[Calc Review] Help me analyze this deal

[Thomas Phu]

Hello BiggerPockets community! Can you please help me analyze this deal.
Property type/description:
2 Family - unit 1: 3bd/1b + Unit 2: 4bd/2b
Market rent in area: 4beds/1bath (rare): approximately $2000-2200 / 3bd/1bath: approximately $1800-1950

Utilities are separate  

Property Condition is fair: 

1. Bathroom needs updating but still in okay condition
   
2. overall property condition is good, move in ready but needs slight touch up
   

Currently: unit 2 is being rented for $1700 (below market), as they are good long term tenants

Unit 1: is currently vacant, pervious tenants just recently moved out was renting for 1600

Asking price: $449,000

My offer price: $460,000

Dp: 15%, Conventional loan

Pmi: $90/month

Variable expenses: 25% (including water)

wont be cash flowing until I can get market rent for Unit 2:

At Market rent:

Please let me know what you think about these numbers? Do you think these calculations are realistic?

@Massachusetts @Rental Property @investment Property

[Aaron Montague]

@Thomas Phu

What are your real estate investing goals?  Is a 5% Cash on Cash return part of those goals?

My initial thoughts:

You need 10% for Property Management

Your Maintenance plus Cap Ex costs are too high unless this is a giant, old place in need of tons of repairs. I'd probably set this number at 300-350/month.

Vacancy seems high. MA markets don't usually have too much trouble renting. I use 8.3% here which represents 1 vacant month per apartment per year.  This lets you get in and do longer term work occasionally.

Garbage seems low.  Only $10/month for a duplex strikes me as wishful thinking. More power to you if you can get that price however.

Do you actually have a lender that will give you a 15% loan on a non-owner occupied investment property? I certainly don't know all the lenders in MA though I do talk to 15-20 each month and no one that I know has this type of loan. Again, this is a good thing if you have access to it, it just seems strange to me.

HOWEVER, if you can afford 15% on this place, can you afford 20%? That would give you about $200 more in cash flow per month with the lower P&I plus lack of PMI.