Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

@James Hamling not the best example because there was a massive Porsche shortage. But I agree 100%. And it’s not so much that people the upper class doesn’t spend disposable income it’s just that they already spend it. To your point lower class lower middle class have much less displayable. Your reasoning is the exact reason I gave the example of food stamps. There are small businesses all across the US that make a good portion of their income off of food stamps. It’s not so much a direct cash infusion to the poor but more to the businesses servicing them.

@John Carbone so i actually I agree with you here James is in a bubble. As are you and as am I. The difference is from a regional impact we will all see massive differences. It’s been talked about for over a month now how the West Coast is going to take the brunt of this. Post after post from @Greg H., you, @Carlos Ptriawan has shown the west is getting hit. People initially called out Texas but it seems most of the data is showing some slowing but nothing swing wise.   Meanwhile Florida and East coast are running strong. 

Anyway sure James is in a stronger region, and will feel less pain then most. Some of us in the NOrtheast (NYC,PA, NJ area) we will still feel some pain but no where near what the West is. 

For most part if you look at the views of people and examples given it almost universally shifts as you move west to east. 




@Greg H.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@James Hamling not the best example because there was a massive Porsche shortage. But I agree 100%. And it’s not so much that people the upper class doesn’t spend disposable income it’s just that they already spend it. To your point lower class lower middle class have much less displayable. Your reasoning is the exact reason I gave the example of food stamps. There are small businesses all across the US that make a good portion of their income off of food stamps. It’s not so much a direct cash infusion to the poor but more to the businesses servicing them.

There's similar input here : https://www.nbcnews.com/busine...

But according to him the single reason of internal / self-induced recession is labour cost after the Great Resignation.

It's not service class expense but service class cost, so your previous idea that minimum wage trigger inflation could be accurate.

In this example, the meat butcher experienced 10% wage increase hence your BBQ is more expensive than 2019 ;-)

[Carlos Ptriawan]

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Real Estate has, for eons, stood as the #1 hedge against inflation. It is and will stand true again through this test, yet again. Wait and see. 

 Only temporary deflation, eventually fed will realize the only thing to do is reinflate. I don’t think anybody on BP thinks RE is a bad inflation hedge long term. Fed is giving everyone a massive gift now to just wait for 12-18 months. 

Fed has to reinflate, it's just impossible to stop QE forever. The Fed already losing money in October after they're paying interest rate. You don't want Fed to file Chapter 11 LOL Another reason is the typical buyer of US gov like Japan and China gov. already thrown away their US bond, hence Fed plan to buy bond again lol

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@James Hamling not the best example because there was a massive Porsche shortage. But I agree 100%. And it’s not so much that people the upper class doesn’t spend disposable income it’s just that they already spend it. To your point lower class lower middle class have much less displayable. Your reasoning is the exact reason I gave the example of food stamps. There are small businesses all across the US that make a good portion of their income off of food stamps. It’s not so much a direct cash infusion to the poor but more to the businesses servicing them.

There's similar input here : https://www.nbcnews.com/busine...

But according to him the single reason of internal / self-induced recession is labour cost after the Great Resignation.

It's not service class expense but service class cost, so your previous idea that minimum wage trigger inflation could be accurate.

In this example, the meat butcher experienced 10% wage increase hence your BBQ is more expensive than 2019 ;-)

 Well I’m not a huge fan of food examples because they vastly outpaced inflation and it was a mix of labor, supply cost (feed was bad), and other shortages. Also you can see some companies raised prices more because there was margin to grab. 

That said the great resignation did a massive impact on all industries. @Carlos Ptriawan I know you mentioned tech a lot so you have to know the impact that 2020/2021 period had on tech staff. I know plenty of companies in Fortune/Global 2000 who lost 40%  of their technical staff. Even examples of leaders throwing money + stock at people leaving and couldn’t keep them. All industries experienced a version of that and frankly you just can’t have the lower class double income and not expect more spending.

I’ll have to dig them out but part of reasons containers got so expensive is the amount of crap the US was spending. Actually found a good one: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/1... Look at the categories + the fact that it was expected to add 10% to consumer prices alone. The upper class already has those items to spare. I’m not saying they weren’t spending more but frankly it was middle middle class down to lower class.

