Help Analyzing a PCB Property

[Carolann Hosey]

Hey! I am looking at my first STR property, and this one is giving me analysis paralysis :). It is a condo on S Thomas Drive. The agent said the 1 bedroom units, in 2019 grossed $29k however AirDNA is saying $41k for that property.

Anyway, here are the numbers. 

If I use the property history of $30k rental a year, and divide by 12, average STR income is $2550 a month. HOA is $465, taxes about $170 insurance $70 Capex 5%, Booking fees 3%, ROI is 4.5%

But, if I do the AirDNA rental income projection, the ROI is 24%!!!!

At $199,999 its rental ready, but can use some work, however there are no other comps in the bulking to determine the ARV but with $20k in repairs, I estimate $220k in value, making it a wash (for now).

I need help!! Those rental projections are so vastly different!!

$2550 Income projection