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Updated over 11 years ago on . Most recent reply
Do I Rehab - or Run?
I live in a part of the country (Northern New York) that will probably never recover from the last recession. Actually, it was economically depressed going into it - and has been for the last 20 years according to the veteran locals. Homes typically sit on the market for two or three years before they sell. However, there IS a strong rental market...since most people can't afford to walk into a bank and get a loan. Most people end up renting to HUD/Section 8 or SSI folks, among others. Poverty is a huge issue here. My sense is this: this is not an environment for "fix-and-flip". I am looking at a long-term "buy and hold" strategy.
I have looked at the neighborhood, walked it several times and collected what data I can about the property and its neighbors. Average rents in the area are $581.00 for mainly small, dark, two-bedroom apartments. Average age (close to downtown) is 100-160 years old. There is nothing under 15 years old. A completely renovated (nicely done) old building with four brand new, 2/2 apartments are sitting empty at $1175 a month and have been for several months since completion.
There are PLENTY of low-priced SFRs and multi-families for sale here, typically needing updating. I am looking at a duplex right now. The price is $11,000. It is 2400 sf, both 2/2, big rooms, nice light - has already been gutted on one side and needs it on the other. New electric and some new plumbing. A new roof was put on in 2009 - but it's started to fail already. Structurally sound - although it needs the porch torn off and replaced. It sits on a .30 acre city lot. Owner bought it at foreclosure for $4700.00 and then ran out of money.
Anyway, with work, it might be a "fixer-upper". ;-)
Regardless, at what point is a house too far "gone" to invest further in? Extremely conservative number crunching indicates I could make $600.00 a month net from this property AFTER it is rehabbed. Rehab estimates have ranged from $40,000 to $55,000. Comps are really difficult since things sell so slowly - there is nothing from the last six months even to consider. City-data rates are between on home values is $78000 and $80000. Other triplexs' and a four-plex within one block are asking between $74000 and $79000...and they've been on the market for a year or more. I sense that even after rehab it wouldn't really appreciate in the market here. I would probably be able to sell it for what I had into it - nothing more - if I decided to sell. But, since I'm taking a buy-and-hold strategy - is this germane to the discussion, even? I would probably break-even on a sale, and it would take 7 years (I approximate) to get all of my money back that I've put into it.
So - is this property worth the significant investment of cash - given the poorer neighborhood, current market values and its condition?
Do I rehab - or run - from this property?
Any and all input gratefully appreciated!