Now if you want to argue the upper class drove inflation on items like homes and cars - I won’t disagree. But consumerism - those categories in the CNBC article - not the upper class. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@James Hamling not the best example because there was a massive Porsche shortage. But I agree 100%. And it’s not so much that people the upper class doesn’t spend disposable income it’s just that they already spend it. To your point lower class lower middle class have much less displayable. Your reasoning is the exact reason I gave the example of food stamps. There are small businesses all across the US that make a good portion of their income off of food stamps. It’s not so much a direct cash infusion to the poor but more to the businesses servicing them.

There's similar input here : https://www.nbcnews.com/busine...

But according to him the single reason of internal / self-induced recession is labour cost after the Great Resignation.

It's not service class expense but service class cost, so your previous idea that minimum wage trigger inflation could be accurate.

In this example, the meat butcher experienced 10% wage increase hence your BBQ is more expensive than 2019 ;-)

 Well I’m not a huge fan of food examples because they vastly outpaced inflation and it was a mix of labor, supply cost (feed was bad), and other shortages. Also you can see some companies raised prices more because there was margin to grab. 

That said the great resignation did a massive impact on all industries. @Carlos Ptriawan I know you mentioned tech a lot so you have to know the impact that 2020/2021 period had on tech staff. I know plenty of companies in Fortune/Global 2000 who lost 40%  of their technical staff. Even examples of leaders throwing money + stock at people leaving and couldn’t keep them. All industries experienced a version of that and frankly you just can’t have the lower class double income and not expect more spending.

I’ll have to dig them out but part of reasons containers got so expensive is the amount of crap the US was spending. Actually found a good one: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/1... Look at the categories + the fact that it was expected to add 10% to consumer prices alone. The upper class already has those items to spare. I’m not saying they weren’t spending more but frankly it was middle middle class down to lower class.

So there's this research from wolf street taking the data from BLS. The single huge spending increase was online purchases, 

second is car dealership purchases. Next is home depot's-like  purchase (but this one is from west influx of money I think).

This is very interesting: https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10...

About the Great resignation, I could say 40% of tech folks between 2019-2022, switched jobs or functions.

It's just impossible to fill worker with 1.9% unemployment.  


Btw so back to your minimum wage theory and James' theory that lower class spending causes inflation, it seems the target of Fed action to attack labour market is actually to discipline the service worker then/reduce their wage growth....... I guess the union will strike more against Fed if they realize this ;-) 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@James Hamling not the best example because there was a massive Porsche shortage. But I agree 100%. And it’s not so much that people the upper class doesn’t spend disposable income it’s just that they already spend it. To your point lower class lower middle class have much less displayable. Your reasoning is the exact reason I gave the example of food stamps. There are small businesses all across the US that make a good portion of their income off of food stamps. It’s not so much a direct cash infusion to the poor but more to the businesses servicing them.

There's similar input here : https://www.nbcnews.com/busine...

But according to him the single reason of internal / self-induced recession is labour cost after the Great Resignation.

It's not service class expense but service class cost, so your previous idea that minimum wage trigger inflation could be accurate.

In this example, the meat butcher experienced 10% wage increase hence your BBQ is more expensive than 2019 ;-)

 Well I’m not a huge fan of food examples because they vastly outpaced inflation and it was a mix of labor, supply cost (feed was bad), and other shortages. Also you can see some companies raised prices more because there was margin to grab. 

That said the great resignation did a massive impact on all industries. @Carlos Ptriawan I know you mentioned tech a lot so you have to know the impact that 2020/2021 period had on tech staff. I know plenty of companies in Fortune/Global 2000 who lost 40%  of their technical staff. Even examples of leaders throwing money + stock at people leaving and couldn’t keep them. All industries experienced a version of that and frankly you just can’t have the lower class double income and not expect more spending.

I’ll have to dig them out but part of reasons containers got so expensive is the amount of crap the US was spending. Actually found a good one: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/1... Look at the categories + the fact that it was expected to add 10% to consumer prices alone. The upper class already has those items to spare. I’m not saying they weren’t spending more but frankly it was middle middle class down to lower class.

