money zone
4. Customer is getting 30YFRM for rate that's LOWER than inflation rate for 30 years fixed payment, is n't crazy ??? this is once in lifetime opportunity
5. So every single customer that understand how economy works, is buying home.
6. Why they are buying home ? because the gov. is throwing them money, for hard asset that's going to appreciate higher than inflation rate, for something that's going to appreciate forever, for payment that's fixed for 30 years. And that rate is guaranteed by gov. 
7. It is similar like Mr Powell saying this to Mr. Greg 
"Hey Mr Greg, I would like to make you prosper, would you please buy real estate, I give you the money for free"  LOL 

There's no such thing as transient wealth when the money is converted to real estate. It's locked there for you and for your family for next generation to enjoy.

 Going a step further, here is my economic theory of the resulting effects of this (*NOTICE for the Trolls* I said MY economic theory, this is not set as fact, yet, until happens, if/when happens).

The sheer volume, in market % of existing homes, that transacted under this "new basis" of mortgage $, created a new-basis for real estate valuation. Real Estate valuation is an anchor point that set's a basis for rental rates, because of the obvious factor that "Larry the Landlord" will not buy a property at $1,800 and accept rents at $1,600. This "anchor point" does take time to wash-out through the cycle of things, point is it creates a kind of pricing gravity center. 

With purchasing power for 1st time home buyers, and a pre-existing supply shortage on rental units, we will see a fast adoption movement for ascending rental rates, faster then a normalized cycle would empower. 

Affordability will be an issue, but with no alternative then tents or cardboard consumers will take the sociological move of altering HOW they reside, ie room-mates and multi-gen. Why some act as if housing is optional is beyond me, but we know it's not. 

As we see adoption and acceptance in consumer class for ascending rental rates, and rates pegged to that "new" real estate value basis, it becomes a cementing factor for the "new" real estate value basis.     Follow the feed-back loop on this. 

And that's the point, it becomes a feed-back loop on Real Estate pricing. The "egg" was the insanely low mortgage $, that gave birth to the "chicken" which is the new real estate value basis. And since there was so dang many "chickens", they are now the majority. And this new majority, is laying the "egg's" that are rental rates, based on those "new chickens", which then gives basis for the more "new new" egg's, and on and on in perpetuity. 

So "vhuallah" we have a new Real Estate value basis. And while it presses many 1st time home buyers out, it matters not, because every non-buyer is a tenant and thus, feeding that feed-back loop which is substantiating the pricing basis.