Help me analyze this deal - first buy and hold rental

[S Moulton]

Hi folks, 

Would anyone be willing to give me a sanity check on my numbers for a buy and hold rental?  

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*This link comes directly from our calculators, based on information input by the member who posted.

my general analysis is the following:

Description: a nice, simple Duplex that doesn't need much work - if any.

How are the numbers:

• How much down: 20%
• Interest 3.0%
• Income: each unit rents for $1k/month.  Total of $2k.  Currently, both sides are leased.  
• Expenses: 
• Owner paid water ($35/month), garbage ($50/month), and lawn/snow removal ($50/month). 
• Budgeting 5% for repairs/maintenance
• 5% CapEx - new metal roof in 2016, no HVAC system, basic/cheap appliances in decent shape, septic.
• 5% Vacancy - one unit's lease is up June 1, already have a signed 1yr lease for the new tenant.
• 10% Management fees - seems about standard.  
• Taxes, High, low, etc: Taxes in NY are a little different, and generally much higher than the Midwest (home).  The property is currently valued at $94k with almost $4k in taxes per year.  
• Appreciation: ? 
• Appreciate any thoughts, or letting me know anything I missed.  
• Thanks! 
• Edit... sorry about the formatting bullets - I cant get them to leave :( 

[Nathan Zierer]

Just a few things jump off at me.

Vacancy - will this property lease up in 2-3 weeks?  8.3% is 1 month vacant equivalent. 

CapEx - You say no HVAC, there must be some sore of heat system and that will get old at some point. Also what about water heaters, is this on public sewer or a septic system,?

Appreciation - I don't count on appreciation.  I look at that as a bonus when I go to sell because its not guaranteed and has many factors that can play into it. 

Closing costs of $3,800 seems a little low with financing, if its under $200,000 purchase I just plan on $5,000.  

And do you have an inspection report on this, because something will probably need to be fixed, just kick in at least $1,500 just a safety. If you don't use it then great but at least you have something.

Sorry if this is kind of long and a downer, just thinking of any possible holes for you to consider and check off.