So there's this research from wolf street taking the data from BLS. The single huge spending increase was online purchases, 

second is car dealership purchases. Next is home depot's-like  purchase (but this one is from west influx of money I think).

This is very interesting: https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10...

About the Great resignation, I could say 40% of tech folks between 2019-2022, switched jobs or functions.

It's just impossible to fill worker with 1.9% unemployment.  


Btw so back to your minimum wage theory and James' theory that lower class spending causes inflation, it seems the target of Fed action to attack labour market is actually to discipline the service worker then/reduce their wage growth....... I guess the union will strike more against Fed if they realize this ;-) 

 At any time in history it’s hard to claw back wages given. It’s rare. With the baby boomers retiring it’s impossible. So what will happen is we will inflate. Until we even out.

And what investment will be safe and even benefit from it? 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

commodities

 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@James Hamling not the best example because there was a massive Porsche shortage. But I agree 100%. And it’s not so much that people the upper class doesn’t spend disposable income it’s just that they already spend it. To your point lower class lower middle class have much less displayable. Your reasoning is the exact reason I gave the example of food stamps. There are small businesses all across the US that make a good portion of their income off of food stamps. It’s not so much a direct cash infusion to the poor but more to the businesses servicing them.

@John Carbone so i actually I agree with you here James is in a bubble. As are you and as am I. The difference is from a regional impact we will all see massive differences. It’s been talked about for over a month now how the West Coast is going to take the brunt of this. Post after post from @Greg H., you, @Carlos Ptriawan has shown the west is getting hit. People initially called out Texas but it seems most of the data is showing some slowing but nothing swing wise.   Meanwhile Florida and East coast are running strong. 

Anyway sure James is in a stronger region, and will feel less pain then most. Some of us in the NOrtheast (NYC,PA, NJ area) we will still feel some pain but no where near what the West is. 

For most part if you look at the views of people and examples given it almost universally shifts as you move west to east. 




@Greg H.

 As I said, a shortage of Porsche's that I was not aware of. I wasn't aware of one, but I don't shop Porsche's. I did find shortage of auto's on end for some time, seemed like everything I was looking for so no surprise. 

When we look at a % of spending vs earnings, the higher income levels spend a far smaller % of income on "stuff" vs lower tiers. And it's not a gradual change either. Those at and below "median" incomes invest little to nothing, and spend 90%+ of there income. 

While many in that income level will argue it's because they don't earn enough, it's just not true. That is just a coded statement of "I need to earn more to keep this level of lifestyle I choose to have AND have $ left over to do all the other things".    Which is a statement of choices and discipline, not income. 

Americans are the worst in the world for self-lies, it's true, ask anyone who has lived elsewhere. 

It is a matter of motive, focus and self-discipline. It's not easy for the Pharmacist to sock away 15% of their income, it's just as hard as it is for the shift manager at Mc Donalds. It requires sacrifice. 

Again, a long term investment focus vs a live for the moment and figure out for the future, in the future, means of thinking.    

Point is, the upper class spending is not significant unto the volume whole of consumer spending, to a significant degree, so much so that today there is policy discussions of taxing HNW individuals for "parked" capital. To force the flow of capital back into the system. 

It is this funneling effect in our system that is empowering inflation at a fundamental level, or more so income erosion.     As $$$$ concentrates in the accounts of the HNW, it "deflates" the money supply in the economy, which that presses down wage growth, and there in economic velocity. So, we "inject" capital in the system through many means including entitlements.     But it only is a Band-Aid because that $$$$ makes it's way up into the HNW where a significant $ is siphoned off into parked $$$$, again.     This is why the disparity gap keeps getting bigger and bigger the more and more entitlements work to push $ out.    The problem is not how much $ people have, it's what they do with it. 

[Randy Gutierrez]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@James Hamling not the best example because there was a massive Porsche shortage. But I agree 100%. And it’s not so much that people the upper class doesn’t spend disposable income it’s just that they already spend it. To your point lower class lower middle class have much less displayable. Your reasoning is the exact reason I gave the example of food stamps. There are small businesses all across the US that make a good portion of their income off of food stamps. It’s not so much a direct cash infusion to the poor but more to the businesses servicing them.



@Greg H.

Our 2 supermarkets located in NYC see about 19-25% of purchases made with SNAP benefits (EBT Food, EBT Cash, WIC) depending on the week. Pre-pandemic it used to be around 7-15%, a sizeable increase. In theory, if 25% of the business disappeared today we would definitely have to close up shop.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@James Hamling not the best example because there was a massive Porsche shortage. But I agree 100%. And it’s not so much that people the upper class doesn’t spend disposable income it’s just that they already spend it. To your point lower class lower middle class have much less displayable. Your reasoning is the exact reason I gave the example of food stamps. There are small businesses all across the US that make a good portion of their income off of food stamps. It’s not so much a direct cash infusion to the poor but more to the businesses servicing them.

There's similar input here : https://www.nbcnews.com/busine...

But according to him the single reason of internal / self-induced recession is labour cost after the Great Resignation.

It's not service class expense but service class cost, so your previous idea that minimum wage trigger inflation could be accurate.

In this example, the meat butcher experienced 10% wage increase hence your BBQ is more expensive than 2019 ;-)

 Well I’m not a huge fan of food examples because they vastly outpaced inflation and it was a mix of labor, supply cost (feed was bad), and other shortages. Also you can see some companies raised prices more because there was margin to grab. 

That said the great resignation did a massive impact on all industries. @Carlos Ptriawan I know you mentioned tech a lot so you have to know the impact that 2020/2021 period had on tech staff. I know plenty of companies in Fortune/Global 2000 who lost 40%  of their technical staff. Even examples of leaders throwing money + stock at people leaving and couldn’t keep them. All industries experienced a version of that and frankly you just can’t have the lower class double income and not expect more spending.

I’ll have to dig them out but part of reasons containers got so expensive is the amount of crap the US was spending. Actually found a good one: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/1... Look at the categories + the fact that it was expected to add 10% to consumer prices alone. The upper class already has those items to spare. I’m not saying they weren’t spending more but frankly it was middle middle class down to lower class.

So there's this research from wolf street taking the data from BLS. The single huge spending increase was online purchases, 

second is car dealership purchases. Next is home depot's-like  purchase (but this one is from west influx of money I think).

This is very interesting: https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10...

About the Great resignation, I could say 40% of tech folks between 2019-2022, switched jobs or functions.

It's just impossible to fill worker with 1.9% unemployment.  


Btw so back to your minimum wage theory and James' theory that lower class spending causes inflation, it seems the target of Fed action to attack labour market is actually to discipline the service worker then/reduce their wage growth....... I guess the union will strike more against Fed if they realize this ;-) 

 The next wave of inflation is in Wage Inflation, and that pressure is already here and just starting. The Fed is 100% attacking this, in hopes to mute the inflation cycle at play.     Although, I think it's a sad thing, to yet again sacrifice people, yet again. never the less, it is what it is.      I believe we may be at an inflection point though, in which this action may blow-back in ways there not anticipating. namely social unrest on level not anticipated. 

Think about the last few years. It has been nothing short of operant conditioning of the masses that when really ticked off and jilted, go out and burn a city block down. We have seen countless iterations of this, with growing ferocity over the years and just now have finally enjoyed a lull in the insanity. But, as the saying goes, a hungry mob is an angry mob.     With all the conditioning of past years, the void of consequences, things get really bad, it could get very volatile in lightning speed. 

For this reasoning I see a social pressure limiting the capacity to attack inflation in this measure. If people lay down like good sheeple, well then what will be will be. I just don't see it going down that way, I see social unrest forcing hand to ease the impacts on the populous at large or suffer there wrath. 

SO again, a vacillation approach of actions to tappen down on inflation, then to inject $ feeding inflation. back and forth. 

Question is, at some point a sacrificial lamb will be required, a villain to lay blame of it all upon, and whom or what that will be. Our powers that be will not accept an ounce of blame, without doubt. So will it be "the rich"? Possibly a foreign interest? has not worked out so well thus far blaming Rus for oil. Or.... the system itself?    That the very system itself is the culprit and with that, it must change "or else". That some fundamental, radical change must be implemented?    In comes the Amero? North American Union?     

One thing I know for sure, inflation is not going away any time soon, nor are prices set to "crash". 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Randy Gutierrez:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@James Hamling not the best example because there was a massive Porsche shortage. But I agree 100%. And it’s not so much that people the upper class doesn’t spend disposable income it’s just that they already spend it. To your point lower class lower middle class have much less displayable. Your reasoning is the exact reason I gave the example of food stamps. There are small businesses all across the US that make a good portion of their income off of food stamps. It’s not so much a direct cash infusion to the poor but more to the businesses servicing them.



@Greg H.

Our 2 supermarkets located in NYC see about 19-25% of purchases made with SNAP benefits (EBT Food, EBT Cash, WIC). Pre-pandemic it used to be around 7-15%, a sizeable increase. In theory, if 25% of the business disappeared today we would definitely have to close up shop.

 Case in point. I know a lot of businesses rely on this and in communities people wouldn’t think. 

Which is why I brought this up in the beginning. The simple truth the wealthy buy what they want generally speaking already. There buying habits don’t necessarily change too much as income goes up or  down. Double the income of those making $18k a year or add $10k a year to those making $50k-$60k a year - you better believe they spend it on new toys. 

Truthfully not even sure why it was an argument earlier with some.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@James Hamling not the best example because there was a massive Porsche shortage. But I agree 100%. And it’s not so much that people the upper class doesn’t spend disposable income it’s just that they already spend it. To your point lower class lower middle class have much less displayable. Your reasoning is the exact reason I gave the example of food stamps. There are small businesses all across the US that make a good portion of their income off of food stamps. It’s not so much a direct cash infusion to the poor but more to the businesses servicing them.

There's similar input here : https://www.nbcnews.com/busine...

But according to him the single reason of internal / self-induced recession is labour cost after the Great Resignation.

It's not service class expense but service class cost, so your previous idea that minimum wage trigger inflation could be accurate.

In this example, the meat butcher experienced 10% wage increase hence your BBQ is more expensive than 2019 ;-)

 Well I’m not a huge fan of food examples because they vastly outpaced inflation and it was a mix of labor, supply cost (feed was bad), and other shortages. Also you can see some companies raised prices more because there was margin to grab. 

That said the great resignation did a massive impact on all industries. @Carlos Ptriawan I know you mentioned tech a lot so you have to know the impact that 2020/2021 period had on tech staff. I know plenty of companies in Fortune/Global 2000 who lost 40%  of their technical staff. Even examples of leaders throwing money + stock at people leaving and couldn’t keep them. All industries experienced a version of that and frankly you just can’t have the lower class double income and not expect more spending.

I’ll have to dig them out but part of reasons containers got so expensive is the amount of crap the US was spending. Actually found a good one: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/1... Look at the categories + the fact that it was expected to add 10% to consumer prices alone. The upper class already has those items to spare. I’m not saying they weren’t spending more but frankly it was middle middle class down to lower class.

So there's this research from wolf street taking the data from BLS. The single huge spending increase was online purchases, 

second is car dealership purchases. Next is home depot's-like  purchase (but this one is from west influx of money I think).

This is very interesting: https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10...

About the Great resignation, I could say 40% of tech folks between 2019-2022, switched jobs or functions.

It's just impossible to fill worker with 1.9% unemployment.  


Btw so back to your minimum wage theory and James' theory that lower class spending causes inflation, it seems the target of Fed action to attack labour market is actually to discipline the service worker then/reduce their wage growth....... I guess the union will strike more against Fed if they realize this ;-) 

 At any time in history it’s hard to claw back wages given. It’s rare. With the baby boomers retiring it’s impossible. So what will happen is we will inflate. Until we even out.

And what investment will be safe and even benefit from it? 

 Assets, namely those as closely associated with the fundamentals of life. Food, water, shelter.    And the "depression commodities"; sex, booze/drugs. 

[Ron Hollingsworth]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg Scott:

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash.  The reason is simple, equity.

Recently, prices have been surging.  Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted.  

 I personally know people who are living check to check and who bit off more than they could chew thinking that they had to buy during the recent housing craze. 

So I respectfully disagree... there is a house of cards that will come tumbling down.

 What percentage of current homeowners do you think make up people that "bit off more than they can chew"?  I assure you that number is extremely low.

[John Myers]

here is an article about housing prices is 2023

Sounds alot like this thread.

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @James Hamling:

When we look at a % of spending vs earnings, the higher income levels spend a far smaller % of income on "stuff" vs lower tiers. And it's not a gradual change either. Those at and below "median" incomes invest little to nothing, and spend 90%+ of there income. 

While many in that income level will argue it's because they don't earn enough, it's just not true. That is just a coded statement of "I need to earn more to keep this level of lifestyle I choose to have AND have $ left over to do all the other things".    Which is a statement of choices and discipline, not income. 

It is a matter of motive, focus and self-discipline. It's not easy for the Pharmacist to sock away 15% of their income, it's just as hard as it is for the shift manager at Mc Donalds. It requires sacrifice. 

This is why the disparity gap keeps getting bigger and bigger the more and more entitlements work to push $ out.    The problem is not how much $ people have, it's what they do with it. 

 @James Hamling so I agree with you on 90% of your post which is why I specifically commented on your original post. But a few things I want to say:

1) ON a car forum recently somebody with an $80k car commented to myself and another poster that not everybody can afford to have investment property let alone 11. I disagree; my first condo I made money on was a 3.5% down FHA. Of course that level of deal isn't there right now which he quickly pointed out. However, I walked through putting off that $80k purchase and buying an investment property and then 5 years from then the investment property would cover the car. BUT the really good news is because the cari s paid for that you waited 5 years to buy you can save again and buy a second property. Anyway long winded way of saying I agree Americans are bad at delayed gratification even if it's in their own interest.

2) I also agree that it requires discipline to save. I definitely did a better job at it when making $65k a year then $100k a year, at least in terms of % of my income - not that i ever stopped but I worried less about it. 

3) however, there does reach a point when you are making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year where it isn’t comparable anymore. It doesn’t require discipline anymore just not being a fool. To some extent I think sometimes 1 or 2 is true but sometimes really there are people with so much disposable income (I’d include myself) where it’s just very easy to save.

Anyway I agree overall but not always so black and white to me in some examples.

[Ron Hollingsworth]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Real Estate has, for eons, stood as the #1 hedge against inflation. It is and will stand true again through this test, yet again. Wait and see. 

 Only temporary deflation, eventually fed will realize the only thing to do is reinflate. I don’t think anybody on BP thinks RE is a bad inflation hedge long term. Fed is giving everyone a massive gift now to just wait for 12-18 months. 

Fed has to reinflate, it's just impossible to stop QE forever. The Fed already losing money in October after they're paying interest rate. You don't want Fed to file Chapter 11 LOL Another reason is the typical buyer of US gov like Japan and China gov. already thrown away their US bond, hence Fed plan to buy bond again lol

 Yeah, I do want the FED to go bankrupt.  The Fed should be shut down.  We should go back on the gold standard.  

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

And what investment will be safe and even benefit from it? 

 Assets, namely those as closely associated with the fundamentals of life. Food, water, shelter.    And the "depression commodities"; sex, booze/drugs. 

I do hope my question on investments was obvious rhetoricle to those commenting on commodities like @Carlos Ptriawan and @James Hamling - hope I’m not so poor on context that it wasn’t obvious I was referencing houses for us RE investors…. :) 
 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Ron Hollingsworth:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Real Estate has, for eons, stood as the #1 hedge against inflation. It is and will stand true again through this test, yet again. Wait and see. 

 Only temporary deflation, eventually fed will realize the only thing to do is reinflate. I don’t think anybody on BP thinks RE is a bad inflation hedge long term. Fed is giving everyone a massive gift now to just wait for 12-18 months. 

Fed has to reinflate, it's just impossible to stop QE forever. The Fed already losing money in October after they're paying interest rate. You don't want Fed to file Chapter 11 LOL Another reason is the typical buyer of US gov like Japan and China gov. already thrown away their US bond, hence Fed plan to buy bond again lol

 Yeah, I do want the FED to go bankrupt.  The Fed should be shut down.  We should go back on the gold standard.  

100% impossible for us to do. Never mind that you would break the economy doing it.  

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

It is this funneling effect in our system that is empowering inflation at a fundamental level, or more so income erosion.     As $$$$ concentrates in the accounts of the HNW, it "deflates" the money supply in the economy, which that presses down wage growth, and there in economic velocity. So, we "inject" capital in the system through many means including entitlements.     But it only is a Band-Aid because that $$$$ makes it's way up into the HNW where a significant $ is siphoned off into parked $$$$, again.     This is why the disparity gap keeps getting bigger and bigger the more and more entitlements work to push $ out.    The problem is not how much $ people have, it's what they do with it. 

This is quite an advanced explanation and eye-opener, thank you James.

[Edward Kanive]

Quote from @Ron Hollingsworth:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Real Estate has, for eons, stood as the #1 hedge against inflation. It is and will stand true again through this test, yet again. Wait and see. 

 Only temporary deflation, eventually fed will realize the only thing to do is reinflate. I don’t think anybody on BP thinks RE is a bad inflation hedge long term. Fed is giving everyone a massive gift now to just wait for 12-18 months. 

Fed has to reinflate, it's just impossible to stop QE forever. The Fed already losing money in October after they're paying interest rate. You don't want Fed to file Chapter 11 LOL Another reason is the typical buyer of US gov like Japan and China gov. already thrown away their US bond, hence Fed plan to buy bond again lol

 Yeah, I do want the FED to go bankrupt.  The Fed should be shut down.  We should go back on the gold standard.  

 Fed going to the gold standard would mean everything would be flipped and broken. Would be horrendous.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

And what investment will be safe and even benefit from it? 

 Assets, namely those as closely associated with the fundamentals of life. Food, water, shelter.    And the "depression commodities"; sex, booze/drugs. 

I do hope my question on investments was obvious rhetoricle to those commenting on commodities like @Carlos Ptriawan and @James Hamling - hope I’m not so poor on context that it wasn’t obvious I was referencing houses for us RE investors…. :) 
 

If you invest in equity long enough ( I know you do ), you will invest in real estate/tech when the rate is low and during tightening policy you invest in commodities. If you open the stock chart comparing QQQ to CRB you will understand what I'm talking about.

It's for this very reason, at this Q3 2022, some natural-export country is having the highest economic growth and record the best inflation of 1%. China's CPI of 2% I guess it comes from the extreme US customer spending that James and you mentioned.

Ask XOM or FCX employee how happy there're at this current moment.

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Edward Kanive:

Sometimes you have to break things to fix them. I agree it's time.....

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

It is this funneling effect in our system that is empowering inflation at a fundamental level, or more so income erosion.     As $$$$ concentrates in the accounts of the HNW, it "deflates" the money supply in the economy, which that presses down wage growth, and there in economic velocity. So, we "inject" capital in the system through many means including entitlements.     But it only is a Band-Aid because that $$$$ makes it's way up into the HNW where a significant $ is siphoned off into parked $$$$, again.     This is why the disparity gap keeps getting bigger and bigger the more and more entitlements work to push $ out.    The problem is not how much $ people have, it's what they do with it. 

This is quite an advanced explanation and eye-opener, thank you James.

 Ugh you just reminded me what I wanted to say in my main post to @James Hamling (had tried to narrow it). Which while I agree with the above its also past time we make some modification to cap gains. Not enough to destroy the .1% but somewhere after 20 million - 100 million,  we need to a higher % against cap gains or maybe even regular tax brackets. Money makes money in life (at almost all levels of income) but at a certain point it does become a bit redicuslluou. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Edward Kanive:

Quote from @Ron Hollingsworth:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

 Yeah, I do want the FED to go bankrupt.  The Fed should be shut down.  We should go back on the gold standard.  

 Fed going to the gold standard would mean everything would be flipped and broken. Would be horrendous.

One Senator last week drafted a bill asking the country to use the gold standard again.